NFL Week 13: December 6 – 8, 2020
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 13.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Kirk Cousins (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400 (12.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7300 (12.2% of cap). Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 7th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Jaguars (1-10) has the game total at 52 points, with the Vikings (5-6) as -10 point home favorites. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 31 points and the Jaguars are currently at 21 points.
Cousins posted a 34/45, 307, 3:0 passing line and 3-19-0 on the ground against the Panthers (18th vs. QBs) last week.
Baker Mayfield put up a 19/29, 258, 2:0 passing line at Jacksonville last week.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 30th against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 26th over the past four weeks. The Texans’ defense also ranks 26th vs. WRs, and 25th vs. TEs.
The Vikings’ offense ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Jaguars’ DST which ranks 24th.
Cousins averaged 24.13 points over his past four games, and now gets the best matchup he has seen during this stretch.
Philip Rivers (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7000 (11.7% of cap). Rivers’ upcoming salary ranks him 12th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Texans (4-7) has the game total at 51.5 points, with the Colts (7-4) as -3 point road favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 27.25 points and the Texans are currently at 24.25 points. This game also projects to be one of the quicker paced ones on the slate.
Rivers posted a 24/42, 295, 2:1 passing line against the Titans (25th vs. QBs) last week.
Matthew Stafford put up a 28/42, 295, 1:1 passing line against the Texans last week.
The Texans’ defense ranks 19th against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 11th over the past four weeks. The Texans’ defense also ranks 23rd vs. WRs, and 18th vs. TEs.
The Colts’ offense ranks 7th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Texans’ DST which ranks 10th.
Rivers averaged 20.18 points over his past three games, and 19.94 over his past six. For a sub-$6K DK price, that’ll work.
Texans’ CB1 Bradley Roby (PED suspension) will miss the remainder of the season. This should help the Colts’ pass game a tad, but the Texans’ pass defense (DVOA 22nd vs. the pass) shouldn’t pose a problem here, even for Rivers.
Running Back
David Montgomery (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6200 (10.3% of cap). Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 24th/19th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Lions (4-7) has the game total at 44.5 points, with the Bears (5-6) as -3 point home favorites. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Lions are currently at 20.75 points.
Montgomery posted an 11-103-0 rushing line and 5-40-1 on 6 targets with 58 snaps (85%) at Green Bay (30th vs. RBs) last week.
The Texans’ RBs combined for a 14-49-0 rushing line and 4-45-2 on 5 targets at Detroit last week.
The Lions’ DST ranks last vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and last over the past four weeks. The Bears’ O-line ranks 22nd in adjusted line yards vs. the Lions’ defense which ranks 29th.
Montgomery gets a favorable game-script and great matchup, which should set up for a potentially productive day.
Wayne Gallman Jr. (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600 (11.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6100 (10.2% of cap). Gallman’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Seahawks (8-3) has the game total at 43 points with the Giants (4-7) as +10 point road favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 19 points and the Seahawks are currently at 29 points.
Gallman posted a 24-94-1 rushing line and 3-(-3)-0 on 5 targets with 51 snaps (63%) at Cincinnati (16th vs. RBs) last week. Gallman’s touches and snap rate are personal season highs.
The Eagles’ RBs combined for a 9-28-0 rushing line, and 7-47-0 on 9 targets against the Seahawks last week.
The Seahawks rank 22nd vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 19th over the past four weeks. The Giants’ offense ranks 28th in adjusted line yards vs. the Seahawks’ defense which ranks 8th.
Gallman’s 6 rushing TDs inside the 5 yard line ranks him 3rd (tied) in the league. Gallman has averaged 16.3 fantasy points over his past fives games, and has scored at least once in five straight.
Pros: Backup QB Colt McCoy should get the start for Daniel Jones (hamstring). Jones’ rushing upside is now removed. McCoy may checkdown more than Jones on early downs.
Cons: Game-script issues as a big dog, which could hurt snaps on passing downs.
Wide Receiver
Denzel Mims (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100 (8.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5500 (9.2% of cap). Mims’ upcoming salary ranks him 48th/37th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Raiders (6-5) has the game total at 47 points with the Jets (0-11) as +8 point home dogs. The Jets’ implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Raiders are currently at 27.5 points.
Mims posted a 4-67-0 receiving line on 8 targets with 52 snaps (95%) against the Dolphins (17th vs. WRs) last week. Mims’ WOPR of 63.88% ranks him 5th in the league for WRs (min. 20 targets).
The Falcons’ WRs combined for an 13-116-2 receiving line on 20 targets against the Raiders last week.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 19th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 24th over the past four weeks.
Mims averaged nearly 8 targets and 66.7 yards over his past three games against tougher matchups than he’ll see this week.
Tight End
Robert Tonyan (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700 (7.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.8% of cap). Tonyan’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Eagles (3-7-1) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Packers (8-3) as -9 point home favorites. The Packers’ implied team total is currently at 27.75 points and the Eagles are currently at 18.75 points.
Tonyan put up a 5-67-1 receiving line on 5 targets with a 58% snap rate against the Bears (29th vs. TEs) last week.
Jacob Hollister posted a 2-11-0 receiving line on 5 targets at Philadelphia last week.
The Eagles’ defense ranks 22nd vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 3rd* over the past four weeks (* vs. Seattle, Cleveland, NYG, and a bye).
Tonyan has averaged 5 catches and 1 TD over his past two games, making him a possible scoring option with a solid matchup.
