NFL Week 14 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 14 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 14: December 5 – 9, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 14.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800 (11.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7300 (12.17% of cap). Tannehill’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Raiders (6-6) has the game total at 47 points with the Titans (7-5) as -2.5 point road favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 22.25 points.

Tannehill posted a 17/22, 182, 2:0 passing line with 4-5-0 with a lost fumble on the ground at Indianapolis (12th vs. QBs) last week. Pat Mahomes logged a 15/29, 175, 1:0 passing line and 3-25-1 on the ground against the Raiders last week.

The Raiders’ defense ranks 27th vs. QBs and 12th over the past four weeks in fantasy points allowed.

Tannehill averaged an extremely efficient 140.3 passer rating over his past three games, which he will need to continue to compensate for his low volume in a Derrick Henry led offense. The Raiders’ defense doesn’t offer an imposing obstacle for Tannehill.

Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000 (12% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7400 (12.33% of cap). Fitzpatrick’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Jets (4-8) has the game total at 46 points with the Dolphins (3-9) as +6 point road dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 20 points and the Jets are currently at 26 points.

Fitzpatrick posted a 27/39, 365, 3:1 passing line with 3-2-0 on the ground against Philadelphia (18th vs. QBs) last week, good for a QB1/QB3 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Andy Dalton logged a 22/37, 243, 1:0 passing line against the Jets last week.

The Jets’ defense ranks 15th vs. QBs and 11th over the past four weeks in fantasy points allowed.

The Jets’ defense remains a pass-funnel for Fitzpatrick to continue his YOLO ways. Fitzpatrick scored over 23 fantasy points in their week 9 meeting. The Jets’ offense overall would catch a big break if S Jamal Adams (ankle) were to miss this week. SCB Brian Poole (concussion) is currently in the protocol as well.
UPDATE:
Poole has been ruled out and Adams is listed as doubtful.

Sam Darnold (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000 (12% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.83% of cap). Darnold’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

Darnold posted a 28/48, 239, 0:0 passing line with 2-9-0 on the ground at Cincinnati (24th vs. QBs) last week. Carson Wentz logged a 28/46, 310, 3:1 passing line at Miami last week, good for a QB3/QB4 finish on DK/FD, respectively.

The Dolphins’ defense ranks 28th vs. QBs and 29th over the past four weeks in fantasy points allowed.

Darnold had his receivers hurt him with several bad drops last week, but that should be an outlier, and he gets a nice bounce-back spot as home favorites.

Running Back

Devonta Freeman (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400 (10.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). Freeman’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/25th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Panthers (5-7) has the game total at 47.5 points with the Falcons (3-9) as -3 point home favorites. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Panthers are currently at 22.25 points.

Freeman posted a 17-51-0 rush line and 4-13-0 on 5 targets with 62 snaps (67%) against New Orleans (5th vs. RBs) last week. Washington RBs combined for a 26-242-3 rush line (that’s a 9.31 YPC avg. sheesh) and 3-23-0 on 5 targets at Carolina last week.

The Panthers’ defense ranks 31st against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 29th over the past four weeks.

Freeman gets a sweet draw this week with upside outperform his cost.

James White (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6000 (10% of cap). White’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/25th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Chiefs (8-4) has the game total at 48.5 points with the Patriots (10-2) as -3 point home favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 22.75 points.

White posted a 14-79-0 rush line and 8-98-2 on 11 targets with 68 snaps (78%) at Houston (28th vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB1 finish on both DK and FD. The Raiders’ RBs combined for a 22-115-0 rushing line and 6-63-0 on 7 targets at Kansas City last week.

The Chiefs’ defense ranks last against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 28th over the past four weeks.

White benefited from game-script last week as the Patriots were down early to the Texans. It would make a lot of sense for the Patriots to pound Sony Michel as long as possible, keeping Mahomes off the field. White should remain involved in this one however, especially if the Chiefs were to take an early lead, as he’s essentially New England’s WR2. White’s targets, catches, and yards all rank 2nd on the team behind WR1 Julian Edelman.

Wide Receiver

Zach Pascal (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.17% of cap). Pascal’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/30th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bucs (5-7) has the game total at 47 points with the Colts (6-6) as +3 point road dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Colts are currently at 22 points.

Pascal logged a 7-109-0 receiving line on 10 targets with 72 snaps (100%) against Tennessee (17th vs. WRs) last week, good for the WR13/WR18 finish on DK/FD, respectively. Jacksonville WRs combined for a 13-181-1 receiving line on 22 targets against Tampa Bay last week.

The Bucs rank last vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and last over the past four weeks.

With TY Hilton (calf) expected to miss again, Pascal provides for a value option with the nuts matchup against a pass-funnel defense. WR Parris Campbell (hand) is expected to make his return after missing the past four games, however.

Tight End

Ian Thomas (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500 (5% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4000 (6.67% of cap). Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 42nd/58th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Falcons (3-9) has the game total at 47.5 points with the Panthers (5-7) as +3 point road dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 25.25 points and the Panthers are currently at 22.25 points.

Thomas posted a 4-24-0 receiving line on 4 targets with 32 snaps (43%) against Washington (23rd vs. TEs) last week. New Orleans TEs combined for a 4-87-0 line on 8 targets at Atlanta last week.

The Falcons’ defense ranks 14th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 11th over the past four weeks.

TE Greg Olsen (concussion) was knocked out cold last week and is currently in the protocol. Olsen put up a 3-22-0 on 3 targets with 39 snaps (52%) last week. With Olsen tentatively expected to miss this week, Thomas should see a 75% snap rate floor at the stone-minimum TE price tag.
UPDATE:
Olsen has been ruled out this week.

Jack Doyle (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.33% of cap). Doyle’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bucs (5-7) has the game total at 47 points with the Colts (6-6) as +3 point road dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Colts are currently at 22 points.

Doyle posted a 6-73-1 receiving line on 11 targets (team high) with 68 snaps (94%) at Indianapolis (18th vs. TEs) last week.

The Bucs’ defense ranks 29th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 3rd over the past four weeks. Jared Cook was the only legit TE the Bucs faced the past month as Arizona and Jacksonville hardly use TEs in the receiving game.

Doyle should continue to serve as the Colts’ “WR2” this week in a cushy soft matchup.

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