NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 12
NFL Week 12: November 25 – November 29, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 12.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Cam Newton (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 8000. Newton’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Carolina Panthers (5-6) -2 at Miami Dolphins (4-7) – Over/Under: 42.5.
Implied Team Totals:
Panthers = 22.25
Dolphins = 20.25
Newton dropped a 21/27, 189, 2:0 passing line and 10-46-1 on the ground with 9 snaps against Washington (32nd vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB5 finish.
Joe Flacco logged a 24/39, 291, 2:0 passing line with a lost fumble against the Dolphins last week.
The Dolphins ranks 28th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, 21st in pass defense DVOA, and 19th in dropback EPA.
The Panthers O-line ranks 24th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Dolphins’ defense which ranks 19th. The Dolphins have given up the 5th most rush yards (30.0/gm.) to QBs over the past four games.
Newton was the 4th best QB value play last week, and was also in the Week 11 Milly Maker winning lineup. He’s back as an undervalued DK play with another solid matchup this week.
Running Back
Miles Sanders (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 6100. Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 24th/19th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Philadelphia Eagles (5-6) -3.5 at New York Giants (3-7) – Over/Under: 45.5
Implied Team Totals:
Eagles = 24.5
Giants = 21
Sanders logged a 16-94-0 rushing line (5.9 avg.) and 0-0-0 on 1 target with 36 snaps (46%) and a lost fumble against the Saints (3rd vs. RBs) last week.
Bucs’ RBs combined for a 21-72-1 rushing line (3.4 avg.) and 7-42-0 on 7 targets against the Giants last week.
The Giants’ defense ranks 28th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 30th in rush defense DVOA, and 30th in rush defense EPA. The Eagles’ O-line ranks 7th in adjusted line yards vs. the Giants’ defense which ranks 31st.
The Eagles own the highest rushing play % on the season (49.6%) and over their last three games (64.7%). RB Jordan Howard (knee) will likely miss this week.
Sanders should see a positive opportunity as favorites, with a great matchup.
A.J. Dillon (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 14th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Los Angeles Rams (7-3) at Green Bay Packers (8-3) -1 – Over/Under: 48. The Rams are coming off their bye.
Implied Team Totals:
Packers = 24.5
Rams = 23.5
Dillon logged a 11-53-0 rushing line (4.8 avg.) and 6-44-0 on 6 targets with 44 snaps (75%) at Minnesota (22nd vs. RBs) last week.
49ers’ RBs combined for a 37-119-0 rushing line (3.2 avg.) and 1-6-0 on 1 target against the Rams in Week 10.
The Rams’ defense ranks 15th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 7th in rush defense DVOA, and 20th in rush defense EPA. The Packers’ O-line ranks 9th in adjusted line yards vs. the Rams’ defense which ranks 7th.
Dillon will get a script-proof role, as the supposed #2 weapon in the offense. Dillon’s cost for his role makes him a solid value.
UPDATE:
RB Aaron Jones (knee) got in a limited practice on Friday, and is now questionable.
Wide Receiver
Chris Godwin (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7000, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Godwin’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) -2.5 at Indianapolis Colts (6-5) – Over/Under: 52.
Implied Team Totals:
Buccaneers = 27.5
Colts = 24.5
Godwin posted a 6-65-1 line on 6 targets (12.8%) with 62 snaps (79%), against the Giants (25th vs. WRs) last week.
Bills’ WRs combined for a 16-125-2 line on 24 targets against the Colts last week.
The Colts’ defense ranks 28th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 20th in pass defense DVOA, and 22nd in dropback EPA.
Godwin gets a good matchup on the slate’s highest implied game total. The Bucs are the 2nd pass-happiest team at 67% on the season, and 1st over the past three games at 70.2%. This trend should definitely continue against a pass funnel defense which is the 2nd best team vs. the run.
Tight End
Rob Gronkowski (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Gronk’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3) -2.5 at Indianapolis Colts (6-5) – Over/Under: 52.
Implied Team Totals:
Buccaneers = 27.5
Colts = 24.5
Gronkowski posted a 6-71-0 line on 8 targets (17%) with 46 snaps (59%) against the Giants (19th vs. TEs) last week.
Dawson Knox logged a 6-80-0 line on 10 targets against the Colts last week.
The Colts’ defense ranks 27th vs. TEs in fantasy points, 20th in pass defense DVOA, and allowed the 5th most TE receptions (6.5/gm.) over the past four games.
When healthy, Gronk is always a viable option, and gets a positive matchup this week.
