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NFL Week 13 DFS Value Player Picks Nov 2018
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NFL Week 13: November 30 – December 4, 2017

We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 13.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thurs – Mon).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Josh McCown (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. McCown’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK. McCown posted a 19/36, 307, 3:0 line and 2-28-0 on the ground with a lost fumble against Carolina last week. McCown’s fantasy points of 29.08/25.08 ranked him 3rd/4th on DK/FD, respectively. McCown’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/5th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 44 points with the Jets as +3.5 point home dogs. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 20.25 points and the Chiefs are currently at 23.75 points.

The Chiefs rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to QBs, 31st to WRS, and 20th in DVOA against the pass. The Chiefs also rank 28th in pass yards allowed with 245.6/gm and 14th in points allowed with 21.5/gm. Tyrod Taylor put up a 19/29, 183, 1:0 line and 9-27-0 on the ground at Kansas City last week.

McCown averages 18.5 (DK scoring) fantasy points in his six home games this season and gets an easier draw this week. He’s still under-priced on DK.

Case Keenum (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Keenum’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Keenum posted a 21/30, 282, 2:0 line and 7-20-1 on the ground at Detroit last week. Keenum’s fantasy points of 27.28 ranked him 4th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively. Keenum’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Falcons has the game total at 47.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Vikings as +3 point road dogs. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 22.25 points and the Falcons are currently at 25.25 points.

The Falcons rank 18th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and in DVOA against the pass. The Falcons also rank 8th in pass yards allowed with 207.9/gm and 13th in points allowed with 20.9/gm. Ryan Fitzpatrick posted a 27/44, 283, 0:0 line at Atlanta last week.

CB Desmond Trufant (concussion) was knocked out of last week’s game and is currently in the protocol. His status for this week is uncertain. Keenum has averaged 24.95 (DK scoring) fantasy points in his past three road games. Keenum brings a solid weekly floor in above average matchups and his price is manageable.

Blake Bortles (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Bortles’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Bortles posted a 19/33, 160, 0:1 line and 6-62-2 on the ground at Arizona last week. Bortles’ fantasy points of 23.6 ranked him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Bortles’ price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Colts has the game total at 40.5 points with the Jaguars as -9.5 point home favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Colts are currently at 15.5 points.

The Colts rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, 28th against WRs, and 28th in DVOA against the pass. The Colts also rank 30th in pass yards allowed with 266.3/gm and last in points allowed with 27.3/gm. Marcus Mariota put up a line of 17/25, 184, 1:2 at Indy last week.

CB Rashaan Melvin (hand) is out indefinitely. Bortles averages 17.9 (DK scoring) fantasy points in his five home games and put up 20.3 points at Indy in week 7. Bortles ranks 6th in QB rushing yards, and top four in red zone QB rush attempts and yards. The matchup for Bortles is solid with a positive game script at home.

Running Back

Marshawn Lynch (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Lynch’s upcoming salary ranks him 26th/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Lynch posted a 26-67-1 line and 3-44-0 on 3 targets against Denver last week. Lynch’s fantasy points of 20.1/18.6 ranked him 6th on both DK/FD for the position. Lynch’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 42.5 points with the Raiders as -7 point home favorites. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Giants are currently at 17.75 points.

The Giants rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 25th in DVOA against the run. The Giants also rank 31st in rush yards allowed with 131.7/gm and 22nd in points allowed with 24.3/gm. Washington RBs combined for a 28-118-0 line and 4-42-0 on 6 targets against New York last week.

Lynch posted his highest touch total of the season by far with 29. His next highest touch total came in week 1 with 19. Last week was the first time this season Lynch had over 100+ scrimmage yards.

The positive implied game script should set up well for Lynch, especially since both starting WRs, Amari Cooper (concussion/ankle) and Michael Crabtree (suspended), are out this week. Lynch gets an easier matchup at home against a tanking team. If there was ever a time for a BeastMode volume week, this would be it.

Jamaal Williams (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 30th/34th on DK/FD, respectively. Williams posted a 21-66-1 line and 4-69-1 on 5 targets (tied for 2nd on team) at Pittsburgh last week. Williams’ fantasy points of 29.5/27.5 ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD for the position. Williams’ price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/1st on DK/FD, respectively.

Betting lines with the Bucs have not posted yet as the status of Jameis Winston (shoulder) is currently unknown.

