NFL Week 13 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 13: November 28 – December 2, 2019
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 13.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4200 (7% of cap). The Chiefs’ salary ranks them 16th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Raiders (6-5) has the game total at 51.5 points (highest on the board) with the Chiefs (7-4) as -10 point home favorites. The Chiefs’ implied team total is currently at 30.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 20.75 points. The Chiefs are coming off their bye.
At the Los Angeles Chargers in week 11, the Chiefs’ defense logged 2 sacks, 4 picks, and allowed 17 points, good for 11 fantasy points. Against the Raiders last week, the Jets’ defense recorded 1 sack, 1 fumble recovery, 1 pick returned for a TD, and gave up a field goal, good for 18 fantasy points and DST2 finish.
Oakland’s O-line ranks 5th in adjusted sack rate vs. Kansas City’s D-line which ranks 7th. The Chiefs logged 3 sacks, 2 picks, and held the Raiders to 10 points in their week 2 meeting in Oakland, good for 11 fantasy points.
Current weather projections for Kansas City this Sunday has the temps in the upper 30s with winds in the 20 to 30 mph range. Derek Carr has historically not performed well in cold weather, and will also be without SWR Hunter Renfrow (broken rib/punctured lung). As soon as the Chiefs can get a lead to force RB Josh Jacobs out of the game, the Chiefs’ defense should have opportunities enough for plays at home as big favorites against their division rival.
Baltimore Ravens – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3700 (6.17% of cap). The Ravens’ salary ranks them 14th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the 49ers (10-1) has the game total at 46 points with the Ravens (9-2) as -6 point home favorites. The Ravens’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the 49ers are currently at 20 points.
At Los Angeles last week, the Ravens’ defense logged 2 sacks, 2 picks, and held the Rams to a pair of field goals, good for a DST5 finish.
The 49ers’ offense ranks 11th in DVOA vs. a Ravens’ defense ranking 4th. The 49ers’ offense also give up the 13th (tied) most turnovers (17) while the Ravens’ defense generates the 6th most turnovers (18).
Current weather projections for Baltimore this Sunday calls for rain with winds in the 10 to 15 mph range. The Ravens’ DST could make for a lower-owned, solid play with upside as a home favorite.
Denver Broncos – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4400 (7.33% of cap). The Broncos’ salary ranks them 10th/6th on DK/FD.
The betting line with the Chargers (4-7) has the game total at 38.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos (3-8) as +2.5 point home dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 18 points and the Chargers are currently at 20.5 points.
The Chargers toss up the 3rd most interceptions (14) and give up the 13th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Broncos’ defense recorded 2 picks, 1 fumble recovery, and held the Chargers to 13 points, good for 12 fantasy points, in Los Angeles in week 5.
Philip Rivers may soon be more inclined to go home and throw Nerf balls around to his nine kids, but he could always toss up a few of those to the Broncos first this Sunday.
Submit your review