NFL Week 13 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 13: December 6 – 8, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 13.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines and weather projections are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Defense
Indianapolis Colts – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.7% of cap). The Colts’ salary ranks them 9th/4th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Texans (4-7) has the game total at 51.5 points, with the Colts (7-4) as -3 point road favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 27.25 points and the Texans are currently at 24.25 points.
The Colts’ defense registered 1 sack, and gave up 45 offensive points against the Titans last week.
The Lions’ defense logged 2 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 35 offensive points to the Texans last week.
The Colts’ defense ranks 15th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Texans’ offense which ranks 30th.
The Texans rank 13th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed while the Colts’ defense ranks 2nd (tied) in fantasy points/gm. The Colts rank no worse than top 7 in DvP against QBs, WRs, and TEs, and 15th vs. RBs, where the Texans own the 2nd worst rushing offense.
The Texans will be without WR1 Will Fuller (PED suspension) for the rest of the year. Despite getting manhandled last week by the Titans, the Colts are in a nice bounce-back spot, with favorable matchups across the board.
Chicago Bears – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4200 (7% of cap). The Bears’ salary ranks them 8th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Lions (4-7) has the game total at 44.5 points, with the Bears (5-6) as -3 point home favorites. The Bears’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Lions are currently at 20.75 points.
The Bears’ defense got trampled for 182 rush yards, giving up a 4.9 non-kneel down rush average, as well as getting soul-possessed by Aaron Rodgers. But as my mother always says, “what’s past is past”.
The Texans’ defense logged 4 sacks, 1 interception returned for a TD, 2 fumble recoveries, and allowed 25 offensive points at Detroit last week, good for the DST4 finish.
The Bears’ defense ranks 15th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Lions’ offense which ranks 27th.
The Lions rank 18th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed, while the Bears’ defense ranks 17th in fantasy points/gm.
After last week’s embarrassment, the Bears’ DST get an opportunity to take out their frustrations on the Lions this week. However, the Lions, just after the firing of HC Patricia and GM Quinn, may come out with an unfettered enthusiasm not witnessed in years.
Seattle Seahawks – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4700 (6.3% of cap). The Seahawks’ salary ranks them 6th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Giants (4-7) has the game total at 48 points, with the Seahawks (8-3) as -10 point home favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 29 points and the Giants are currently at 19 points.
The Seahawks’ defense logged 6 sacks, 1 interception, and gave up 15 offensive points against the Eagles last week.
The Bengals’ DST registered 1 fumble recovery, a kick return TD, and gave up 19 offensive points at the Giants last week.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks 12th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Giants’ offense which ranks 15th.
The Giants rank 27th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, while the Seahawks’ DST ranks 19th in fantasy points/gm.
QB Daniel Jones (hamstring) is looking like he will miss this week. Backup Colt McCoy stepped in after Jones went down, to post a 6/10, 31, 0:0 passing line. His 3.1 average was lower than the 3.4 rushing average the Giants mustered against the Bengals.
As two score home favorites, the imaginary bird team from the Northwest should have paths to potential plays against McCoy.
UPDATE:
DE Carlos Dunlap (foot) is listed as questionable. Big hit to Seahawks’ pass rush if he misses. CB Tre Flowers (hamstring) put on IR.