The Bucs rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 20th in DVOA against the run, and 22nd in DVOA against RBs in the passing game. The Bucs also rank 14th in rush yards allowed with 110.9/gm and 20th in points allowed with 23.8/gm. Atlanta RBs combined for a 26-132-2 line against Tampa Bay last week.

The Green Bay offense showed some life last week as heavy dogs at Pittsburgh. Williams gets a much easier draw this week and as Green Bay’s three-phase back, should see a lot of volume again.
Update: Ty Montgomery (wrist) has been placed on IR. Aaron Jones (MCL) is listed as questionable after getting in limited practice time this week. There is a shot he could play this week, which could cannibalize Williams’ potential.

Alex Collins (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Collins’ upcoming salary ranks him 34th/28th on DK/FD, respectively. Collins posted a 16-60-1 line and 2-(-3)-0 on 2 targets against Houston last week. Collins’ fantasy points of 13.7/12.7 ranked him 15th/12th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Lions has the game total at 40.5 points with the Ravens as -3 point home favorites. The Ravens’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Lions are currently at 18.75 points.

The Lions rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 23rd in DVOA against the run. The Lions also rank 24th in rush yards allowed with 116.2/gm and 21st in points allowed with 24/gm. Minnesota RBs combined for a 33-107-1 line and 1-31-0 on 2 targets at Detroit last week.

Collins led the Ravens backfield with 46% of the offensive snaps and 18 touches. Danny Woodhead checked in with a 33% snap rate and 8 touches. The implied positive game script suits Collins and he gets a much easier matchup this week.

Wide Receiver

Jamison Crowder (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Crowder’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Crowder posted a 7-141-1 line on 10 targets (all team highs) against the Giants last week. Crowder’s fantasy points of 30.1/23.6 ranked him 6th/on both DK/FD for the position. Crowder’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Cowboys has the game total at 44 points with the Redskins as -1 point road favorites. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Cowboys are currently at 21.5 points.

The Cowboys rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 26th in DVOA against the pass. Philip Rivers tore up the Cowboys with a 27/33, 434, 3:0 line at Dallas last week.

Crowder has averaged 10.5 targets, 6.75 catches, and 103 receiving yards over his past four games. Crowder is Kirk Cousins target hog and gets a great matchup at a solid value price.

Marqise Lee (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Lee’s upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/40th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Lee posted a 1-13-0 line on 2 targets at Arizona last week as he was expectedly shadow covered by Patrick Peterson.

The betting lines with the Colts has the game total at 40.5 points with the Jaguars as -9.5 point home favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Colts are currently at 15.5 points.

The Colts rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and in DVOA against the pass.

Lee goes from the worst matchup to one of the best this week. Lee will not have to contend with CB Rashaan Melvin (hand) and his target count should head back to near double-digits. Lee makes a solid stack option with Blake Bortles.

Jermaine Kearse (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Kearse’s upcoming salary ranks him 51st/45th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Kearse posted a 7-105-1 line on a team high 11 targets against Carolina last week. Kearse’s fantasy points of 26.5/20 ranked him 7th on both DK/FD for the position. Kearse’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/6th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 44 points with the Jets as +3.5 point home dogs. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 20.25 points and the Chiefs are currently at 23.75 points.

The Chiefs rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 20th in DVOA against the pass.

Kearse leads the Jets in catches with 42 and ranks 2nd on the team in targets, yards, and TDs behind Robby Anderson. Kearse is a cheap option with a great home matchup. Kearse also makes for a solid stack option with Josh McCown.

Tight End

Hunter Henry (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Henry’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on FD. Henry posted a 5-76-1 line on 5 targets at Dallas last week. Henry’s fantasy points of 18.6/16.1 ranked him 4th on both DK/FD for the position. Henry’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 42.5 points with the Chargers as -14 point (widest on the board) home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 28.25 points and the Browns are currently at 14.25 points.

The Browns rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 31st in DVOA against TEs. Tyler Kroft put up a 3-14-1 line on 4 targets against Cleveland last week.

Henry gets a better matchup this week as the week 13 flowchart play. He’ll be chalk but he’s in an obvious smash spot.

Jared Cook (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Cook’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on FD. Cook posted a 1-1-0 line on a team high 5 targets against Denver last week.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 42.5 points with the Raiders as -7 point home favorites. The Raiders’ implied team total is currently at 24.75 points and the Giants are currently at 17.75 points.

The Giants rank last in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 19th in DVOA against TEs. Niles Paul put up a 3-16-0 on 5 targets against the Giants last week.

Cook has the matchup and the opportunity, as both Raider starting WRs are out this week.


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