NFL Week 5 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 5 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 5: October 4 – 8, 2018

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 5.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 8100. Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 12th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Cousins posted a 36/50, 422, 3:0 line and 4-28-0 on the ground with a lost fumble at the Los Angeles Rams last week. Cousins’ fantasy points of 35.68/31.68 ranked him 5th/6th on DK/FD, respectively. Cousins’ price per point efficiency ranked him 6th on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Eagles has the game total at 44.5 points with the Vikings as -3 point road dogs. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Eagles are currently at 23.75 points.

The Eagles rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 27th against WRs. The Eagles’ defense also ranks 12th in DVOA against the pass and 19th in pass yards allowed with 271.5/gm. Marcus Mariota put up a 30/43, 344, 2:1 line and 10-46-1 on the ground against Philadelphia, making him the #7 QB last week.

The matchup should bode well for Cousins in this one. The Eagles’ defense ranks 1st in rush yards allowed with 63.8/gm, 2nd in fantasy points allowed to RBs, and 3rd in DVOA against the run. The Vikings’ offense ranks last in both rush yards with 63/gm and DVOA in the run.

The only path for success for the Vikings offensively will be through Cousins and the pass game, where they get a favorable matchup.

Andy Dalton (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Dalton’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th on both DK/FD for the position. Dalton posted a line of 29/41, 337, 3:1 at Atlanta last week. Dalton’s fantasy points of 28.78/25.78 ranked him 9th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Dalton’s price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Dolphins has the game total at 49.5 points with the Bengals as -6.5 point home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 28 points and the Dolphins are currently at 21.5 points.

The Dolphins rank 4th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 8th in DVOA against the pass. The Dolphins also give up the 26th most pass yards per game with 284.3. The Dolphins’ defense ranks 29th (tied) in sacks with 6 and 1st in interceptions with 9. Tom Brady put up a 23/35, 274, 3:2 line against the Dolphins last week.

Dalton ranks 2nd (tied) in TD passes with 11 and 9th in fantasy points for the position among active starters. The loss of TE Tyler Eifert (broken ankle) and the questionable status of WR John Ross (leg) do not help matters however. The matchup isn’t ideal but his consistent production this season for his cost puts him in play.

Blake Bortles (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Bortles’ upcoming salary ranks him 19th/20th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Bortles posted a 29/38, 388, 2:1 line and 3-28-0 on the ground last week. Bortles’ fantasy points of 28.32/25.32 ranked him 10th on both DK/FD. Bortles’ price per point efficiency ranked him 8th on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 48.5 points with the Jaguars as +3 point road dogs. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 25.75 points.

The Chiefs’ defense ranks 28th in fantasy points allowed to QBs, 31st in pass yards allowed per game with 328.5, and 25th in points allowed with 28.8/gm. The Chiefs also rank 30th in DVOA against the pass. Case Keenum put up a 21/33, 245, 0:1 line at Kansas City last week.

RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) will miss week 5 which bodes well for Bortles’ out-of-split scheme. If the negative game script holds, Bortles should be busy with a great matchup against one of the worst defenses in the league.

Running Back

Nyheim Hines (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Hines’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/14th on DK/FD, respectively. Hines posted a 4-10-0 rush line and 9-63-2 on 11 targets against the Texans last week. Hines’ targets, catches, and TDs were all team highs last week. Hines’ fantasy points of 28.3/23.8 ranked him 8th on both DK/FD for the position. Hines’ price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Patriots has the game total at 51.5 points with the Colts as +10 point road dogs on Thursday night. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 20.75 points and the Patriots are currently at 30.75 points.

The Patriots rank 17th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 27th in DVOA against RBs in the pass. The Dolphins’ RBs combined for a 16-47-0 line and 3-29-1 on 5 targets at New England last week.

RB Marlon Mack (hamstring) practiced Tuesday and it is plausible he returns, however, he should be a total non-factor concerning Hines as the Colts offense ranks 28th in both rush yards per game and DVOA in the run.

Hines aligned all over the formation last week. One of his two TDs came out of the slot. Hines is the only Colts RB with red zone scores with 3. WR1 TY Hilton (hamstring) and TE Jack Doyle (hip) will miss this week. With the negative game-script sure to be in play, Andrew Luck may yet have another 60 attempt game waiting for him. Hines should expect another high-target game and is priced like a TE.

TJ Yeldon (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Yeldon’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th on both DK/FD. Yeldon posted an 18-52-1 line and 3-48-1 on 3 targets against the Jets last week. Yeldon’s fantasy points of 24/21.5 ranked him 12th on both DK/FD for the position. Yeldon’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Chiefs has the game total at 49 points with the Jaguars as +3 point road dogs. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 23 points and the Chiefs are currently at 26 points.

The Chiefs rank 31st in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 28th in rushing yards allowed with 123.3/gm. The Chiefs also rank last in DVOA against the run, and last in DVOA against RBs in the pass. The Broncos’ RBs combined for a 21-141-2 line and 4-51-0 on 5 targets against the Chiefs last week.

