Week 2 was a bloodbath with injuries galore, survivor pools being decimated, and a lot weirdness all around. It’s time to wash off the blood of week 2, and lock and load for week 3.
Quarterback:
Carr dropped a 30/46 for 351 yards, 3:1 TD-INT line against the Ravens. Carr was the 4th highest fantasy scoring QB on DraftKings and 5th highest on FanDuel. His salary cost per point ranked him in the top 2 for both sites.
Carr comes into Cleveland this week after playing his first full game of the season, where Mariota dropped them a line of 21/37, 257, 2-0 a week ago. Mariota’s 7 sacks and 2 lost fumbles prevented him from a bigger stat line, but this stat line may possibly be Carr’s floor. Carr’s weapons are better than Tennessee’s and 7 sacks with 2 lost fumbles are unlikely.
Vegas has Cleveland currently at -3.5 favorites with a total at 42. Cleveland’s Defense vs. Position (DvP) is ranked 10th this season. Carr had both his starting WRs over 100 yards. Instead of the shying away from CB Jimmy Smith, it was encouraging to see the young Raiders attack, and did so successfully.
Carr’s salary price ranks him 26th/28th on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively, which would make him a potentially solid play this weekend.
Taylor put up a 23/30, 242, 3:3 line adding 43 rush yards and 1 rushing TD against New England. His 28.98 fantasy points ranked him 2nd/5th on FanDuel and DraftKings respectively. His salary cost per point ranked him in the top 3 on both sites.
In Jacksonville’s win over Miami last week, Bortles scored 21.62 fantasy points (12th for QBs), and Taylor’s ceiling would appear to be higher. Buffalo comes into Miami as +3 point underdogs with a game total at 43.5 with Miami currently ranked 11th in DvP.
Taylor’s salary price ranks him 21st/22nd on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Taylor has been putting up respectable performances and that will probably continue in Miami.
Mariota put up a 21/37, 257, 2:0 line in Cleveland. He also took 7 sacks and lost 2 fumbles. His fantasy scores of 18.18 and 16.18 ranked 21st/22nd on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. His scores put him in the bottom third, but a bounce back could potentially be coming up at Indianapolis, where Ryan Fitzpatrick put up 17.36 points.
The big “if” here is if CB Vontae Davis (concussion) is not cleared in time. Injuries are hampering CBs Greg Toler and Darius Butler, leaving the Colts’ secondary very thin. Check injury reports by week’s end for updates on the Colts’ secondary, but this could potentially line up nicely for Mariota.
The Colts are -4.5 favorites with a game total at 47.5 currently ranked 15th in DvP. If game flow does have Tennessee playing from behind, the attempts could be there.
Running Back:
Starks is a potential injury replacement play for Eddie Lacy (ankle) that only future news will dictate if viable or not. Unfortunately, this game is the Monday Nighter, so unless Lacy is ruled out beforehand, he makes for a very risky play.
Lewis’ week 2 line against Buffalo was a busy 7-40-1, with 1 fumble lost, and 6-98 on 9 targets. Lewis was the 3rd highest scoring fantasy back last week with the 2nd lowest cost per point scored on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
New England is a -13.5 point home favorite with a total at 47.5. The game script should not call for Brady throwing it near 60 times like last week’s personal grudge match ended up being, but as the case with all of New England’s backfield, no one knows. This could easily turn into a Blount ground and pound session.
Lewis’ cost ranks differently however, as he’s ranked 20th on FanDuel vs. 40th on DraftKings, which makes him a better value on DK.
Jones’ impressive stat line against St. Louis was 19-123-2, 1 fumble lost, with a 6.5 avg. He also added a 3-23 on 3 targets. Jones greatly out-performed Alfred Morris, despite fielding 3 less snaps (31) to Morris’ (34). Jones’ fantasy scoring ranked him in the top two on both DK and FD and ranked him 1st in price per point on both sites.
Jones is the backup to Morris however, and this backfield could turn out to be a true RBBC situation shortly. Washington faces the Giants as +4 dogs with a game total at 43.5 with the Giants ranked 24th in DvP. Cousins had an impressive game-manager outing against St. Louis, with Washington’s backfield toting 37 total carries vs. Cousins’ 27 attempts. This is a ratio Washington would like to sustain.
Depending on the game script in New York, there could be enough carries for both backs, assuming Washington isn’t getting blown out. With Jones’ salary ranked 32nd on FanDuel and 40th on DraftKings, there is potential here as a viable play.
Wide Receiver:
Crabtree dropped a line of 9-111-1 on 16 targets (team/career highs) against Baltimore. Crabtree’s points of 29.1/21.6 ranked him 8th/10th on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, for the position. He also ranked 4th in price per point efficiency for both sites.
