NFL Week 17: January 1, 2017
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 17.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Oakland Raiders – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. Oakland’s salary ranks them 17th on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Broncos at 40.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Raiders as +2.5 point road dogs.
Oakland’s defense ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed (115.9), 25th in passing yards allowed (260.9), and 19th (tied) in points scored (24.1). Oakland ranks 2nd in takeaways with 29 and 29th (tied) in sacks with 25. Oakland also ranks 25th against QBs (17.65), 23rd against RBs (19.25), 17th against WRs (23.57), and 25th against TEs (8.86) in fantasy points allowed. Oakland recorded three turnovers against Indianapolis last week.
Denver’s offense ranks 28th in rush yards gained (89.4), 20th in pass yards gained (231.9), and 22nd in points scored (20.6). Denver also ranks 10th worst in giveaways with 24, allows the 3rd most sacks with 40, and gives up the 5th most fantasy points to defenses. Kansas City logged three turnovers and held Denver to 10 points last week when the Broncos were still alive.
With Denver’s season over, there is a plausible scenario where the rookie QB Paxton Lynch may see action. Coach Kubiak was noncommittal on the subject on Monday. In three appearances this season, Lynch averaged 3 sacks and 151.7 yards per game. He has two TDs and one interception to go along with a 79.2 passer rating. The Raiders are fighting for the division title and a first-round bye in a matchup that should be a defensive game.
Update – Trevor Siemian is projected to start and Lynch is also expected to see snaps as well.
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. Arizona’s salary ranks them 12th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the 49ers at 41 points with the Cardinals as -6 point road favorites.
Arizona’s defense ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed (97.7), 5th in passing yards allowed (219.6), and 18th in points scored (23.7). Arizona ranks 6th (tied) in takeaways with 25 and 2nd in sacks with 41. Arizona also ranks 17th against QBs (16.6), 5th against RBs (14.89), 28th against WRs (25.81), and 1st against TEs (3.56) in fantasy points allowed. Arizona recorded six sacks, a fumble recovery, and a blocked kick at Seattle last week.
The Rams’ offense ranks 31st in rush yards gained (80.0), 30th in pass yards gained (192.0), and last in points scored (14.5). The Rams also rank 5th (tied) in most giveaways with 26, allows the 22nd most sacks (tied) with 30, and gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to defenses. San Francisco logged four sacks and two picks in Los Angeles last week.
Arizona gets their turn against the Rams and comes at a relative bargain price in a self-explanatory matchup.
New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3200, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. New England’s salary ranks them 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Dolphins at 44.5 points with the Patriots as -9.5 point (widest spread on the board) road favorites.
New England’s defense ranks 3rd in rushing yards allowed (89.5), 14th in passing yards allowed (240.1), and 1st in points scored (15.7). New England ranks 14th (tied) in takeaways with 21 and 12th (tied) in sacks with 34. New England also ranks 13th against QBs (15.76), 3rd against RBs (14.77), 7th against WRs (20.59), and 10th against TEs (6.15) in fantasy points allowed. New England recorded two sacks, four turnovers, and held the Jets to 3 points last week.
Miami’s offense ranks 9th in rush yards gained (116.6), 26th in pass yards gained (219.7), and 16th in points scored (23.3). Miami also ranks 17th (tied) in giveaways with 21 and gives up the 21st most sacks (tied) with 30.
QB Matt Moore will be making his third start for the injured Ryan Tannehill (knee). New England is still vying for home-field throughout the playoffs so they will be all systems go against a team where they recorded four turnovers in their previous meeting.
Kansas City Chiefs – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Kansas City’s salary ranks them 7th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Chargers at 45 points with the Chiefs as -5.5 point road favorites.
Kansas City’s defense ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed (120.6), 8th in passing yards allowed (245.9), and 5th in points scored (18.9). Kansas City ranks 1st in takeaways with 31 and 27th in sacks with 28. Kansas City also ranks 8th against QBs (15.55), 18th against RBs (18.3), 19th against WRs (23.61), and 3rd against TEs (4.65) in fantasy points allowed.
San Diego’s offense ranks 27th in rush yards gained (92.1), 6th in pass yards gained (261.9), and 10th in points scored (25.5). San Diego also ranks 2nd worst in giveaways with 33, allows the 11th most sacks (tied) with 36, and gives up the 4th most fantasy points to defenses.
QB Matt Moore will be making his second start for the injured Ryan Tannehill (knee). Moore connected for four TDs on 18 pass attempts against a Jets team that has long packed it in, but this production won’t be sustainable. Buffalo will be looking to play spoiler in this second division game and won’t quit on Rex.
Kansas City has scored double-digit fantasy points in 9 of the past 11 games and is vying for the division title and a first-round bye while San Diego has been eliminated.
Check out the Week 17 DFS value player picks here.
Check out the Week 17 schedule with current betting lines here.
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