NFL Week 10 DFS Defense Value Picks
NFL Week 10: November 12 – 16, 2020
We’ll provide some details and insights on some of the potential top daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 10.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only.
Betting lines and weather projections are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made as new info comes to light.
New Orleans Saints – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4500 (7.5% of cap). The Saints’ salary ranks them 6th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the 49ers (4-5) has the game total at 50 points, with the Saints (6-2) as -9 point home favorites. The Saints’ implied team total is currently at 29.5 points and the 49ers are currently at 20.5 points.
The Saints’ defense registered 3 sacks, 3 interceptions, and gave up 3 offensive points at Tampa Bay last week, good for the DST1 finish.
The Packers’ defense logged 1 sack, 1 interception, 1 fumble recovery, and allowed 17 offensive points at San Francisco last week.
The Saints’ defense ranks 4th in adjusted sack rate vs. a 49ers’ offense which ranks 19th.
The 49ers rank 21st vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed, and give up the 7th most turnovers (13).
An injury-riddled 49ers team, forced to start backups at every offensive skill position, could provide a potential blow-up spot for the Saints’ DST.
WR Brandon Aiyuk (COVID list) has been cleared.
Washington Football Team – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200 (6.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3800 (6.3% of cap). Washington’s salary ranks them 5th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a much better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Lions (3-5) has the game total at 45.5 points, with Washington (2-6) as +3.5 point road dogs. Washington’s implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Lions are currently at 24.5 points.
Washington’s defense registered 5 sacks, and gave up 23 offensive points to the Giants last week.
The Vikings’ defense logged 2 sacks, 3 interceptions, and gave up 20 offensive points to the Lions last week.
Washington’s defense ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate vs. a Lions’ offense which ranks 21st. They also rank 10th in pressure rate (24.8%) vs. a Lions’ offense which allows the 8th highest pressure rate (24%).
The Lions rank 20th vs. defenses in fantasy points allowed. QB Matthew Stafford (concussion) and WR1 Kenny Golladay (hip) will need to be checked on later this week.
New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700 (5.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3900 (6.8% of cap). The Giants’ salary ranks them 10th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Eagles (3-4-1) has the game total at 45.5 points, with the Giants (2-7) as +3.5 point home dogs. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Eagles are currently at 24 points. The Eagles are coming off their bye.
The Giants’ defense logged 2 sacks, 3 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, and gave up 20 offensive points at Washington last week.
The Cowboys registered 4 sacks, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, and gave up 15 offensive points at Philadelphia in Week 8.
The Giants’ defense ranks 16th in adjusted sack rate vs. the Eagles’ offense which ranks 31st. The Giants’ defense also ranks 5th in QB hits (59) and 13th in pressure rate (23.7%) vs. the Eagles’ offense which allows the 4th highest pressure rate (26.6%).
The Eagles rank 28th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses, while the Giants’ DST ranks 9th in fantasy points/gm.