NFL Week 10 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 10: November 7 – 11, 2019
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 10.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3900 (6.5% of cap). The Chiefs’ salary ranks them 10th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Titans (4-5) has the game total at 48.5 points with the Chiefs (6-3) as -4 point road favorites. The Chiefs’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and the Titans are currently at 22.25 points.
At Minnesota last week, the Chiefs’ defense logged 1 sack and allowed 23 points. At Tennessee last week, the Panthers’ defense recorded 4 sacks, 2 picks, 1 fumble recovery, and allowed 20 points, good for a DST5 finish.
Tennessee gives up the most sacks with 38 while Kansas City’s defense ranks 7th in sacks with 26. The implied positive-script helps this mismatch potential, especially if Patrick Mahomes (knee) returns this week. Tennessee also gives up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Chiefs’ defense averages a whopping 10.3 more fantasy points/gm on the road vs. at home.
New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800 (5.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). The Giants’ salary ranks them 9th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Jets (1-7) has the game total at 43.5 points with the Giants (2-7) as -2.5 point favorites at MetLife Stadium (home to both teams). The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the Jets are currently at 20.5 points.
Against the Cowboys last week, the Giants’ defense logged 1 pick, 1 fumble recovery, and gave up 31 offensive points. Against the Jets last week, the formerly winless Dolphins’ defense recorded 3 sacks, 1 pick, 1 safety, and held the Jets to 16 offensive points, good for a DST6 (tied) finish.
The Jets toss up the most picks (tied) with 12, give up the 2nd most sacks with 37, and allow the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Giants’ defense ranks 6th (tied) in interceptions with 8, and 15th (tied) in sacks (22), and fantasy points/gm, giving the Giants significant mismatch advantages in these categories.
Now owning the cellar in the pathetic AFC East, the Jets feel like they are on the verge of implosion, particularly QB Sam Darnold. This does not seem anything like a bounce-back spot for the Jets, but more of a straight getting bounced spot. The timing couldn’t be better for the Giants to capitalize.
Buffalo Bills – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900 (5.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). The Bills’ salary ranks them 7th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.
Against Washington last week, the Bills’ defense logged 4 sacks and gave up 9 points, good for a DST6 finish. The Broncos’ defense registered 2 sacks and held the Browns to 19 points last week.
The betting line with the Browns (2-6) has the game total at 40 points (lowest on the board) with the Bills (6-2) as +3 point road dogs. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 18.5 points and the Browns are currently at 21.5 points.
The Browns give up the most interceptions (tied) with 12, the 9th most sacks with 23, and the 4th most fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Bills’ defense ranks 3rd in both yards allowed/gm (296.3) and points allowed/gm (16.4). The Bills’ defense also ranks 11th in fantasy points scored and 3rd in fantasy points allowed.
On paper, this matchup looks good for a solid Bills defense vs. a disappointing and struggling Browns offense.Last updated: November 5, 2019 at 19:15 pm