NFL Week 13 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 13 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 13: November 28 – December 2, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 13.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Ryan Tannehill (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7300 (12.17% of cap). Tannehill’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Colts (6-5) has the game total at 43.5 points with the Titans (6-5) as +2.5 point road dogs. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Colts are currently at 23 points.

Tannehill posted an efficient 14/18, 259, 2:0 passing line with 7-40-2 with a lost fumble on the ground against Jacksonville (21st vs. QBs) last week, good for a QB2 finish on DK/FD.

Deshaun Watson logged a 19/30, 298, 2:1 passing line and 3-10-0 on the ground against the Colts last week, good for a QB11/QB11 finish on DK/FD, respectively.

The Colts’ defense ranks 9th vs. QBs and 20th vs. WRs over the past four weeks in fantasy points allowed.

Tannehill has averaged 24.8 points/gm since taking the starting job five games ago. Tannehill has also averaged 38.3 rush yards and 1 rushing TD over his past three games. Tannehill’s ground game adds a solid floor with upside.

Nick Foles (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Foles’ upcoming salary ranks him 10th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bucs (4-7) has the game total at 47 points with the Jaguars (4-7) as +1 point home dogs. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the Bucs are currently at 24 points.

Foles posted a 32/48, 272, 0:0 passing line with 3-20-0 on the ground at Tennessee (16th vs. QBs) last week, good for a QB9 finish on DK/FD.

The Bucs’ defense ranks 31st vs. QBs, 31st vs. TEs, and last vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed. The Bucs’ D-Line ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Jaguars’ O-line which ranks 12th.

The Bucs’ defense remains a pass-funnel for which Foles should have ample opportunities to exploit.

Running Back

Jonathan Williams (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300 (10.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6800 (11.33% of cap). Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 21st/14th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Titans (6-5) has the game total at 43.5 points with the Colts (6-5) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Colts are currently at 23 points.

Williams posted a 26-104-1 rush line and 3-17-0 on 3 targets with 45 snaps (67%) at Houston (24th vs. RBs) last week, good for an RB6 finish. Leonard Fournette logged a 24-97-2 rush line and 9-62-0 on 12 targets at Tennessee last week, good for the RB1 finish.

The Titans’ defense ranks 22nd against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 28th over the past four weeks.

Williams has averaged 21.4 fantasy points in his past two starts in place of Marlon Mack (hand). Williams’ 29 touches actually equaled QB Jacoby Brissett’s last week. Expect another run-heavy dose of Williams for the Colts this week.

Miles Sanders (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400 (10.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.67% of cap). Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/26th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Dolphins (2-9) has the game total at 45 points with the Eagles (5-6) as -10 point road favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 25 points and the Dolphins are currently at 15 points.

Sanders posted a 12-63-0 rush line and 3-23-0 on 5 targets with 64 snaps (84%) against the Seahawks (10th vs. RBs) last week.

The Browns’ RBs combined for a 29-143-2 rushing line and 5-67-0 on 6 targets against the Dolphins last week. The Dolphins’ defense ranks 28th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 19th over the past four weeks. The Dolphins’ run defense also ranks 29th in DVOA.

Sanders benefits from getting the 2nd best adjusted line yards differential on the slate. If the Eagles can’t get Sanders going in about the best-case scenario he will get this season, it ain’t happening. This play is contingent that Jordan Howard (shoulder) remains sidelined.

Wide Receiver

Auden Tate (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800 (7.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5200 (8.67% of cap). Tate’s upcoming salary ranks him 51st/48th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Jets (4-7) has the game total at 41 points with the Bengals (0-11) as +3 point home dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Jets are currently at 22 points.

The Jets rank 25th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 25th over the past four weeks.

After witnessing three games with Ryan Finley under center, even the winless Bengals couldn’t stomach that any longer. Andy Dalton regains his job and elevates all the Bengals’ receiving options going forward.

In Tate’s last six games with Dalton, he averaged 8.6 targets and 11.6 fantasy points. Tate provides for a viable cheap play and could easily outperform his salary rank with Dalton back, in this positive matchup.

Sterling Shepard (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.83% of cap). Shepard’s upcoming salary ranks him 34th/30th on DK/FD, respectively.

Shepard logged a 5-15-0 receiving line on 9 targets and 1-22-0 on the ground with 57 snaps (95%).

The betting line with the Packers (8-3) has the game total at 45.5 points with the Giants (2-9) as +6.5 point home dogs. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Packers are currently at 26 points.

The Packers rank 9th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 7th over the past four weeks.

After missing the previous five games (concussion), Shepard returned last week to lead New York WRs in snaps, targets, and catches. He’s priced cheaper than teammates Darius Slayton and Golden Tate. Tate is currently in the concussion protocol and hasn’t practiced as of Wednesday.

Shepard would make for a cheap play with a full-time role, especially if Tate were to miss this week.
UPDATE:
Tate has been ruled out.

Tight End

Tyler Higbee (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500 (5% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5500 (9.17% of cap). Higbee’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Cardinals (3-7-1) has the game total at 47.5 points with the Rams (6-5) as -3 point road favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Cowboys are currently at 19.5 points.

Higbee posted a 5-20-0 receiving line on 6 targets (3rd on team) with 38 snaps (70%) against Baltimore (5th vs. TEs) last week.

The Cardinals’ defense ranks last against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 31st over the past four weeks.

Higbee out-snapped Gerald Everett 80 to 31 over the past two games which may indicate a depth chart change. Higbee costs the stone-minimum on DK and gets the nuts matchup for TEs as the apparent TE1 for the Rams this week.
UPDATE:
Everett (knee) has been ruled out.

Jack Doyle (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.33% of cap). Doyle’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Titans (6-5) has the game total at 43.5 points with the Colts (6-5) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Colts are currently at 23 points.

Doyle posted a 3-28-0 receiving line on 4 targets with 46 snaps (69%) at Houston (14th vs. TEs) last week.

The Titans’ defense ranks 21st against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 18th over the past four weeks.

TE Eric Ebron (ankle) has been placed on IR, leaving Doyle with the lions-share of the TE snaps moving forward. This season without Ebron, Doyle’s target share and red zone target share jumps to 21.5% and 20%, respectively, compared to 3.4% and 8.8% with Ebron. Doyle projects as a top-10 TE play this week, although he’s priced well below this range.

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