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NFL Week 12 DFS Value Player Picks Oct 2018
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NFL Week 12: November 23 – 27, 2017

We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 12.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thurs – Mon).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Jacoby Brissett (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Brissett’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th on both DK/FD. Brissett is coming off a bye.

The betting lines with the Titans has the game total at 44 points with the Colts as +3.5 point home dogs. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Titans are currently at 20.25 points.

The Titans rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 26th in DVOA against the pass. The Titans also rank 21st in pass yards allowed with 241.2/gm and 24th in points allowed with 25.3/gm. Big Ben dropped a 30/45, 299, 4:0 line against the Titans last week.

This game could have shootout potential as both teams are weak against the pass. Brissett should be relied upon to shoulder the load, as Indy shouldn’t have success at rushing against the Titans. And if the implied negative game script holds, Brissett should have ample volume with a good matchup. Brissett has multiple TDs in his last three games and adds rushing potential as he ranks 12th in QB rushing yards with 154 with 3 rushing TDs. Brissett is currently in the concussion protocol but is expected to play this week.

Marcus Mariota (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 7800. Mariota’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Mariota posted a 22/33, 306, 1:4 line and 5-5-1 on the ground at Pittsburgh last week. Mariota’s fantasy points of 21.74/18.74 ranked him 6th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Mariota’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.

Betting Lines: see Brissett above.

The Colts rank 25th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 27th in DVOA against the pass. The Colts also rank 30th in pass yards allowed with 274.5/gm and dead last in points allowed with 28/gm.

As previously noted above, this game has shootout potential and should have active passing game involvement for both teams. Mariota gets a solid matchup, along with a rushing floor as he ranks 10th in QB rushing yards with 186 along with 4 rushing TDs. Mariota ranks 4th for QBs in red zone rushing attempts and yards, and tied with the 3rd most rushing TDs with 3.
Update: Rishard Matthews (hamstring) did not practice Friday after putting in a limited session on Thursday and is questionable.

Andy Dalton (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Dalton’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Dalton posted a 15/25, 154, 3:0 line at Denver last week. Dalton’s fantasy points of 18.56 ranked him 12th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Dalton’s price per point efficiency ranked him 8th on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 38 points with the Bengals as -8.5 point home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Browns are currently at 14.75 points.

The Browns rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 24th in DVOA against the pass. The Browns also rank 15th in pass yards allowed with 222/gm and 27th in points allowed with 25.9/gm.

Dalton had an efficient game last week and draws a much easier matchup this week. Cleveland remains a pass-funnel defense which should have Dalton controlling the action for the Bengals’ offense.

Tyrod Taylor (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Taylor’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Taylor posted a 15/25, 158 1:0 line and 4-38-1 on the ground with a lost fumble in just the second half when Nathan Peterman was benched at Los Angeles last week. Taylor’s fantasy points of 19.12/18.12 ranked him 11th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 46 points with the Bills as +10 point road dogs. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 18 points and the Chiefs are currently at 28 points.

The Chiefs rank 24th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 20th in DVOA against the pass. The Chiefs also rank 28th in pass yards allowed with 253.8/gm and 14th in points allowed with 22/gm.

Tyrod brings a rushing floor as he ranks 3rd in QB rushing yards with 275. Tyrod also ranks 3rd for QBs in red zone rushing attempts and TDs. The game script should be similar to last week against the Chargers, but this time, Tyrod will have a full game with an easier matchup.

Running Back

Samaje Perine (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Perine’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/9th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Perine posted a 23-117-1 line and 1-9-0 on 2 targets at New Orleans last week. Perine’s fantasy points of 22.6/19.1 ranked him 6th on both DK/FD for the position. Perine’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/2nd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Giants has the game total at 44.5 points with the Redskins as -7.5 point home favorites. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Giants are currently at 18.5 points.

The Giants rank 21st in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 25th in DVOA against the run. The Giants also rank 30th in rush yards allowed with 132.7/gm and 21st (tied) in points allowed with 24.7/gm. Kansas City RBs combined for a 23-91-0 line and 8-24-0 on 9 targets at New York last week.

Chris Thompson went down with a broken leg last week, leaving Perine to take over as the three-phase back for Washington. Perine’s snap ratio checked in at 70% with Thompson logging 26% before going down. If the positive implied game script holds, Perine will have a near every down volume based role in a good matchup, at a relatively cheap price.

Dion Lewis (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Lewis’ upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Lewis posted a 10-60-0 line and 4-28-1 on 4 targets against Oakland last week. Lewis’ fantasy points of 18.8/16.8 ranked him 9th/8th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position. Lewis’ price per point efficiency ranked him 6th on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Dolphins has the game total at 48 points with the Patriots as -16.5 point (widest on the board) home favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 32.25 points and the Dolphins are currently at 15.75 points.

