NFL Week 10 DFS Value Player Picks
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NFL Week 10: November 12 – 16, 2020

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 10.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.


Quarterback

Jared Goff (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6500 (13% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7400 (12.3% of cap). Goff’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Seahawks (6-2) has the game total at 55.5 points (2nd highest on the board), with the Rams (5-3) as -1.5 point home favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 28.5 points and the Seahawks are currently at 27 points. The Rams are coming off their bye.

Goff posted a 35/61, 355, 1:2 passing line with 2 lost fumbles at Miami (20th vs. QBs) in Week 8.

Josh Allen put up a 31/38, 415, 3:0 passing line and 7-14-1 on the ground against the Seahawks last week.

The Seahawks’ defense ranks last against QBs in fantasy points allowed and last over the past four weeks. The Rams’ offense ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate vs. a Seahawks’ defense which ranks 21st. Goff should see clean pockets as he needs this to perform well.

A fast pace should help elevate play volume as these teams combine for the 3rd most plays/gm. this week.

The Seahawks’ defense has given up at least 26 fantasy points to opposing QBs in 6 of their 8 games this season.

Drew Lock (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7100 (11.8% of cap). Lock’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Raiders (5-3) has the game total at 50.5 points, with the Broncos (3-5) as -5 point road dogs. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Raiders are currently at 27.75 points.

Lock recorded a 25/48, 313, 2:1 passing line and 7-47-1 on the ground at Atlanta (31st vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB4 finish.

Justin Herbert recorded a 28/42, 326, 2:0 passing line and 5-24-0 on the ground against the Raiders last week.

The Raiders’ defense ranks 26h against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 25th over the past four weeks.

The Broncos’ offense ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Raiders’ defense which ranks 28th.

Lock does have the potential for a ceiling game in the right circumstance, as he has shown with an appearance in last week’s DK Milly winning lineup.

Running Back

Options other than Mike Davis chalk:

J.D. McKissic (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (9.8% of cap). McKissic’s upcoming salary ranks him 31st/40th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Lions (3-5) has the game total at 45.5 points, with Washington (2-6) as +3.5 point road dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Lions are currently at 24.5 points.

McKissic posted a 3-17-0 rushing line and 9-65-0 on 14 targets with 45 snaps (83%) against the Giants last week, good for the RB3 finish weirdly. McKissic’s targets and catches led the team for checkdown machine, Alex Smith.

The Vikings’ RBs combined for a 34-275-2 rushing line and 3-68-1 on 5 targets against the Lions last week.

The Lions’ DST ranks last vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and last over the past four weeks. Washington’s O-line ranks 15th in adjusted line yards vs. the Giants’ defense which ranks 16th.

McKissic would serve as a pivot off of Antonio Gibson, who plays behind McKissic in passing scenarios. McKissic’s top two season-high target games both came in Smith’s two appearances. If the negative game-script holds, McKissic should benefit.

Miles Sanders (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400 (12.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7700 (12.8% of cap). Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 9th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Giants (2-7) has the game total at 44.5 points with the Eagles (3-4-1) as -3.5 point road favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Giants are currently at 20.5 points.

Sanders (knee) hasn’t played since Week 6, but is expected to make his return this week.

Washington RBs put up a 9-37-1 rushing line, and 12-100-0 on 17 targets against the Giants last week.

The Giants rank 23rd vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 22nd over the past four weeks. Washington’s offense ranks 15th in adjusted line yards vs. the Giants’ defense which ranks 16th.

Sanders has matchup, game-script, and work-load going in his favor.

Wide Receiver

Josh Reynolds (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500 (7% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Reynolds’ upcoming salary ranks him 62nd/62nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Seahawks (6-2) has the game total at 55.5 points (2nd highest on the board), with the Rams (5-3) as -1.5 point home favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 28.5 points and the Seahawks are currently at 27 points.

Reynolds posted a 4-44-0 receiving line on 9 targets with 77 snaps (81%) at Miami (22nd vs. WRs) last week.

The Bills’ WRs combined for a 25-351-2 receiving line on 29 targets against the Seahawks last week.

The Seahawks’ defense ranks last vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and last over the past four weeks.

Reynolds averaged 4 catches on 8.5 targets in his last two, against tougher competition. He provides for a cheap option in an optimal game environment.

John Brown (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300 (10.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Brown’s upcoming salary ranks him 30th/38th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Cardinals (5-3) has the game total at 56 points (highest on the board) with the Bills (7-2) as +1.5 point road dogs. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 27.25 points and the Cardinals are currently at 28.75 points.

Brown posted an 8-99-0 receiving line on 11 targets with 53 snaps (78%) against the Seahawks (last vs. WRs) last week.

Dolphins’ WRs combined for a 15-170-2 receiving line on 18 targets against the Cardinals last week.

The Cardinals’ defense ranks 19th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, and 30th over the past four weeks.

A fast pace should help elevate play volume as these teams combine for the 5th most plays/gm. this week.

Smokey should be heavily involved again this week in a potential shootout, where he’s always a threat to house one.

Tight End

Austin Hooper (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900 (7.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Hooper’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Texans (2-6) has the game total at 50.5 points with the Browns (5-3) as -3 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 28.5 points and the Texans are currently at 25.5 points. The Browns are coming off their bye.

Hooper (appendix) hasn’t played since Week 6, but is expected to make his return this week. In his last three games played, Hooper averaged 7.6 targets, 5 catches, and 47.6 yards.

Jaguars’ TEs combined for a 5-57-0 receiving line on 7 targets against the Texans last week.

The Texans’ defense ranks 23rd vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 31st over the past four weeks.

Hooper gets a nice matchup, with a volume bump opportunity with Odell Beckham Jr. on IR.

Evan Engram (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Engram’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Eagles (3-4-1) has the game total at 44.5 points with the Giants (2-7) as +3.5 point home dogs. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Giants are currently at 20.5 points.

Engram posted a 5-48-1 receiving line on a team high 10 targets with 58 snaps (75%) at Washington (28th vs. TEs) last week, good for the TE3 finish.

Dalton Schultz put up a 6-53-0 receiving line on 8 targets at Philadelphia in Week 8.

The Eagles’ defense ranks 29th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, and 17th over the past four weeks.

Engram has averaged 9.6 targets, 5.3 catches, and 51.6 yards over his past three games. His usage is trending up, and the solid matchup works as well.