NFL Week 4 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 4 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 4: September 27 – October 1, 2018

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 4.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Mayfield’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Coming off the bench after Tyrod Taylor went down with 1:42 left in the first half, Mayfield posted a 17/23, 201, 0:0 line for a 100.1 passer rating in just over a half last week.

The betting lines with the Raiders has the game total at 45 points with the Browns as +2.5 point road dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points and the Raiders are currently at 23.75 points.

The Raiders’ defense ranks 21st in fantasy points allowed to QBs, 19th in pass yards allowed per game with 258, and 22nd in points allowed with 27/gm. The Raiders also rank 31st in DVOA against the pass. The Raiders cannot provide a pass rush as they rank dead last in sacks with 3 and QB hits with 9. They are also tied for last in turnovers with one.

Ryan Tannehill put up a 17/23, 289, 3:0 line and 3-26-0 on the ground against Oakland last week. Tannehill’s 26.16 fantasy points ranked him 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.

Unbelievably, Mayfield had never taken any first team reps until coming off the bench last week. The Browns’ passing game will have a new dynamic and the Raiders’ defense poses little threat. However, there is always the Hue factor. Hue may attempt to hold Mayfield back as a rookie making his first start on the road. This scenario would make Carlos Hyde a nice pivot.

Andy Dalton (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Dalton’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Dalton posted a line of 29/46, 352, 2:4 at Carolina last week. Dalton’s fantasy points of 21.08/18.08 ranked him 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Dalton’s price per point efficiency ranked him 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Falcons has the game total at 51 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Bengals as +5.5 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Falcons are currently at 28.25 points.

The Falcons rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 25th in DVOA against the pass. The Falcons also give up the 25th most points per game with 28.3.

Drew Brees put up a 39/49, 396, 3:0 line and 3-7-2 on the ground at Atlanta last week which made him the #1 fantasy QB last week.

Atlanta’s defense has been hammered with injuries as they now have lost FS Ricardo Allen (Achilles). Along with MLB Deion Jones (foot) and SS Keanu Neal (ACL) already on IR, a bad defense just got worse as there is a canyon sized hole in the middle of this defense.

This game is setting up as a shootout scenario for Dalton if the implied negative script holds. Dalton has weapons to utilize (sans Joe Mixon) to try to match the Falcons’ output. This is also assuming that A.J. Green (groin) is a full go.

And then there’s the other side of this game…

Matt Ryan (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 8100. Ryan’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Ryan posted a 26/35, 374, 5:0 line and 4-12-0 on the ground against New Orleans last week. Ryan’s fantasy points of 43.6/40.6 ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD. Ryan’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK/FD.

The Bengals rank 26th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 13th in DVOA against the pass. The Bengals also give up the 9th most pass yards per game with 270.3 and the 12th (tied) most points per game with 25.7.

Cam Newton put up a 14/24, 150, 2:0 line and 10-36-2 on the ground against Cincinnati last week.

Ryan has been on fire the past two weeks, totaling 9 TDs during this span. He’ll get a solid matchup in his home dome.

Running Back

Carlos Hyde (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Hyde’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/14th on DK/FD, respectively. Hyde posted a 23-98-2 rush line and 2-5-0 on 3 targets against the Jets last week. Hyde’s fantasy points of 24.3/23.3 ranked him 5th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Hyde’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD.

The betting lines with the Raiders has the game total at 45 points with the Browns as +2.5 point road dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points and the Raiders are currently at 23.75 points.

The Raiders rank 13th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 28th in DVOA against the run. The Raiders’ defense also ranks 22nd in rush yards allowed per game with 116.3. The Dolphins’ RBs combined for an 11-15-0 line and 2-7-0 on 4 targets against the Raiders last week.

Hyde owns this Cleveland backfield as he dominates RB snaps and touches. Duke Johnson has become an afterthought this season. Hyde’s touches ranks him 6th in the league with 65 and his 4 red zone rush TDs is tied for 1st with Todd Gurley.

Hyde’s volume opportunity should be fairly secure. Despite the slight negative implied game script, the Browns could outright win this game.

Gio Bernard (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 6400. Bernard’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. Bernard posted a 12-61-1 line and 5-25-0 on 9 targets (team high) at Carolina last week. Bernard’s fantasy points of 19.6/17.1 ranked him 8th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Bernard’s price per point efficiency ranked him 115th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Falcons has the game total at 51 points with the Bengals as +5.5 point road dogs. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Falcons are currently at 28.25 points.

The Falcons rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and last in DVOA against the run. The Saints’ RBs combined for a 20-77-0 line and 18-131-1 on 23 targets at Atlanta last week.

Gio gets a solid matchup against a banged up defense. He’ll make for a safe floor play, assuming Joe Mixon misses again this week.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Callaway (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Callaway’s upcoming salary ranks him 55th/101st on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Callaway posted a 4-20-0 line on 10 targets (2nd on team) against the Jets last week.

