NFL Week 13: December 1st – 5th, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 13.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Washington Redskins – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2400, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. Washington’s salary ranks them 27th/4th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Cardinals at 49.5 points (tied for 2nd highest on the board) with the Redskins as +2.5 point road dogs.
Washington’s defense ranks 16th in passing yards allowed (252.9), 25th in rushing yards allowed (116.7), and 18th (tied) in points allowed (24.0). Washington ranks tied for 19th in takeaways (13) and tied for 7th in sacks (28). Washington also ranks 16th against QBs (17.32), 24th against RBs (20.05), 12th against WRs (22.35), and 23rd against TEs (8.15) in fantasy points allowed. Washington ranks 3rd best in DVOA to RBs against the pass.
Arizona’s offense ranks 17th in rush yards gained (106.8), 9th in pass yards gained (262.3), and 20th in points scored (22.3). Arizona also ranks 7th worst (tied) in giveaways with 19 and gives up the 3rd most sacks with 33.
This is an interesting matchup in what projects to be a close game. Washington’s defensive road splits are slightly better across the board against all positions in fantasy points allowed. Arizona’s weak pass protection and an immobile Carson Palmer is a positive matchup for Washington’s pass rush. David Johnson has 50 more total receiving yards and one more receiving TD than rushing yards and rushing TDs over his past four games. During this same period, Johnson has been Palmer’s second most targeted receiving option with 31. Palmer’s top target Larry Fitzgerald had 40 targets during this time frame.
Washington’s defense may have a sneaky shot to contain Johnson, who is Arizona’s offensive cornerstone, as long as Washington isn’t getting blown out. Kirk Cousins and his aerial weapons should potentially keep this from happening. Limiting Johnson’s effectiveness as Palmer’s check-down safety blanket may expose Palmer into more dangerous opportunities for Washington. This could work as long as Johnson doesn’t run hog-wild on the ground, which is always a big “if”. Johnson has averaged 60 rushing yards per game over his last four games.
Washington’s defense could serve as a very cheap and viable play on DK this week.
San Diego Chargers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. San Diego’s salary ranks them 10th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Bucs at 47.5 points with the Chargers as -3.5 point home favorites.
San Diego’s defense ranks 6th in rushing yards allowed (89.8), 26th in passing yards allowed (271.3), and 26th in points allowed (26.5). San Diego ranks 2nd in takeaways (23) and tied for 25th in sacks (20). San Diego also ranks 14th against QBs (18.3), 27th against RBs (20.85), 15th against WRs (23.05), and 15th against TEs (6.95) in fantasy points allowed. San Diego recorded one sack, three picks, and recovered a fumble against Houston last week.
Tampa Bay’s offense ranks 16th in rush yards gained (107.1), 13th in pass yards gained (256.4), and 17th (tied) in points scored (22.6). Tampa Bay also ranks 10th in most giveaways (18) and 18th (tied) in sacks allowed with 23.
Tampa Bay heads west after a big emotional win over Seattle and may be in a potential letdown spot. San Diego has forced multiple turnovers in 7 of 11 games this season and had at least one in every game. The home favorites are in a nice spot to register a couple more this week as a floor.
Green Bay Packers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Green Bay’s salary ranks them 10th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Texans at 45.5 points with the Packers as -6.5 point home favorites.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 21st in passing yards allowed (260.6), 7th in rushing yards allowed (90.2), and 25th in points allowed (26.3). Green Bay ranks tied for 23rd in takeaways (11) and tied for 7th in sacks (28). Green Bay also ranks 21st against QBs (18.26), 15th against RBs (16.65), 30th against WRs (27.15), and 26th against TEs (9.2) in fantasy points allowed. Green Bay recorded four sacks, a pick, and held the Eagles to 13 points last week in Philadelphia.
Houston’s offense ranks 5th in rush yards gained (121.0), 31st in pass yards gained (195.9), and 29th in points scored (17.6). Houston also ranks 7th worst (tied) in giveaways with 19 and 24th in sacks with 20.
Green Bay’s defense should get a pass-funnel scenario against Brock Osweiler in Lambeau. Green Bay’s defense has been porous, but they did step up nicely against a much better offense last week. Osweiler is tied for the lead league in interceptions (13), and is one of two QBs who have thrown more picks than TDs. The other is Ryan Fitzpatrick.
A concern for the Packers is the unknown playing status of Clay Matthews (shoulder). His situation may not be known until the actives list is reported but as with all players, the NFL injury report should be checked by Friday night.