NFL Week 17: January 1, 2017
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 17.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Russell Wilson (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6800, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Wilson’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on FD. Wilson put up a line of 29/45, 350, 4:0 and 7-28-0 on the ground against Arizona last week. Wilson’s fantasy points of 37.6/33.6 ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD. Wilson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/1st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the 49ers currently has the game total at 43 points, with the Seahawks as -9.5 point road favorites.
San Francisco’s defense ranks 12th in pass yards allowed (237.3), last in rush yards allowed (171.1), and last in points allowed (30.3) per game. San Francisco’s defense ranks 18th (tied) in takeaways with 20 and 18th (tied) in sacks with 31. San Francisco’s defense also ranks 22nd against QBs (17.45), last against RBs (28.18), 27th against WRs (25.69), and 15th against TEs (6.85) in fantasy points allowed.
Seattle’s offense ranks 12th in passing yards gained (255.7), 22nd (tied) in rushing yards gained (100.3), and 20th in points scored (21.9). Seattle also ranks 13th (tied) in least giveaways with 18 and 5th (tied) in most sacks allowed (40).
Seattle is still vying for that first round bye but need this win and for Atlanta not to. Wilson is in a spot where he will be playing with a great matchup.
Drew Brees (NO) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7600, FanDuel (FD) – 8200. Brees’ upcoming salary ranks him 2nd/6th on DK/FD, respectively. Brees put up a line of 23/34, 299, 1:0 against Tampa Bay last week. Brees’ fantasy points of 16.06 ranked him 20th/18th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Falcons currently has the game total at 56 points (highest on the board), with the Saints as +6.5 point road dogs.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (261.7), 16th in rush yards allowed (102.7), and 25th in points allowed (24.9) per game. Atlanta’s defense ranks 14th (tied) in takeaways with 21 and 17th in sacks with 32. Atlanta’s defense also ranks 31st against QBs (19.04), 22nd against RBs (19.52), 20th against WRs (26.63), and 28th against TEs (9.71) in fantasy points allowed.
New Orleans’ offense ranks 1st in passing yards gained (315.5), 18th in rushing yards gained (107.3), and 2nd in points scored (29.1). New Orleans also ranks 11th (tied) in most giveaways with 23 and 25th in most sacks allowed (25).
Atlanta is vying for a first-round bye but the Saints shouldn’t lie down. Brees gets a positive implied game script, indoors, and a great matchup in a potential shootout against their division rivals.
RB
Alfred Blue (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Blue’s upcoming salary ranks him 38th/32th on DK/FD, respectively. Blue put up a line of 21-73-1 and 4-17-0 on 4 targets against Cincinnati last week. Blue’s fantasy points of 19/17 ranked him 12th/ on both DK/FD. Blue’s price per point efficiency ranked him 11th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Titans currently has the game total at 40 points, with the Texans as +3 point road dogs.
The Titans’ defense ranks 31st in pass yards allowed (270.9), 5th in rush yards allowed (91.1), and 19th (tied) in points allowed (24.1) per game. The Titans’ defense ranks 23rd (tied) in takeaways with 17 and 10th in sacks with 36. The Titans’ defense also ranks 5th against running backs (14.77) in fantasy points allowed.
Houston’s offense ranks 29th in passing yards gained (195.5), 6th in rushing yards gained (120.9), and 29th in points scored (17.5).
Houston is locked in as the #4 seed and Lamar Miller (ankle), who sat out last week, may not be a factor in this meaningless game. Alfred Blue should lead the way in the backfield as Houston readies for the playoffs against a Tennessee team that has been eliminated.
Fitzgerald Toussaint (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Toussaint’s upcoming salary ranks him 38th/66th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Steelers as -6 point home favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 21st in pass yards allowed (250.2), 31st in rush yards allowed (147.6), and 31st in points allowed (28.3) per game. Cleveland’s defense ranks 29th in takeaways with 12 and last in sacks with 22. Cleveland’s defense also ranks 31st against running backs (23.58) in fantasy points allowed.