The betting lines with the Raiders has the game total at 53.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Browns as +1 point home dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 26.25 points and the Raiders are currently at 27.25 points.

The Raiders defense ranks 29th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 31st in DVOA against the pass. The Dolphins’ WRs combined for a 12-287-4 line on 16 targets against the Raiders last week.

Callaway’s snap count of 69 led all Browns WRs at 90%. Callaway’s potential will have a higher ceiling with Mayfield under center. Despite the 20 receiving yards, Callaway ranked 2nd (tied) in air yards with 185 last week. Callaway was also clocked as the 3rd fastest ball carrier thus far this season at 21.48 mph.

Callaway’s cheap price can easily deliver big value if the volume continues against a weak secondary.

Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Boyd’s upcoming salary ranks him 48th/49th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Boyd posted a 6-132-1 line on 7 targets at Carolina last week. Boyd’s fantasy points of 28.7/22.7 ranked him 4th (tied) on both DK/FD for the position. Boyd’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD.

The Falcons rank 22nd in fantasy points allowed to WRs and rank 25th in DVOA against the pass. The Falcons also give up the 26th most pass yards per game with 276 and also give up the 25th most points per game with 28.3. The Saints’ WRs combined for a 15-169-2 line on 19 targets against the Falcons last week.

Boyd’s snaps, catches, yards, and TDs led all Bengals’ WRs last week. Boyd’s offensive involvement should remain high as the slot WR against an Atlanta defense missing both starting safeties and its Mike LB.

Sterling Shepard (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Shepard’s upcoming salary ranks him 43rd/41st on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Shepard posted a 6-80-1 line on 7 targets at Houston last week. Shepard’s fantasy points of 20/17 ranked him 15th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Shepard’s price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Shepard’s targets/catches/yards ranked him 2nd on the team behind Odell Beckham Jr.

The betting lines with the Saints has the game total at 50 points with the Giants as +3.5 point home dogs. The Giants’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Saints are currently at 26.75 points.

The Saints defense ranks last in fantasy points allowed to WRs and last in DVOA against the pass. The Falcons’ WRs combined for a 17-285-4 line on 22 targets against the Saints last week.

TE Evan Engram (MCL sprain) will miss a few weeks, leaving a greater volume opportunity for Shepard, who runs mostly out of the slot anyways. Saints slot CB Patrick Robinson (broken ankle) has been placed on IR. Shepard should see a good deal of backup CB P.J. Williams. With an implied negative script and shootout potential, Shepard is a cheap option with a great matchup, and at worst is a top three passing option in this Giant offense.

Tight End

Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Goedert’s upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Goedert posted a 7-73-1 line on 7 targets against the Colts last week. Goedert’s stat line ranked him 1st on the team and his 7 targets ranked 2nd, behind Zach Ertz.

Goedert’s fantasy points of 20.3/16.8 ranked him 3rd/2nd on DK/FD, respectively, for the position. Goedert’s price per point efficiency ranked him2nd/1st on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting lines with the Titans has the game total at 41.5 points with the Eagles as -4 point road favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Titans are currently at 18.75.

The Titans’ defense ranks 1st in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 3rd in DVOA against TEs. Austin Seferian-Jenkins posted a 3-18-0 line on 5 targets against the Titans last week. The Titans’ defense has not yet been challenged at the TE position as they have only faced Miami, Houston, and Jacksonville thus far this season. They will most certainly be tested this week.

In Carson Wentz’ vaunted return last week, the TEs were his primary targets against the Colts. Of his 37 pass attempts, 21 of them were targeted towards TEs at a 56.7% market share. Goedert’s snap rate last week of 67% ranked him 3rd on the team behind Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor. The Eagles ran 13 personnel on 40% of their snaps last week. If this trend in snaps and volume were to continue, the 2nd round rookie could be the new Trey Burton.

Update:
WR Alshon Jeffery (shoulder) practiced in full on Wednesday and has been medically cleared for contact.

Eric Ebron (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Ebron’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Ebron posted a 5-33-0 line on 11 targets at Philadelphia last week. Ebron’s fantasy points of 8.3/5.8 ranked him 21st/25th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.

The betting lines with the Texans has the game total at 47 points with the Colts as -1.5 point home favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Texans are currently at 22.75.

The Texans’ defense ranks 25th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and last in DVOA against TEs. Giants’ TEs combined for a 4-58-1 line on 4 targets against the Texans last week.

Ebron’s 11 week 3 targets led all TEs for the week and his 6 red zone targets on the season ranks him tied for 1st with Jared Cook. His 20 targets on the season ranks him 2nd on the team (behind TY Hilton) and 4th (tied) in the league for TEs. The volume is there and should remain as such (as long as Jack Doyle remains out) due to Andrew Luck’s shoulder, or lack thereof. Luck’s avg. intended air yards of 5.5 ranks as the second lowest in the league, above only Marcus Mariota. Unfortunately, Luck has turned into a Checkdown Charlie, which will keep Ebron as a weekly play.

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