NFL Week 16: December 22nd – 26th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 16.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Matt Barkley (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Barkley’s upcoming salary ranks him 26th/27th on DK/FD, respectively. Barkley put up a line of 30/43, 362, 2:3 and a lost fumble against Green Bay last week. Barkley’s fantasy points of 20.36/17.36 ranked him 5th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Barkley’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/4th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Redskins currently has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Bears as +3 point home dogs.
Washington’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (260.1), 22nd in rush yards allowed (115.4), and 24th in points allowed (24.5) per game. Washington’s defense ranks 22nd (tied) in takeaways with 16 and 5th (tied) in sacks with 36. Washington’s defense also ranks 27th against QBs (17.68), 29th against RBs (21.06), 11th against WRs (22.07), and 26th against TEs (8.96) in fantasy points allowed. Cam Newton went 21/37, 300, 2:0 for a 101.2 passer rating at Washington last week.
Chicago’s offense ranks 14th in passing yards gained (250.8), 22nd in rushing yards gained (100.9), and 29th in points scored (17.7). Chicago also ranks 11th (tied) in most giveaways and 23rd in most sacks allowed (25).
Barkley has averaged 16.9 fantasy points (DK scoring) in his past four games since taking over under center and has played surprisingly well. Barkley gets a positive implied game script and matchup against a Washington unit that has allowed over 300 yards passing to opposing QBs in five of their last six games. As long as Barkley doesn’t test Josh Norman, the rest of the coverage unit is weak and he should potentially return a decent value.
Russell Wilson (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Wilson’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Wilson put up a line of 19/26, 229, 3:1 and 6-12-0 on the ground against Los Angeles last week. Wilson’s fantasy points of 21.36 ranked him 6th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively. Wilson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Cardinals currently has the game total at 43 points, with the Seahawks as -8.5 point home favorites.
Arizona’s defense ranks 5th in pass yards allowed (212.9), 12th in rush yards allowed (99.1), and 19th in points allowed (23.2) per game. Arizona’s defense ranks 8th in takeaways with 24 and 7th (tied) in sacks with 35. Arizona’s defense also ranks 9th against QBs (15.38), 9th against RBs (15.41), 21st against WRs (24.27), and 1st against TEs (3.02) in fantasy points allowed. Drew Brees went 37/48, 389, 4:0 for a 127.9 passer rating at Arizona last week.
Seattle’s offense ranks 13th in passing yards gained (251.6), 20th in rushing yards gained (101.9), and 22nd in points scored (21.3). Seattle also ranks 12th (tied) in least giveaways with 17 and 10th (tied) in most sacks allowed (34).
Wilson’s home splits jump up as he has averaged 22.5 fantasy points over his last four home games. Arizona, with nothing to play for and fading defensively, has given up an average 31 points per game over their last four road games (all losses) and 33 points per game over their past five. Seattle is vying for that first round bye, and DangeRuss at home should potentially offer a solid floor play.
Running Back
LeGarrette Blount (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Blount’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Blount put up a line of 17-31-1 at Denver last week.
The Vegas line with the Jets currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Patriots as -16.5 point (widest on the board, and perhaps the season iirc) home favorites.
The Jets’ defense ranks 21st in pass yards allowed (251.8), 14th in rush yards allowed (99.9), and 26th (tied) in points allowed (25.6) per game. The Jets’ defense ranks 29th (tied with Cleveland) in takeaways with 11 and 31st in sacks with 23. The Jets’ defense also ranks 29th against running backs (22.67) in fantasy points allowed.
New England’s offense ranks 4th in passing yards gained (272.9), 7th in rushing yards gained (117.0), and 6th in points scored (26.1).
This game could get really ugly, really quick. New England still has home field left to secure, and the Jets quit a while back. It would seem reasonable to ponder that at some point, after putting on an entertaining showing for their home crowd, that New England would remove their foot off of New York’s throat to return to the safe confines of their bench, uninjured, as they prepare for their playoff run. The NFL’s leader in rushing TDs (15), Blount should have opportunities to pad this stat further and be tasked with clock-killing duties at minimum, which New York may be more than happy to oblige.