The Dolphins rank 19th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 15th in DVOA against the run, and 28th in DVOA against RBs in the passing game.

Lewis has emerged as the lead dog in New England’s backfield, logging a majority 43% snap ratio. As massive home favorites, the positive implied game script sets up well for Lewis and he comes with a dirt cheap cost.

Tevin Coleman (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6500, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Coleman’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/16th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD. Coleman posted a 20-43-1 line and 1-15-0 on 2 targets at Seattle last week. Coleman’s fantasy points of 12.8/12.3 ranked him 22nd/20th on DK/FD for the position.

The betting lines with the Bucs has the game total at 48.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Falcons as -9.5 point home favorites. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 29 points and the Bucs are currently at 19.5 points.

The Bucs rank 20th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 14th in DVOA against the run, and 27th in DVOA against RBs in the passing game. The Giants also rank 13th in rush yards allowed with 107.2/gm and 17th in points allowed with 22.8/gm. Miami RBs combined for a 17-82-0 line and 2-34-0 on 3 targets against Tampa Bay last week.

With Devonta Freeman (concussion) still in the protocol and projected to sit out this week, Coleman takes the reins as the three-phase back. Coleman’s matchup this week will be much easier than he faced against Seattle, and he should see heavy volume as large home favorites.

Wide Receiver

Kenny Stills (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Stills’ upcoming salary ranks him 38th/42nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Stills posted a 7-180-1 line on 8 targets against Tampa Bay last week. Stills’ fantasy points of 34/27.5 ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD. Stills’ price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Patriots has the game total at 48 points with the Dolphins as +16.5 point road dogs. The Dolphins’ implied team total is currently at 15.75 points and the Patriots are currently at 32.25 points.

The Patriots rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 29th in DVOA against the pass. New England also ranks last in pass yards allowed with 282/gm and 12th in points allowed with 20.3/gm.

Stills did his damage in the second-half when Matt Moore entered the game in relief of Jay Cutler (concussion). Cutler is still in the protocol and his status is uncertain at this time.

If Moore gets the start, then Stills is in play as he and Moore are the tandem with the connection. Of Moore’s last six TD passes, five have gone to Stills. If Cutler does get the start, then Devante Parker is Smokin’ Jay’s guy and then downgrade Stills accordingly.
Update: Jay Culter (concussion) has been ruled out. With Moore starting, Stills should see a decent target share, especially with a major negative game script working in his favor.

Corey Coleman (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Coleman’s upcoming salary ranks him 44th/36th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Coleman posted a 6-80-0 line on a team high 11 targets against Jacksonville last week. Coleman’s fantasy points of 14/11 ranked him 24th/25th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting lines with the Bengals has the game total at 38 points with the Browns as +8.5 point road dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 14.75 points and the Bengals are currently at 23.25 points.

Cincinnati ranks 4th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 14th in DVOA against the pass. The now benched Brock Osweiler managed a 23/42, 254, 1:1 against the Bengals last week.

When healthy and playing, Coleman has been Cleveland’s target hog and he delivered a serviceable line and hit value on DK last week against the Jacksonville’s top ranked passing defense. Coleman’s matchup isn’t great but, it’s better than it was against Jacksonville, and he does get a negative implied game script which should keep him in play throughout. Coleman’s cheap price tag marginally increased on FD but remained unchanged on DK. If Coleman can hit value against Jacksonville, his probability if hitting it against the Bengals are solid for his low cost.

Tight End

Tyler Kroft (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Kroft’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Kroft posted a 2-12-1 line on 3 targets at Denver last week. Kroft’s fantasy points of 9.2/8.2 ranked him 13th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 38 points with the Bengals as -8.5 point home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Browns are currently at 14.75 points.

The Browns rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 29th in DVOA against TEs. Kroft is one of this week’s flowchart plays as Cleveland gives up the 2nd most TDs to TEs, and Kroft has 4 red zone TDs on the season which ties for 4th amongst TEs, . Kroft’s volume should tick upward as Cleveland’s defense is a pass-funnel unit. Kroft would also make for a viable stack with Dalton.

Jack Doyle (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Doyle’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Doyle is coming off a week 11 bye.

The betting lines with the Titans has the game total at 45.5 points with the Colts as +3 point home dogs. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points and the Titans are currently at 24.25 points.

The Titans rank 7th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 12th in DVOA against TEs.

The matchup for Doyle isn’t great, but he has averaged 9.2 targets and 7 catches for his past five games. Doyle also leads the team in targets with 68 (tied with TY Hilton) and catches with 52. The negative implied game script should keep him in play, and as a volume target for Brissett, he would also make for a viable stack with him.


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