NFL Week 16 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 16 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 16: December 22 – 24, 2018

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 16.

Salary ranks are based on the main-slate (Sunday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Dak Prescott (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 7300. Prescott’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Prescott posted a 24/39, 206, 0:1 passing line against the Colts last week. Prescott’s 7.24 fantasy points is a season low.

The betting line with the Bucs (5-9) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Cowboys (8-6) as -7 point home favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 26.75 points and the Bucs are currently at 19.75 points.

The Bucs’ defense ranks 29th against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 29th in DVOA against the pass. The Bucs rank 27th in pass yards allowed with 258.5/gm and 30th in points allowed with 28.8/gm. These respective numbers spike to 277/gm and 35.5/gm on the road. The Bucs’ defense also scores 5.5 less fantasy points on the road. Lamar Jackson posted a 14/23, 131, 1:0 passing line and 18-95-0 on the ground with a lost fumble against the Bucs last week, good for 17.74 DK points.

Dak averages 7.5 more fantasy points at home and performs better against man-cover schemes. Since the firing of DC Mike Smith, replacement DC Mark Duffner primarily runs man-cover schemes. There is a good chance this scenario remains the case, as scheming for an opponent’s weakness would just make too much sense. Dak gets a prime matchup against one of the most targetable defenses for all skill position groups in a great bounce-back spot.

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Jackson’s upcoming salary ranks him 9th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Mayfield posted an 18/31, 188, 2:1 passing line and 4-6-0 with a lost fumble on the ground at Denver last week. Mayfield’s fantasy points of 14.12/13.12 ranked him 18th/17th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bengals (6-8) lists the game total at 44.5 points with the Browns (6-7-1) as -7.5 point home favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 26 points and the Bengals are currently at 18.5 points.

The Bengals’ defense gives up the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs, also ranking 26th in DVOA against the pass. The Bengals rank 29th in pass yards allowed with 270.6/gm, and the 31st in points allowed with 29.5/gm. Derek Carr posted a 21/38, 263, 1:0 passing line with a lost fumble at Cincy last week.

Baker had his best game of the season, posting 25.92 DK points at Cincy in week 12. The loser takes the divisional cellar, Baker hates Hue Jackson, and the matchup is solid, so there’s a little something to like here.

Running Back

Elijah McGuire (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. McGuire’s upcoming salary ranks him 24th/27th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. McGuire posted an 18-42-1 rush line and 3-29-0 on 4 targets with a lost fumble with 56 snaps (75%) against the Texans last week. McGuire’s fantasy points of 15.1/12.6 ranked him 22nd/22nd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Packers (5-8-1) has the game total at 44 points with this game in East Rutherford as a pick ‘em. Each team’s implied team total currently stands at 22 points. The open line had the Jets (4-10) as +3 point home dogs.

The Packers’ defense ranks 13th against RBs in fantasy points allowed, 22nd in rush yards allowed, 25th in DVOA against the run, and 28th in DVOA against RBs in the pass. The Packers’ defense scores 9.6 less fantasy points per game on the road. Chicago RBs combined for a 26-81-1 rush line and 5-55-1 on 8 targets against the Pack last week.

McGuire, as the new Jets’ RB1, has averaged over 20 touches the past two games as a three-down back. McGuire averaged 16.2 DK points during this span in tougher matchups vs. Houston and Buffalo. The Packers have been eliminated from the playoffs and are in a let-down spot on the road. Having placed the last of the Packs’ original starting D-lineman on IR (NT Kenny Clark), the matchup for McGuire is a good one and regardless of the game flow, he shouldn’t be scripted out.

Marlon Mack (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Mack’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Mack posted a 27-139-2 rush line, 1-10-0 on 1 target and a lost fumble, with 44 snaps (61%) against the Cowboys last week. Mack’s fantasy points of 29.9/25.4 ranked him 6th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Mack’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Giants (5-9) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Colts (8-6) as -9 point home favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 27.75 points and the Giants are currently at 18.75 points.