Ty Montgomery (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD. Montgomery put up a line of 16-162-2 (all season highs) and 2-1-0 on 3 targets at Chicago last week. Montgomery’s fantasy points of 33.3/29.3 ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Vikings currently has the game total at 43 points, with the Packers as -6.5 point home favorites.
Minnesota’s defense ranks 3rd in pass yards allowed (205.6), 18th in rush yards allowed (106.3), and 6th in points allowed (18.5) per game. Minnesota also ranks 6th against RBs (14.94) in fantasy points allowed and 7th in DVOA to RBs against the pass. Frank Gore and Robert Turbin combined for a line of 33-133-2 and 6-36-0 on 6 targets last week in Minnesota.
The Packers haven’t had a running back eclipse Eddie Lacy’s 65 rushing yards since week 6. Montgomery’s implied positive game script and the overall matchup sets up well for a more balanced Green Bay attack.
Wide Receiver
Ted Ginn Jr. (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. Ginn’s upcoming salary ranks him 53rd/75th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on FD. Ginn put up a line of 4-64-1 on 8 targets (2nd on team) at Washington last week. Ginn’s fantasy points of 16.4/14.4 ranked him 20th/17th on DK/FD, respectively. Ginn’s price per point efficiency ranked him 13th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Falcons currently has the game total at 52 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Panthers as +2.5 point home dogs.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 30th in pass yards allowed (267.4), 15th in rush yards allowed (101.5), and 26th (tied) in points allowed (25.6) per game. Atlanta’s defense also last against QBs (19.58), 19th against WRs (24.09), 27th against RBs (20.21), and 29th against TEs (9.91) in fantasy points allowed.
Carolina’s offense ranks 19th in passing yards gained (235.4), 10th in rushing yards gained (111.9), and 14th in points scored (24.1).
Ginn has scored four times in the last five games and has averaged 16.3 fantasy points (DK scoring) over that span. Carolina, coming off an inspiring performance in Washington last week, will look to play spoiler to their division rivals in the Panthers final home game of the season. This game does have an implied positive game script for Ginn with shootout potential. Ginn’s snap percentage is about 50% but is involved in the offense and his splash play ability is a matchup threat where Atlanta has a particular weakness. Ginn posted single yardage plays of 30, 55, 88, and 40 in his past five games.
Cam Meredith (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. Meredith’s upcoming salary ranks him 49th/50th on DK/FD, respectively. Meredith put up a line of 9-104-0 on 13 targets (team high) against Green Bay last week. Meredith’s fantasy points of 22.4/14.9 ranked him 6th/14th on DK/FD, respectively. Meredith’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Redskins currently has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Bears as +3 point home dogs.
Washington’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (260.1) and 24th in points allowed (24.5) per game. Washington’s defense also ranks 11th against WRs (22.07).
Meredith runs mostly out of the slot and should avoid Josh Norman’s coverage. Meredith leads the Bears in targets and catches the past two games, and could lead the Bears in targets again with a solid matchup this week.
Tight End
Antonio Gates (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Gates’ upcoming salary ranks him 8th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Gates put up a line of 1-11-0 on 2 targets against Oakland last week.
Hunter Henry (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Henry’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Henry recorded a line of 3-37-1 on 4 targets. Henry’s fantasy points of 12.7/11.2 ranked him 11th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Henry’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Chargers as -6 point road favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 15th in pass yards allowed (245.1), 31st in rush yards allowed (155.7), and 31st in points allowed (29.1) per game. Cleveland’s defense also last against TEs (11.2) in fantasy points allowed and DVOA.
The San Diego tight ends get their turn against Cleveland, where Gates gets his best chance to close in on the all-time tight end TD record where he is three TDs away. What Cleveland does about this, if anything is uncertain, but Gates will be Philip Rivers first look In the red zone. Gates is ranked 3rd (tied) in red zone TDs for tight ends with 5 while Hunter Henry is 2nd in red zone TDs for tight ends with 6. Both tight ends have a good shot in the end zone with the best matchup they will see all season.
Check out the Week 16 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 16 schedule with current spreads/totals here.
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