NFL Week 15 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 15 DFS Defense Value Picks

NFL Week 15: December 13 –17, 2018

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our value DFS defense picks for week 15.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Defense

Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2200, FanDuel (FD) – 3300. The Packers’ salary ranks them 23rd/26th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Falcons (4-9) has the game total at 44 points with the Cardinals (3-10) as +8.5 point road dogs. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 17.75 points and the Falcons are currently at 26.25 points.

The Falcons rank 16th in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses on the season. The Falcons give up the 10th (tied) most sacks with 38 and the 20th (tied) most turnovers with 15. Over their past five games, the Falcons allow an average of 11.2 fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Packers’ defense logged 2 sacks, a fumble recovery, and an interception returned for a TD, scoring 13 fantasy points.

The Cardinals’ defense ranks 7th in sacks with 39 and 10th (tied) in fumble recoveries with 8. The Cardinals’ defense logged a sack, a fumble recovery, and held the Lions to 11 offensive points, good for 7 fantasy points last week.

The Cardinals have a plausible pathway to score points, as they bring pressure which is a weakness of the Falcons’ offense. The Cardinals are one of the better options at this near bottom price point.

Detroit Lions – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500, FanDuel (FD) – 4200. The Lions’ salary ranks them 15th/6th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.

The betting line with the Bills (4-9) has the game total at 38.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Lions (5-8) as +2.5 point road dogs. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Lions are currently at 18 points.

The Bills rank last in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. The Bills give up the 8th (tied) most sacks with 39 and the 2nd most turnovers with 28. The Bills’ offense also ranks 31st in yards with 292/gm and 31st in points with 15.5/gm. The Jets’ defense logged 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, a fumble recovery, and a blocked kick, scoring 11 fantasy points at Buffalo last week.

The Lions’ defense ranks 10th in sacks with 37, 12th in yards allowed with 348.7/gm and 19th in points allowed with 24.5/gm. Over their past four games, the Lions’ defense averaged 3 sacks and 1.25 turnovers. The Lions’ defense logged 3 sacks, an interception returned for a TD, and held the Cardinals to 3 points at Arizona last week.

The Lions get their turn at the Bills and provide a solid play, especially on DK this week.

New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2600, FanDuel (FD) – 3500. The Giants’ salary ranks them 11th/18th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.

The betting line with the Titans (7-6) has the game total at 43.5 points with the Giants (5-8) as -2.5 point home favorites. The Titans’ implied team total is currently at 20.5 points and the Giants are currently at 23 points.

The Titans rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. Over their past four games, the Titans allowed an average of 10.25 fantasy points to opposing defenses. The Titans give up the 3rd (tied) most sacks with 43 and rank 20th (tied) in turnovers with 15. The Titans’ offense also ranks 28th in yards with 319.1/gm and 27th in points with 19.3/gm. The Jaguars’ defense managed 1 sack, 1 interception, and a safety, when they weren’t getting trucked by Derrick Henry at Tennessee last week.

The Giants have been turning it on of late. Over their past four games (winning three), the Giants averaged 3.5 sacks, 2.5 turnovers, .75 defensive TDs, and 12.25 fantasy points per game.

The Giants’ defense gets a solid matchup as home favorites against the 6th most inconsistent offense (per Football Outsiders DVOA consistency variance rankings).

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