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NFL Week 13 DFS Defense Value Picks Oct 2018
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NFL Week 13: November 30 – December 4, 2017

We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 13.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Defense

Denver Broncos – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Denver’s salary ranks them 14th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Nine teams are priced at 4600 on FD.

The betting lines with the Dolphins has the game total at 38.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos as -1 point road favorites. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 18.75 points and the Broncos are currently at 19.75 points.

The Dolphins rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to defenses and toss up the 2nd most interceptions with 15 which is tied with Denver. The Dolphins also rank 30th in total yards with 285.5/gm and in points scored with 15.8/gm. New England tallied 7 sacks, 2 picks, and a fumble recovery against Miami last week.

Denver ranks 3rd in yards allowed with 289.1/gm but ranks 27th in points allowed with 25.5/gm as this unit has given up the most passing TDs with 24. Denver also ranks 19th (tied) in sacks generated with 24 and 31st in turnovers created with 8. Denver registered 2 sacks and a pick at Oakland last week. Denver will be without CB Aqib Talib as he has been suspended for the next two games. NT Domata Peko (MCL) and DE Derek Wolfe (neck) will both miss this week, which downgrades the run defense.

Simply put, these are two bad teams in an ugly game which projects to be a low-scoring affair. The matchup is favorable for Denver and the price tag is workable.

Miami Dolphins – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Miami’s salary ranks them 16th/17th on DK/FD, respectively.

Betting lines – see Denver above.

The Broncos rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to defenses, take the 3rd (tied) most sacks with 36, and allow the 2nd most turnovers with 24. Denver offense also ranks 22nd in yards with 319.7/gm and 26th in points scored with 17.9/gm.
Oakland’s terrible defense tallied 5 sacks, a pick, and held Denver to 14 points last week.

Miami managed a sack, a pick, and a fumble recovery returned for a TD in New England last week. Miami’s defensive metrics are #BAD across the board, so this matchup boils down to a bad offense vs. a bad defense, and who ends up performing worse. Unfortunately for Miami (kind of), they will get Trevor Siemien this week instead of Paxton Lynch (ankle).

Oakland Raiders – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Oakland’s salary ranks them 11th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 42.5 points with the Raiders as -7 point home favorites. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 17.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 24.75 points.

The Giants rank 18th in fantasy points allowed to defenses. The Giants also rank 28th in total yards with 295.9/gm and 31st in points scored with 15.6/gm. Washington tallied 4 sacks, a pick, and held the Giants to 4 offensive points last week.

Oakland’s defensive metrics are #BAD across the board, but if the positive implied game script holds, New York should have to throw more than they would like. And in a bizarre development, the Giant under center this week will be Geno Smith. McAdoo stated that Smith will be given the start for “evaluation” purposes. What McAdoo needs to further evaluate regarding Geno is a mystery, as Geno has a career 28:36 TD to INT ratio and has consistently shown bad decision making.

Two perspectives on this matchup may surface this week: Geno gets a good matchup or the Raiders defense get a “Nathan Peterman” type of opportunity. Gun-to-head, the latter scenario seems more plausible.


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