NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 11
NFL Week 11: November 18 – November 22, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 11.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (12 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Cam Newton (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Newton’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Washington Football Team (3-6) at Carolina Panthers (5-5) -3.5 – Over/Under: 43.
Implied Team Totals:
Panthers = 23.25
Washington = 19.75
Newton dropped a 3/4, 8, 1:0 passing line and 3-14-1 on the ground with 9 snaps at Arizona (6th vs. QBs) last week.
Tom Brady logged a 23/34, 220, 2:2 passing line at Washington last week.
Washington ranks 32nd vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, 29th in pass defense DVOA, and 30th in dropback EPA. DE Chase Young (ACL) is done for the season.
The Panthers O-line ranks 23rd in adjusted sack rate vs. Washington’s defense which ranks 14th.
Cam returns to the Panthers, and immediately provided a spark for a team desperate for a QB. His red zone prowess is again a factor, as his two scores on nine snaps would indicate. Cam provides for a great DK value, as he’s the same price as Jared Goff 🤣.
UPDATE:
HC Rhule stated that P.J. Walker would take some snaps, as Cam doesn’t know the entire playbook yet. Cam will still own all the high quality and end zone touches.
Running Back
A.J. Dillon (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Dillon’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Green Bay Packers (8-2) -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings (4-5) – Over/Under: 49
Implied Team Totals:
Packers = 25.75
Vikings = 23.25
Dillon logged a 21-66-2 rushing line (3.1 avg.) and 2-62-0 on 2 targets with 36 snaps (49%) against the Seahawks (31st vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB4 finish.
Chargers’ RBs combined for a 17-60-1 rushing line (3.5 avg.) and 3-15-1 on 6 targets against the Vikings last week.
The Vikings’ defense ranks 18th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 28th in rush defense DVOA, and 31st in rush EPA. The Packers’ O-line ranks 9th in adjusted line yards vs. the Vikings’ defense which ranks 32nd.
With RB Aaron Jones (knee) injury last week, he is expected to miss multiple weeks. Dillon will now get the full-time nod. The Packers’ offensive usage is relatively condensed. The RBs last week combined for 36 out of 55 total touches.
Wide Receiver
Marcus Johnson (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Johnson’s upcoming salary ranks him 64th/40th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Houston Texans (1-8) at Tennessee Titans (8-2) -10 – Over/Under: 44.5. The Texans are coming off their bye.
Implied Team Totals:
Titans = 27.25
Texans = 17.25
Johnson posted a 5-100-0 line on 6 targets (22.2%) with 38 snaps (63%), against the Saints (26th vs. WRs) last week. Johnson’s targets, catches, and yards led the team.
The Texans rank 20th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 14th in pass defense DVOA, and 26th in dropback EPA.
With Julio Jones (hamstring) placed on IR, Johnson takes over the X role. Johnson has averaged 5.3 targets and a 20% target share in three games without Julio. If Johnson comes in as a WR2 in Julio’s absence, he may have a shot to do some damage with the 5+ targets he should see.
Michael Gallup (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Gallup’s upcoming salary ranks him 47th/48th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Dallas Cowboys (7-2) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4) -2.5 – Over/Under: 56.5.
Implied Team Totals:
Chiefs= 29.5
Cowboys= 27
Gallup posted a 3-42-0 line on 5 targets (15.2%) with 41 snaps (53%) against the Falcons (24th vs. WRs) last week.
Raiders’ WRs combined for a 12-194-2 line on 17 targets against the Chiefs last week.
The Chiefs rank 12th vs WRs in fantasy points allowed, 28th in pass defense DVOA, and 27th in dropback EPA.
The Cowboys rank 2nd in neutral script pace and the Chiefs rank 9th. The Cowboys will throw when forced to, and that may very well happen as implied dogs. In a positive environment where both teams play with a quick pace, Gallup provides for a cheap option in a potential shootout.
Tee Higgins (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Higgins’ upcoming salary ranks him 24th/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Cincinnati Bengals (5-4) -1 at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4) – Over/Under: 49.5. The Bengals are coming off their bye.
Implied Team Totals:
Bengals = 25.25
Raiders = 24.25
Higgins posted a 6-78-0 line on 8 targets (19.5%) with 57 snaps (76%), against the Browns (22nd vs. WRs) in Week 9. His catches and yards led the team.
Chiefs’ WRs combined for a 17-195-3 line on 23 targets at Las Vegas last week.
The Raiders rank 6th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 22nd in pass defense DVOA, and 24th in dropback EPA.
Higgins has averaged 5.7 catches, 79 yards, and 13.6 fantasy points over his last three games without a score. Higgins hasn’t scored since Week 2 and has two on the season. This game has decent shootout potential and he’s got to hit sooner or later.
Tight End
Dan Arnold (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4100, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Arnold’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: San Francisco 49ers (4-5) -6.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7) – Over/Under: 45.
Implied Team Totals:
49ers = 25.75
Jaguars = 19.25
Arnold posted a 5-67-0 line on 7 targets (20%) with 45 snaps (67%) at Indianapolis (27th vs. TEs) last week. Arnold’s catches and yards has led the team in three consecutive weeks.
Rams’ TEs combined for an 4-22-1 line on 6 targets at San Francisco last week.
The 49ers rank 18th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed over the past four weeks, and 20th in pass defense DVOA.
Arnold has averaged 8 targets, 5.7 catches, 65 receiving yards, and 12.8 fantasy points over the past three games. Arnold has been consistent at a volatile position.
