NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 2
NFL Week 2: September 16 – 20, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 2.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700 (13.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7600 (12.7% of cap). Herbert’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 – Over/Under: 55 (highest on the board)
Implied Team Totals:
Chargers = 29.25
Cowboys = 25.75
Herbert posted a passing line of 31/47, 337, 1:1, with 1 lost fumble at DC last week. Herbert’s fantasy points of 18.38/14.38 ranked him 22nd/26th on DK/FD, respectively. Herbert’s line could have been much better if not for numerous drops from his receivers.
Tom Brady recorded a 32/50, 379, 4:2 passing line, against the Cowboys last week, good for the QB4 finish with 32.16 fantasy points.
Last season, the Cowboys ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
The Cowboys took a blow as they lost their best defender DE DeMarcus Lawrence (broken foot) in practice on Wednesday. They may also be without their other DE Randy Gregory (Covid). The Cowboys’ defense ranked 31st in adjusted sack rate last week, prior to these events.
The Chargers O-line ranked 9th in adjusted sack rate against a formidable WFT front last week. With better luck and less dropsies, Herbert could crush it this week.
Running Back
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700 (11.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6400 (10.7% of cap). Henderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at Indianapolis Colts – Over/Under: 48.5
Implied Team Totals:
Rams = 26
Colts = 22.5
Henderson posted a 16-70-1 rushing line and 1-17-1 on 1 target with 49 snaps (94%) against the Bears last week. Henderson’s fantasy points of 15.7/15.2 ranked him 16th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Henderson’s snap rate ranked him 2nd in the league for RBs last week.
The Seahawks’ RBs combined for a 19-104-0 rushing line and 4-31-0 on 4 targets at Indy last week. The Colts’ defense ranked 31st in adjusted line yards last week, while the Rams’ O-line ranked 6th.
Last season, the Colts ranked 14th in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
The only other Rams’ RB to see the field was Sony Michel who got 1 carry for 2 yards. If Henderson can keep his chokehold role as an every-down workhorse, he offers a cheap value play, as a favorite with the hook.
Chris Carson (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100 (12.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6700 (11.2% of cap). Carson’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks -5.5 – Over/Under: 54 (2nd highest on the board)
Implied Team Totals:
Seahawks = 29.75
Titans = 24.25
Carson posted a 16-91-0 rushing line and 3-26-0 on 3 targets with 42 snaps (78%) at Indy last week. Carson’s fantasy points of 13.7/11.2 ranked him 21st/21st on DK/FD, respectively.
The Cardinals’ RBs combined for a 28-116-0 rushing line and 4-43-0 on 4 targets at Tennessee last week. The Seahawks’ O-line ranked 2nd in adjusted line yards while the Titans’ defense ranked 23rd last week.
Last season, the Titans ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to RBs.
Carson, as the Seahawks’ 3-down workhorse, and a home favorite, checks off a lot of boxes here, including price.
Wide Receiver
Cedrick Wilson (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100 (6.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4900 (8.3% of cap). Wilson’s upcoming salary ranks him 102nd/70th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The Line: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 – Over/Under: 55 (highest on the board)
Implied Team Totals:
Chargers = 29.25
Cowboys = 25.75
Wilson posted a 3-24-0 line on 3 targets (5.3%) with 34 snaps (40%) at Tampa Bay last week. Wilson will take over for WR3 Michael Gallup (calf/IR) who left last week’s game with a 4-36-0 line on 7 targets (12.3%) with 50 snaps (60%).
Last season, the Chargers ranked 5th in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Last season, the Cowboys ran 11-personnel at the 5th highest clip. As road dogs, with an implied negative script, Wilson’s snap count will increase as the new WR3, at a near minimum cost.
K.J. Osborn (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300 (6.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4600 (7.7% of cap). Osborn’s upcoming salary ranks him 88th/100th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals -3.5 – Over/Under: 50.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cardinals = 27
Vikings = 23.5
Osborn posted a 7-76-0 line on 9 targets (19.1%) with 67 snaps (81%) at Cincinnati last week. Osborn’s fantasy points of 14.6/11.1 ranked him 34th/40th on DK/FD, respectively. Osborn’s targets, catches, and yards ranked 2nd on the team behind Adam Thielen.
Titans’ WRs combined for a 12-150-1 line on 22 targets against the Cardinals last week.
Last season, the Cardinals ranked 14th in fantasy points allowed to WRs.
Facing an implied negative-script, Osborn, as the 3rd air option for the Vikings, provides volume potential for dirt cheap.
Tight End
Tyler Higbee (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100 (8.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Higbee’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Los Angeles Rams -3.5 at Indianapolis Colts – Over/Under: 48.5
Implied Team Totals:
Rams = 26
Colts = 22.5
Higbee posted a 5-68-0 line on 6 targets (23%) with 52 snaps (100%) against the Bears last week. His targets and catches ranked 2nd on the team. Higbee’s fantasy points of 11.8/9.3 ranked him 9th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Higbee was only one of two TEs (Logan Thomas, the other) in the league to see 100% of his team snaps.
Seahawks’ TEs combined for a 5-57-1 line on 5 targets at Indianapolis last week.
Last season, the Colts ranked 5th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.
As the only receiving TE on the team, Higbee will have his opportunities, and has shown a rapport with Matthew Stafford out of the gate.
Noah Fant (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200 (8.4% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Fant’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Denver Broncos -6 at Jacksonville Jaguars – Over/Under: 45
Implied Team Totals:
Broncos = 25.5
Jaguars = 19.5
Fant posted a 6-62-0 line on a team high 8 targets (22.9%) with 51 snaps (77%) at the Giants last week. Fant’s fantasy points of 12.2/9.2 ranked him 7th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
Texans’ TEs combined for a 4-67-0 line on 7 targets against the Jaguars last week.
Last season, the Jaguars ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.
WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle) has been placed on IR, elevating Fant into a heavier usage role. QB Bridgewater is effective in the short to medium range, which is a natural fit for Fant.
