NFL Week 14 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 14 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 14: December 6 –10, 2018

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 14.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Josh Allen (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Allen’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/19th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Allen posted an 18/33, 231, 2:2 passing line and 9-135-0 on the ground at Miami last week. Allen’s 33.74/30.74 fantasy points ranked him 1st/2nd on DK/FD, respectively. Allen’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/1st on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Jets (3-9) lists the game total at 38.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Bills (4-8) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Jets are currently at 17.5 points.

The Jets’ defense ranks 16th against QBs in fantasy points allowed, 12th in DVOA against the pass, and 22nd in DVOA against the run. The Jets rank 26th in rush yards allowed with 128.3/gm and 16th in pass yards allowed with 248.1/gm. Marcus Mariota logged a 20/35, 282, 2:1 passing line and 4-43-0 on the ground against the Jets last week, good for a QB8 finish.

Allen’s 389 rushing yards ranks him 3rd for QBs, despite missing four games due to injury (elbow). The past two weeks since returning from the bye and a four-game absence, Allen has averaged 30.02 DK points, finishing as a top 5 QB for consecutive weeks. Allen’s red zone QB rush yards (78) ranks him 1st (tied) and his QB red zone rush TDs (4) ranks him 2nd (tied).

#BillsMafia may have something to cheer for at the Ralph, as the Jets are a run-funnel unit, and the matchup aligns well for Allen. Allen is as volatile as it gets for the position however, as he will kill it, or kill you, but his play has been much more effective of late.
Update:
ILB Darron Lee (PEDs) has been suspended for four games. Lee led the Jets in interceptions (3) and ranked third on the team in tackles (74).

Baker Mayfield (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Mayfield’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Mayfield posted a 29/43, 397, 1:3 passing line at Houston last week. Mayfield’s fantasy points of 19.88/16.88 ranked him 10th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Mayfield’s price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/12th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Panthers (6-6) lists the game total at 47 points with the Browns (4-7-1) as +1.5 point home dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 24.25 points.

The Panthers’ defense give up the 6th most fantasy points allowed to QBs and rank 28th in DVOA against the pass. The Panthers rank 22nd in passing yards allowed with 256.8/gm, and the 21st in points allowed with 25.5/gm. Jameis Winston posted a 20/30, 249, 2:0 passing line and 5-48-0 on the ground at Carolina last week, good for a QB7 finish.

Mayfield has averaged 21.83 DK points over his past four games, showing a consistent floor. He gets a QB friendly home matchup this week.

Running Back

Jaylen Samuels (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Samuels’ upcoming salary ranks him 52nd/69th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Samuels posted a 2-5-0 rush line and 3-20-1 on 3 targets with 17 snaps (25%) against the Steelers last week. Samuels’ fantasy points of 11.5/10 ranked him 29th/30th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Raiders (2-10) has the game total at 51.5 points with the Steelers (7-4-1) as -11 point road favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 31.25 points and the Raiders are currently at 20.25 points.

The Raiders’ defense ranks 22nd against RBs in fantasy points allowed, 31st in DVOA against the run, and 19th in DVOA against RBs in the pass. The Raiders also rank 31st (tied) in rush yards allowed with 153.3/gm and 31st in points allowed with 30.6/gm. The Steelers’ O-line ranks 13th in adjusted line yards while the Raiders’ D-line ranks 27th. Kansas City RBs combined for a 19-85-1 rush line and 3-12-0 on 3 targets at Oakland last week.

James Conner (ankle) has been ruled out for at least week 14. Samuels was the only other Steeler RB to take snaps last week. It’s likely that the Steelers use some sort of committee in Conner’s absence with Stevan Ridley mixing in on early downs, but Samuels should receive all the backfield passing work, as he was also used as a receiving TE in the minors. The Steelers should be able to move the ball at will as the Raiders are weak at all defensive facets, but having a cheap option, in a great matchup, on a high-powered offense, as a big favorite, checks off alot of boxes.

Justin Jackson (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Jackson’s upcoming salary ranks him 46th/78th on DK/FD, respectively. Jackson posted an 8-63-1 rush line and 1-19-0 on 1 target with 14 snaps (22%) at Pittsburgh last week. Jackson’s fantasy points of 15.2/14.7 ranked him 15th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Jackson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bengals (5-7) has the game total at 48 points with the Chargers (9-3) as -14 point home favorites. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 31 points and the Bengals are currently at 17 points.

The Bengals’ defense ranks last against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 28th in DVOA against the run. The Bengals also rank 31st (tied) in rush yards allowed with 153.3/gm and last in points allowed with 30.9/gm. The Chargers’ O-line ranks 7th in adjusted line yards while the Bengals’ D-line ranks 30th. Denver RBs combined for a jaw-dropping 32-209-2 rush line and 4-48-0 on 5 targets against the Bengals last week.

