NFL Week 14 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 14 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 14: December 5 – 9, 2019

We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 14.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made as new info comes to light.

Defense

Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2300 (4.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3800 (6.33% of cap). The Bucs’ salary ranks them 22nd/13th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Colts (6-6) has the game total at 47 points with the Bucs (5-7) as -3 point home favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Colts are currently at 22 points.

At Jacksonville last week, the Bucs’ defense logged 5 sacks, 2 picks, 2 recovered fumbles with a TD return, and allowed 11 points, good for 23 fantasy points and the DST1 finish. At Indianapolis last week, the Titans’ defense recorded 3 sacks, 2 picks, 1 fumble recovery, 2 blocked kicks with one returned for a TD, and held the Colts to 17 points, good for 20 fantasy points and a DST3 finish.

The Colts give up the 15th most fantasy points to opposing defenses while the Bucs’ defense is the 13th highest scoring DST.

The Bucs’ defense has averaged 19.5 fantasy points over the past two games. The Colts’ injury-riddled offense could offer an exploitable matchup for an improving Bucs’ defense as home favorites.

Indianapolis Colts – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2400 (4.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4000 (6.67% of cap). The Colts’ salary ranks them 20th/12th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

Against the Titans last week, the Colts’ defense logged 6 sacks, 2 recovered fumbles, and allowed 25 offensive points, good for a DST10 finish. Against the Bucs last week, the Jaguars recorded 4 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 22 offensive points.

The Bucs toss up the most interceptions (20) and allow the 7th (tied) most sacks (40). Jameis Winston remains a weekly target for opposing defenses and the Colts are a cheap DK play option with potential upside.

Tennessee Titans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600 (5.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4400 (7.33% of cap). The Titans’ salary ranks them 18th/6th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Raiders (6-6) has the game total at 47 points with the Titans (7-5) as -2.5 point road favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 22.25 points.

The Raiders have given up an average of 16 fantasy points/gm. to opposing defenses over their past three games while the Titans’ defense has averaged 12.3 fantasy points/gm. over their past three (all wins). The Titans’ defense ranks 7th in fantasy points scored.

The Titans are trending up with decent enough play on both sides of the ball, and could make for a relatively lower-owned, cheaper play against a non-explosive Raiders’ offense.

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