The Browns are -3.5 point favorites with a game total at 42 points, and currently ranked 14th in DvP. With CB Joe Haden likely on Amari Cooper, Crabtree’s game scenario could play out similar to last week, as Carr’s trend so far this year is to favor his WRs.
Crabtree’s salary price ranks him 44th on DraftKings and 37th on FanDuel, making for a reasonably priced play with upside.
Matthews put up a line of 6-115 on 7 targets (2nd on team) against Jacksonville. Matthews’ points of 20.5/14.5 rank him 21st/27th on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively, for the position. His DraftKings price per point efficiency ranked him 5th for the position.
The Dolphins are -3 point favorites with a game total at 44, with Buffalo currently ranked 27th in DvP. Through two weeks, Matthews is turning out to be Tannehill’s #2 option, behind Jarvis Landry. If TE Jordan Cameron (groin) were to miss time this week, Matthews may help fill this stat void. With FanDuel prices ranking him 43rd and DraftKings ranking him 55th, the potential return vs. cost could make him a nice play.
Moncrief’s line of 7-122-1 on 8 targets against the Jets led the team in all categories. His FD points of 21.7 ranked 9th and 28.2 on DK ranked 11th, with his cost per point landing him in the top 10 for both.
The Colts are favored by -3 with a game total at 44 with the Titans ranking 10th in DvP. It is clear that Moncrief is Luck’s #2 option, and with an upcoming clash with division rival Tennessee, look for Luck to bounce-back for their much needed first win
Moncrief’s salary ranks him 34th on FD and 42nd on DK, making him a potential play for the cost.
Tight End:
Fasano could be a solid injury-replacement play, if Delanie Walker (wrist) misses time this week. Check the injury status of Walker later in the week to determine if Fasano can be a viable play.
Gilmore put up a 5-88-2 on 6 targets against Oakland placing him in the top 2 on both DraftKings and FanDuel for TE scoring and 1st for both in price per point efficiency.
The Ravens are -2.5 favorites with a game total at 44.5, with Cincinnati ranked 4th in DvP. Cinncinnati’s high DvP ranking is largely due to not being tested yet through two weeks. Gilmore is a top 3 target option for Flacco thus far and his usage is likely to remain the same.
With a salary ranking him 11th/15th on FD/DK for TEs, respectively, he may be a solid play at home against their division rival.
Reed’s line against St. Louis went for 6-82 on 6 targets. The yards were a team high and the target total tied for 2nd. His DK points of 14.2 and FD points of 11.2 ranked him 6th/8th, respectively, for all tight ends. Reed’s cost per point efficiency ranked him 7th/9th.
New York is favored by -3.5 with a game total of 44. The Giants rank 30th in DvP. The Giants linebackers are a weak spot, something Reed should be able to exploit between the hashes.
Reed’s salary ranks him 11th on DK and 17th on FD, so there is a potential opportunity that he can outperform his cost.
Kicker:
Tampa Bay goes to Houston as +6.5 dogs with a game total at 40.5. Brindza went 4/5 with a 55 yard and 2 XPs for 16 points and comes with a bottom-barrel price. Houston is ranked 21st in DvP and this may be Tampa Bay’s best shot at scoring points.
Since a kicker may be Tampa Bay’s best scoring option, consider fading Buccaneer offensive skill players altogether, especially Doug Martin. Mike Evans may have a fliers shot, if feeling lucky.
Defense:
New England hosts Jacksonville as -13.5 favorites, the 2nd largest on the board, with a game total at 47.5. After last week’s survivor killer round, this should be a safe play if you want to pay up.
The Jets defense did a solid job against Andrew Luck and the Colts last week. The Jets host Philadelphia this week as -2.5 favorites with a game total at 46 and rank 2nd in fantasy points. It would be easy to imagine the Jets holding defensive team meetings in Philadelphia’s backfield on a regular basis and the matchup for that D-Line couldn’t get any better.
Antonio Cromartie was questionable last week with a hyper-extended knee, but showed well in the win against the Colts. He should be a go this weekend. Consider fading all Philadelphia offensive skill players.
The Jets’ salaries rank them 8th on DK and 12th on FD with the potential for total destruction here lurking.
Denver is the current leader in defensive fantasy points and have a great matchup lined up in Detroit. Denver comes in at -3 point favorites with a game total at 44.5.
Calvin Johnson and Golden Tate have tough matchups against CBs Chris Harris and Aqib Talib, and if Stafford was hurting last week, more of it is coming as Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware should tee-off. Consider fading all Detroit offensive skill players as none of them offer any upside.
Check out the Week 3 schedule with spreads/totals.
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