Jackson, a 7th round rookie out of Northwestern, should get a snap share/volume bump in the two-down role as his 7.9 YPC dwarfed Austin Ekeler’s 1.6 last week against Pittsburgh’s solid run defense. Jackson’s 8.1 YPC the prior week on 7 attempts is showing a positive trend. Ekeler remains the passing down back, but the implied positive script as massive home favorites against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL, could set up a clear pathway for Jackson to get unleashed.

Jeff Wilson Jr. (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Wilson’s upcoming salary ranks him 46th/36th on DK/FD, respectively. Wilson posted a 15-61-0 rush line and 8-73-0 on 9 targets with 55 snaps (72%) at Seattle last week. Wilson’s fantasy points of 20.4/15.4 ranked him 9th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Wilson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Broncos (6-6) has the game total at 44.5 points with the 49ers (2-10) as +5.5 point home dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 19.5 points and the Broncos are currently at 25 points.

The Broncos’ defense ranks 15th against RBs in fantasy points allowed, 11th in DVOA against the run, and 22nd in DVOA against RBs in the pass. The Broncos also rank 23rd in rush yards allowed with 122.1/gm and 11th in points allowed with 21.8/gm. The 49ers O-line ranks 10th in adjusted line yards while the Broncos’ D-line ranks 21st. Cincinnati RBs combined for an 18-106-0 rush line and 8-45-0 on 10 targets against the Broncos last week.

Matt Breida (ankle) has been ruled out. Wilson, a UDFA rookie out of North Texas, led the team in targets and catches last week in relief of Breida. Wilson gets a decent matchup, with a negative implied script, but is a cheap option that should get the majority of the backfield volume for the Niners.

Wide Receiver

Curtis Samuel (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Humphries’ upcoming salary ranks him 60th/37th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK. Samuel posted a 6-88-0 receiving line on a team-high 11 targets, with 58 snaps (83%) at Tampa Bay last week. Samuel’s fantasy points of 15.6/12.6 ranked him 20th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with Browns (4-7-1) the lists the game total at 47 points with the Panthers (6-6) as -1.5 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 24.25 points.

The Browns’ defense ranks 26th against WRs in fantasy points allowed and 26th in DVOA against the pass. The Browns also rank 29th in pass yards allowed with 276.3/gm and 24th in points allowed with 26.0/gm. The Texans’ WRs combined for a 16-155-0 receiving line on 23 targets against the Browns last week.

Samuels’ targets and receiving yards led the team last week. His snap share ranked him 2nd for Carolina WRs. Samuels has scored twice in the past three games. Devin Funchess (back) did not play a full complement of snaps (46%) last week and his volume this week will be difficult to predict, barring in week setbacks. Either way, Funchess or D.J. Moore should expect the shadow coverage of outstanding rookie CB Denzel Ward.
Update:
Denzel Ward (concussion) has been ruled out.

Zay Jones (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 54th/68th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Jones posted a 4-67-2 receiving line on 9 targets and 66 snaps (92%) at Miami last week. Jones’ fantasy points of 24.7/22.7 ranked him 4th/4th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Jones’ price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Jets (3-9) lists the game total at 38.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Bills (4-8) as -3.5 point home favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 21 points and the Jets are currently at 17.5 points.

The Jets’ defense ranks 27th against WRs in fantasy points allowed and 12th in DVOA against the pass. The Titans’ WRs combined for a 10-204-1 line on 20 targets against the Jets last week.

Jones’ targets, yards, TDs, and snap share led the team last week. Bust WRs Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes have been released. The Bills may want to take a look at their young WR corps behind Jones, but Jones remains the clear WR1 in this offense. Jones would make for a cheap stacking option with his QB Josh Allen.

Tight End

Ian Thomas (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 25th/24th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Thomas posted a 5-46-0 line on 5 targets with 53 snaps (76%) at Tampa Bay last week. Thomas’ fantasy points of 9.6/7.1 ranked him 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with Browns (4-7-1) the lists the game total at 47 points with the Panthers (6-6) as -1.5 point road favorites. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 24.25 points.

The Browns’ defense ranks 27th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 3rd in DVOA against TEs. Houston TEs combined for a 5-57-1 receiving line on 5 targets against the Browns last week.

Greg Olsen (foot) played 13 snaps before his season ended. Thomas is this week’s TE injury replacement cheap punt option.

Vance McDonald (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3800, FanDuel (FD) – 5500. McDonald’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. McDonald posted a 4-28-0 line on 7 targets and 44 snaps (65%) against the Chargers last week.

The betting line with the Raiders (2-10) has the game total at 51.5 points with the Steelers (7-4-1) as -11 point road favorites. The Steelers’ implied team total is currently at 31.25 points and the Raiders are currently at 20.25 points.

The Raiders’ defense ranks 31st against TEs in fantasy points allowed and dead last in DVOA against TEs. KC TEs combined for a laughable 15-207-3 receiving line on 19 targets at Oakland last week. If the Steelers so wish it for McDonald, it’s there for the taking.

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