NFL Week 12 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 12 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 12: November 21 – 25, 2019

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 12.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Week 12 Byes: Arizona Cardinals, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings

Quarterback

Jeff Driskel (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7300 (12.17% of cap). Driskel’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with Washington (1-9) has the game total at 41.5 points with Detroit (3-6-1) as -3.5 point road favorites. Detroit’s implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and Washington is currently at 19 points.

Driskel posted a 15/26, 209, 2:0 passing line with 8-51-1 on the ground against Dallas (8th vs. QBs) last week, good for a QB5 finish on DK/FD.

Sam Darnold logged a 19/30, 293, 4:1 passing line at Washington last week, good for a QB8/QB7 finish on DK/FD, respectively.

Washington’s defense ranks 19th vs. QBs and 22nd over the past four weeks in fantasy points allowed. Washington’s pass defense also ranks 26th in DVOA and their D-Line ranks 29th in adjusted sack rate. This matchup also has the best explosive pass rate differential on the week.

Driskel has averaged 23.3 points/gm with 44 rush yards/gm, bringing a solid ground floor with a good matchup.

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Mayfield’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Dolphins (2-8) has the game total at 44.5 points with the Browns (4-6) as -10.5 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 27.5 points and the Dolphins are currently at 17 points.

Mayfield posted a 17/32, 193, 2:0 passing line with 1-1-1 on the ground against the Steelers (11th vs. QBs) last week, good for a QB9 finish on DK/FD.

Josh Allen logged a 21/33, 256, 3:0 passing line with 7-56-1 on the ground at Miami last week, good for a QB3/QB1 finish on DK/FD, respectively.

The Dolphins’ defense ranks 25th vs. QBs and 20th over the past four weeks in fantasy points allowed. The Dolphins’ pass defense also ranks last in DVOA and their D-Line ranks 30th in adjusted sack rate. This matchup also has the 2nd best explosive pass rate differential on the week.

Mayfield gets his easiest on-paper matchup thus far on the season which should provide for a solid floor/potential ceiling value play.

Running Back

Phillip Lindsay (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200 (10.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6300 (10.5% of cap). Lindsay’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/16th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bills (7-3) has the game total at 37.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos (3-7) as +4 point road dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 16.75 points and the Bills are currently at 20.75 points.

Lindsay posted a 16-67-0 rush line and 2-8-0 on 2 targets with 52 snaps (64%) at Minnesota (5th vs. RBs) last week.

The Bills’ defense ranks 22nd against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 23rd over the past four weeks. The Bills’ rush defense also ranks 27th in DVOA.

Beginning last week, Lindsay has assumed the RB1 role in Denver finally as his snaps were a season high with 64% vs. Royce Freeman’s 30%. Lindsay also out-touched Freeman 18 to 9, and this ratio should continue moving forward. Buffalo’s defense is a run-funnel which should present a solid opportunity for Lindsay.

Derrick Henry (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6900 (13.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 8400 (14% of cap). Henry’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/2nd on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Jaguars (4-6) has the game total at 41.5 points with the Titans (5-5) as -3 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 22.25 points and the Jaguars are currently at 19.25 points. The Titans are coming off their bye.

Henry posted a 23-188-2 rush line and 2-3-0 on 2 targets with 37 snaps (71%) against the Chiefs (32nd vs. RBs) in week 10.

The Colts’ RBs combined for a 30-236-2 rushing line and 4-55-0 on 5 targets against the Jaguars last week. The Jaguars’ defense ranks 24th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 25th over the past four weeks. The Jaguars’ run defense also ranks 30th in DVOA.

Henry leads the league in yards after contact/att and gets the largest open field rush yards differential on the slate. Henry eats in November-December as opposed to the first-half, so it’s officially #KingHenrySzn.

Wide Receiver

Tim Patrick (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5400 (9% of cap). Patrick’s upcoming salary ranks him 80th/40th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Bills (7-3) has the game total at 37.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Broncos (3-7) as +4 point road dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 16.75 points and the Bills are currently at 20.75 points.

Patrick posted a 4-77-0 line on 8 targets with 59 snaps (73%) at Minnesota (29th vs. WRs) last week.

Miami WRs combined for a 17-246-0 receiving line on 25 targets against Buffalo last week. Buffalo ranks 8th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 4th over the past four weeks.

Patrick looks to have established himself as the team’s WR2 since his return from IR last week. With Courtland Sutton likely to receive shadow coverage from Tre’Davious White, Patrick could see extended looks with a much softer matchup against Levi Wallace.

Tight End

Ben Watson (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.83% of cap). Watson’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Cowboys (6-4) has the game total at 45.5 points with the Patriots (9-1) as -6.5 point home favorites. The Patriots’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Cowboys are currently at 19.5 points.

Watson posted a 3-52-0 receiving line on 4 targets with 59 snaps (80%) at Philadelphia (8th vs. TEs) last week.

The Cowboys’ defense ranks 29th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 24th over the past four weeks.

With WR Mohamed Sanu (ankle) likely to miss this week, Watson could see an uptick in volume. Sanu averaged 7.6 targets in his 3 games since joining New England. Watson makes for a cheap, viable punt play with a solid positional matchup.

Vance McDonald (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.83% of cap). McDonald’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bengals (0-10) has the game total at 38.5 points with the Steelers (5-5) as -6.5 point road favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 22.5 points and the Bengals are currently at 16 points.

McDonald posted a 3-33-0 receiving line on 7 targets (tied for team high) with 71 snaps (96%) at Cleveland (15th vs. TEs) last week.

Oakland TEs combined for a 7-86-1 receiving line on 9 targets against the Bengals last week.

The Bengals’ defense ranks 17th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 32nd over the past four weeks.

The Steeler’s will likley be without WR Juju Smith-Schuster (knee/concussion) and RB James Conner (shoulder) and their combined 24.2% target share with QB Mason Rudolph. These two also combined for 10 red zone (RZ) targets. McDonald already leads the team in RZ targets (9) and RZ receiving TDs (3).

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