NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 13
NFL Week 13: December 2 – 6, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 13.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Derek Carr (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/8thon DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Washington Football Team (5-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) -2.5 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 26
Washington = 23.5
Carr posted a 24/39, 373, 1:0 passing line and 2-21-0 on the ground at Dallas (23rd vs. QBs) last week.
Russell Wilson logged a 20/31, 247, 2:0 passing line and 2-16-0 on the ground at Washington last week.
Washington ranks 32nd vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, 30th in pass defense DVOA, and 29th in dropback EPA.
The Raiders’ O-line ranks 17th in adjusted sack rate vs. Washington’s defense which ranks 22nd.
Carr leads the league in passing yardage (310.4/gm) and has hit the passing yards bonus in 6 of 12 games. He’ll get favorable matchup this week.
Running Back
Antonio Gibson (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Gibson’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Washington Football Team (5-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) -2.5 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 26
Washington = 23.5
Gibson logged a 29-111-0 rushing line (3.8 avg.) and 7-35-0 on 7 targets (20.6%) with 57 snaps (68%) against the Seahawks (31st vs. RBs) last week.
Cowboys’ RBs combined for a 19-61-1 rushing line (3.2 avg.) and 10-56-0 on 12 targets against the Raiders last week.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 30th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 17th in rush defense DVOA, and 11th in rush defense EPA. Washington’s O-line ranks 16th in adjusted line yards vs. the Raiders’ defense which ranks 18th.
Gibson has averaged 27 touches over the last three games, and with RB J.D. McKissic (neck) possibly in danger of missing this week, Gibson should continue to see a voluminous workload.
UPDATE:
McKissic (concussion) has been ruled out.
James Conner (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7300. Conner’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Arizona Cardinals (9-2) -7.5 at Chicago Bears (4-7) – Over/Under: 44.5. The Cardinals are coming off their bye.
Implied Team Totals:
Cardinals = 26
Bears = 18.5
Conner logged a 21-62-1 rushing line (3.0 avg.) and 5-37-0 on 6 targets with 68 snaps (82%) at Seattle (31st vs. RBs) in Week 11.
Lions’ RBs combined for a 19-76-0 rushing line (4.0 avg.) and 8-27-0 on 9 targets against the Bears last week.
The Bears’ defense ranks 14th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 19th in rush defense DVOA, and 25th in rush defense EPA. The Cardinals’ O-line ranks 21st in adjusted line yards vs. the Bears’ defense which ranks 27th.
Conner ranks 3rd in total TDs (13) for RBs. Conner should see another every-down workload in a favorable matchup.
Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 6400. Renfrow’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/25th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Washington Football Team (5-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) -2.5 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 26
Washington = 23.5
Renfrow posted an 8-134-0 line on 9 targets (23.7%) with 64 snaps (74%), at Dallas (28th vs. WRs) last week.
Seahawks WRs combined for a 7-151-1 line on 14 targets at Washington last week.
Washington’s defense ranks 29th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 30th in pass defense DVOA, and 29th in dropback EPA.
With Darren Waller (knee) likely out, Renfrow should assume the target leader role, in a friendly matchup.
Brandon Aiyuk (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Aiyuk’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: San Francisco 49ers (6-5) -3 at Seattle Seahawks (3-8) – Over/Under: 45.5
Implied Team Totals:
49ers = 26
Seahawks = 21.25
Aiyuk posted a 3-91-0 line on 6 targets (23.1%) with 63 snaps (90%), against the Vikings (32nd vs. WRs) last week.
Washington WRs combined for an 11-116-0 line on 15 targets against the Seahawks last week.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks 19th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 27th in pass defense DVOA, and 26th in dropback EPA.
Deebo Samuel (groin) is looking like he’ll miss at least this week. Deebo operated more as an RB the past two games, but as the 49ers’ total TD leader (10), those potential scores will need to go elsewhere.
Tight End
Foster Moreau (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Moreau’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Washington Football Team (5-6) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-5) -2.5 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 26
Washington = 23.5
Moreau posted a 1-3-0 line on 5 targets (13.2%) with 77 snaps (89%) at Dallas (22nd vs. TEs) last week.
Seahawks’ TEs combined for a 7-56-1 line on 11 targets at Washington last week.
Washington’s defense ranks 15th vs. TEs in fantasy points.
Injured last week, TE Darren Waller (knee) is likely to miss at least this week. In Moreau’s only other start for Waller in Week 7, he logged a 6-60-1 receiving line on 6 targets and 100% of the snaps for 18 fantasy points. If Moreau comes anywhere near this level of production, he would be a strong value.
James O’Shaughnessy (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. O’Shaughnessy’s upcoming salary ranks him 32nd/32nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-9) at Los Angeles Rams (7-4) -12.5 – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Rams = 30
Jaguars = 17.5
O’Shaughnessy posted a 3-29-0 line on 5 targets (12.2%) with 59 snaps (81%) against the Falcons (12th vs. TEs) last week.
Packers’ TEs combined for a 4-17-0 line on 7 targets against the Rams last week.
The Rams’ defense ranks 21st vs. TEs in fantasy points, 12th in pass defense DVOA, and 13th in dropback EPA.
TE Dan Arnold (knee) has been placed on IR, leaving O’Shaughnessy as the next man up. Arnold offers a near min priced, full-time, potential garbage-time, dart throw option.