The Steelers are locked in as the #3 seed and Ben, Bell, and Brown have already been ruled out by Coach Tomlin. DeAngelo Williams’ (knee) projected playing status and usage is currently unknown, but it would make a lot of sense that his value is too great to risk in a meaningless game (similar to the Tony Romo situation in Dallas). This leaves Toussaint as the potential workhorse taking handoffs from Landry Jones.
Cleveland basically won their Super Bowl of the season with their first win last week and still currently holds the #1 pick in next year’s draft. Toussaint gets the second best matchup possible for RBs and comes at a bottom-barreled price tag which could return a nice value, if Williams sees little action.
WR
Cam Meredith (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Meredith’s upcoming salary ranks him 32nd/39th on DK/FD, respectively. Meredith put up a line of 9-135-1 on 12 targets (all team highs) against Washington last week. Meredith’s fantasy points of 31.5/24 ranked him 4th/6th on DK/FD, respectively. Meredith’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Vikings currently has the game total at 41 points, with the Bears as +5 point road dogs.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 4th in pass yards allowed (212.5), 15th in rush yards allowed (101.9), and 8th in points allowed (19.8) per game. Minnesota’s defense also ranks 4th against WRs (19.42) in fantasy points allowed.
Meredith has averaged 24.3 fantasy points (DK scoring) over the past three games and is Matt Barkley’s clear go to receiving option. Terence Newman and Xavier Rhodes can argue with Coach Zimmer over who covers Alshon Jeffery, but Meredith should largely avoid both out of the slot.
Steve Smith Sr. (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Smith’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th on both DK/FD. Smith put up a line of 7-79-1 on 7 targets (2nd on team) at Pittsburgh last week. Smith’s fantasy points of 22.9/19.4 ranked him 12th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Smith’s price per point efficiency ranked him 11th on both DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Bengals currently has the game total at 41.5 points, with the Ravens as +2 point road dogs.
Cincinnati’s defense ranks 11th in pass yards allowed (235.8), 22nd in rush yards allowed (116), and 11th in points allowed (20.3) per game. Cincinnati’s defense also ranks 15th against QBs (16.44), 2nd against WRs (18.59), 19th against RBs (18.32), and 29th against TEs (9.72) in fantasy points allowed.
Baltimore’s offense ranks 11th in passing yards gained (255.8), 26th in rushing yards gained (92.7), and 19th in points scored (22.2).
Smith announced that this will be his final game. The 5’9”, 185 lb. future Hall of Fame receiver is one of the toughest football players to ever take the field. Both teams are eliminated from the playoffs, and with nothing else to play for, it would not be surprising if Joe Flacco showcased Smith and peppered him with targets in his last game.
TE
Jesse James (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. James’ upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/35th on DK/FD, respectively. James put up a line of 4-49-0 on 5 targets with an 84% snap ratio last week against Baltimore.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Steelers as -6 point home favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 21st in pass yards allowed (250.2), 31st in rush yards allowed (147.6), and 31st in points allowed (28.3) per game. Cleveland’s defense also ranks last against TEs (11.48) in fantasy points allowed and DVOA.
Ladarius Green (concussion) did put up a limited practice on Wednesday, but it would seem foolish to play a legitimate playoff weapon with a history of concussions in a meaningless game. Green missed last week’s game. If Green misses time, James gets the ideal matchup, albeit with Landry Jones under center.
Eric Ebron (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Ebron’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Ebron put up a line of 8-93-0 on 12 targets (all team highs) at Dallas last week. Ebron’s fantasy points of 17.3/13.3 ranked him 4th on both DK/FD. Ebron’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th on both DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 49.5 points (2nd highest on the board), with the Lions as +3 point home dogs.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 29th in pass yards allowed (265.1), 9th in rush yards allowed (95.9), and 22nd (tied) in points allowed (24.3) per game. Green Bay’s defense also ranks 18th against TEs (7.31) in fantasy points allowed.
This game matters as the winner takes the NFC North division so everyone will be full go (‘nuff said).
Check out the Week 17 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 17 schedule with current spreads/totals here.
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