NFL Week 6: October 13th – 17th, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 6. These defenses were value targeted outside the top five chalk defenses for this week.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Baltimore Ravens – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Baltimore’s salary ranks them 17th/11th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Giants at 44 points (3rd lowest on the board) with the Ravens as +3 point road dogs.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 3rd in total yards allowed, 4th in rush yards allowed, 5th in pass yards allowed, and 7th in points allowed. Baltimore’s defense also ranks 1st in run defense DVOA, 2nd against RBs, 5th against TEs, and 7th against QBs in fantasy points allowed. The Giants’ offense ranks 27th in rushing yards, points scored, and 18th in total yards.
Eli Manning has a 5:4 line and 9 sacks taken through five weeks. RB Rashad Jennings (thumb) may or may not return this week, but that matters little, with a Giants’ run game looking to get stuffed either way. Baltimore should potentially force a pass-funnel game from Eli, where good things await for defenses. Baltimore’s relatively low price would make them a potentially viable plug play against a struggling Giants team going on three straight losses.
Green Bay Packers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Green Bay’s salary ranks them 13th/11th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Cowboys at 47.5 points with the Packers as -4 point home favorites.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 1st in rush yards allowed, against RBs, 2nd in rushing TDs allowed (1), 5th in sacks, 9th in total yards allowed, and 12th in points allowed. Green Bay ranks at or near the bottom-third against the pass. The Cowboys’ offense ranks 1st in rush yards, rushing TDs, 21st in pass yards, 8th in points scored, and last in passing TDs.
This matchup boils down to “strength vs. strength” on the ground. RB Ezekiel Elliott faces an implied negative game script, and averages about 2 targets per game. If the Packers can contain Elliott, Dak Prescott could potentially be forced into more passing snaps with Jason Witten and Cole Beasley at his disposal, as Dez Bryant is expected to miss this game.
Houston Texans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. Houston’s salary ranks them 11th/17th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Colts at 46 points with the Texans as -3 point home favorites.
Houston’s defense ranks 1st in pass yards allowed, 25th in rush yards allowed, 7th in sacks (13), and 12th in points allowed. Houston also ranks 5th against QBs and WRs, 2nd against TEs, and 20th against RBs in fantasy points allowed. The Colts’ offense ranks 9th in passing yards, 20th in rushing yards, and 7th in points scored.
Houston’s defense may be facing their toughest test to date, with an aerial “strength vs. strength” matchup against Andrew Luck. Luck leads the league in sacks taken (20), but does have a slight implied positive game script. Houston is weak against the run, but Frank Gore won’t be breaking one for 80 anytime ever. Their focus should be geared towards containing Luck’s favorite target, T.Y. Hilton, and blowing up the Colts’ weak O-line. Houston’s secondary is potentially very thin, however, with CB Jonathan Joseph (concussion) and S Quintin Demps (calf) exiting last week’s game. Their playing status can be monitored later in the week by reviewing the NFL injury report, but if they are out, this situation could be very problematic for Houston’s secondary.
Tennessee Titans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. Tennessee’s salary ranks them 6th on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Browns at 43.5 points (tied for lowest on the board) with the Titans as -7 point home favorites (4th largest spread).
Tennessee’s defense ranks 10th in total yards allowed and points allowed, 9th in passing yards allowed, 14th in rushing yards allowed, tied for 5th in picks, and tied for 8th in sacks. Tennessee ranks 5th against QBs and RBs, 6th against WRs, and 14th against TEs in fantasy points allowed.
Tennessee gets a turn against Cleveland this week, with QB Cody Kessler projected to start under center. Cleveland’s offense ranks 5th in rush yards, but face an implied negative game script. If Tennessee can contain Isaiah Crowell and jump to a lead, Cleveland’s best strength could be neutralized and Kessler’s hand would be forced in Tennessee’s favor.
Check out the Week 6 DFS value player picks here.
Check out the Week 6 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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