The Giants’ defense ranks 26th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 19th in DVOA against the run. The Giants also rank 28th in rush yards allowed with 128.4/gm and 22nd (tied) in points allowed with 24.9/gm. The Colts’ O-line ranks 6th in adjusted line yards while the Giants’ D-line ranks 18th. Tennessee RBs combined for a dominating 40-205-2 rush line and 4-9-0 on 4 targets at New Jersey last week.

Mack crushed it last week against a much tougher run defense (Cowboys rank 5th in DVOA against the run). As Mack doesn’t have a role in the pass game, he is positive script-dependent, but that is what we have here as a big home favorite. Mack’s 28 touches (season high) last week were more than Andrew Luck’s 27 pass attempts (season low). It would not be surprising to see this trend continue this week in a solid matchup for Mack. The Colts are still in the hunt for a wildcard spot.

Wide Receiver

Robby Anderson (NYJ) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Anderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 34th/25th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Anderson posted a 7-96-1 receiving line on 11 targets with 71 snaps (95%) against the Texans last week. Anderson’s fantasy points of 22.6/19.1 ranked him 8th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Anderson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/6th on DK/FD, respectively.

The Packers’ defense ranks 29th against WRs in fantasy points allowed and 24th in DVOA against the pass. The Bears’ WRs combined for a 7-105-0 line on 11 targets against the Pack last week.

Anderson’s receiving line led the team in all categories last week. Anderson’s matchup is soft and he would make for a cheap stacking tandem with Sam Darnold this week.

Demaryius Thomas (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 30th/36th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Thomas posted a 6-59-0 receiving line on 8 targets, with 47 snaps (89%) against the Broncos last week. Thomas’ fantasy points of 11.9/8.9 ranked him 26th/31st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Eagles (7-7) the lists the game total at 45.5 points with the Texans (10-4) as +2 point road dogs. The Texans’ implied team total is currently at 21.75 points and the Eagles are currently at 23.75 points.

The Eagles’ defense ranks 31st against WRs in fantasy points allowed and 20th in DVOA against the pass. The Rams’ WRs combined for an 18-203-0 receiving line on 28 targets against the Eagles last week.

Thomas gets a great matchup, especially where the Eagles rank 27th in DVOA vs. WR2s and 16th vs. WR1s. Both teams are weaker against the pass than the run, so there might be a chance for enough aerial action to go around outside of DeAndre Hopkins.

Tight End

Blake Jarwin (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. Jarwin’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Jarwin posted a 4-45-0 line on 7 targets with 43 snaps (62%) at Indy last week. Jarwin’s fantasy points of 8.5/6.5 ranked him 10th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Jarwin’s price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bucs (5-9) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Cowboys (8-6) as -7 point home favorites. The Cowboys’ implied team total is currently at 26.75 points and the Bucs are currently at 19.75 points.

The Bucs’ defense ranks 23rd against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 30th in DVOA against TEs. Baltimore TEs combined for a 6-57-0 line on 9 targets against the Bucs last week.

Jarwin has now received 7 targets in consecutive weeks, averaging over 50 yards during this span. That isn’t too bad considering his cheap price and the general wasteland that is the TE position.

Evan Engram (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Engram’s upcoming salary ranks him 5th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Engram posted an 8-75-0 line on 12 targets with 45 snaps (69%) against the Titans last week. Engram’s fantasy points of 15.5/11.5 ranked him 1st/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Engram’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Colts (8-6) has the game total at 46.5 points with the Giants (5-9) as +9 point road dogs. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 27.75 points and the Giants are currently at 18.75 points.

The Colts’ defense ranks 25th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 23rd in DVOA against TEs. Dallas TEs combined for a 7-68-0 line on 11 targets at Indy last week.

Engram’s receiving line led the team in all categories last week. Seemingly healthy (hamstring) the past two weeks, Engram has averaged 8.5 targets and 76 yards during this span, but this directly coincides with Odell Beckham missing these past two games. Beckham’s status for this week is currently unknown but if Odell misses again, that puts Engram back in play.

Update:
WRs Odell and Russell Shephard have been ruled out. Russell had been manning the slot which should move Sterling Shephard back to the slot from the perimeter. The game total has increased to 48 points with the Giants now as +9.5 dogs.

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