RB Leonard Fournette (hamstring) added 35 yards on 12 touches last week, but re-aggravated his hamstring as he was mistakenly brought back too early. This coaching mistake will now likely cost Fournette multiple games.

Regardless of game-script, Yeldon is set to see a three-down workload with an optimal matchup.

Kareem Hunt (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 7800. Hunt’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/7th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Hunt posted a 19-121-1 line and 3-54-0 on 4 targets at Denver last week. Hunt’s fantasy points of 29.5/25 ranked him 7th on both DK/FD for the position. Hunt’s price per point efficiency ranked him 12th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.

The Jaguars rank 5th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 6th in DVOA against the run, and 10th in rushing yards allowed with 95/gm. The Jets’ RBs combined for a 12-26-0 line and 5-29-0 on 8 targets against the Jets last week.

Hunt saw a season-high in targets last week and was actually utilized in the pass-game for the first time this season. Jacksonville’s elite defense could, in theory, stymie Patrick Mahomes’ aerial game, allowing Hunt an increased role in both phases of the offense. WR Sammy Watkins’ (hamstring) status for week 5 is currently unknown.

Hunt should see at least 20 touches regardless of game script.

Wide Receiver

Taywan Taylor (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Taylor’s upcoming salary ranks him 60th/72nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Taylor posted a 7-77-0 line on 9 targets against the Eagles last week.

The betting lines with the Bills has the game total at 39 points (lowest on the board) with the Titans as -3.5 point road favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points and the Bills are currently at 17.75 points.

The Bills’ defense ranks 11th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 15th in DVOA against the pass. Green Bay WRs combined for a 15-199-0 line on 28 targets against the Bills last week.

WR1 Corey Davis should mostly face off against CB1 TreDavious White, leaving Taylor as the better matchup option for Marcus Mariota. Taylor’s targets ranked tied for 2nd on the team, and this pattern should continue as receiver targets are looking to be concentrated in Tennessee. Taylor makes for a viable option at a dirt cheap price.

Keke Coutee (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Coutee’s upcoming salary ranks him 56th on both DK/FD for the position. Coutee posted an 11-109-0 line on 15 targets at Carolina last week. Coutee’s targets and catches led the team. Coutee’s fantasy points of 24.7/16.2 ranked him 15th/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Coutee’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/8th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Cowboys has the game total at 45 points with the Texans as -3 point home favorites. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Cowboys are currently at 21 points.

The Cowboys rank 7th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 26th in DVOA against the pass. The Cowboys also rank 6th in pass yards allowed per game with 208.5 and 7th in points allowed per game with 19.3. The Cowboys run the 3rd fewest plays per game, but the Texans run the 5th most. If the game-script holds, this scenario favors Houston. The Lions’ WRs combined for a 15-262-2 line on 19 targets against the Cowboys last week.

Coutee’s snap rate of 93% ranked 2nd behind DeAndre Hopkins’ 100% last week. Coutee primarily runs out of the slot and provides an excellent option for Deshaun Watson when the Hopkins option isn’t available. WR Will Fuller’s (hamstring) status is unknown at the time of this writing. Note that RB Lamar Miller did not receive a single target last week. Watson’s target concentration looks to be coming more defined and Coutee is looking to be a substantial part of this.

Update:
Coutee (hamstring) has been listed as questionable as has Fuller. Both are expected to play this week.

Tight End

Austin Hooper (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Hooper’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Hooper posted a 1-19-0 line on 2 targets against the Bengals last week.

The betting lines with the Steelers has the game total at 57 points (highest on the season) with the Falcons as +3 point road dogs. The Falcons’ implied team total is currently at 27 points and the Steelers are currently at 30 points.

The Steelers’ defense ranks 31st in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 24th in DVOA against TEs. The Steelers’ defense also ranks 29th in pass yards allowed with 304.8/gm and 26th in points allowed with 29/gm. Baltimore TEs combined for a 10-99-0 line on 12 targets at Pittsburgh last week.

Logan Paulsen caught Atlanta’s TE TD last week on a blown coverage, but Hooper out-snapped Paulsen 81% to 41%, so we can chalk that up to variance. Hooper has 4 red zone targets which ranks 6th (tied) for TEs and he has converted one for a TD.

Everyone and their DFS playin’ mother will be looking for exposure to this game, and Hooper provides the cheapest pathway here with a stellar matchup.

Vance McDonald (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. McDonald’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on FD. McDonald posted a 5-62-0 line on 5 targets with a lost fumble against Baltimore last week. McDonald’s fantasy points of 10.2/6.7 ranked him 15th/21st on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.

The Falcons’ defense ranks 13th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 5th in DVOA against TEs. The Falcons’ defense also ranks 25th in pass yards allowed with 284/gm and 30th in points allowed with 30.5/gm. Bengals’ TEs combined for a 5-33-1 line on 6 targets against the Falcons last week.

McDonald out-snapped Jesse James 62% to 44% and James is typically the blocking end when the Steelers roll with 12 personnel. In this anticipated shootout, McDonald is a cheap, viable play for the position.

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