NFL Week 13 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 13 DFS Value Player Picks

NFL Week 13: November 29 – December 3, 2018

We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 13.

Salary ranks are based on the full-slate (Thursday – Monday).

Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.

Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.

Quarterback

Kirk Cousins (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 18h/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Cousins posted a 29/38, 342, 3:0 passing line and 6-17-0 on the ground against Green Bay last week. Cousins’ 30.38/27.38 fantasy points ranked him 1st/1st on DK/FD, respectively. Cousins’ price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/3rd on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Patriots (8-3) lists the game total at 48.5 points with the Vikings (6-4-1) as +6 point road dogs. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 21.25 points and the Patriots are currently at 27.25 points.

The Patriots’ defense ranks 26th against QBs in fantasy points allowed and 19th in DVOA against the pass. Josh McCown logged a 26/45, 276, 1:1 pass line and 3-25-0 on the ground against New England last week.

With an implied negative script and a New England defense that is tougher against the run, Cousins should have to shoulder the load in a positive matchup. He has 2nd most pass attempts this season and ranks 5th in yards. Both teams rank in the top ten in most plays/gm with approximately 65.

Jameis Winston (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Winston’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Winston posted a 29/38, 312, 2:0 passing line and 7-24-0 on the ground against the 49ers last week. Winston’s fantasy points of 25.88/22.88 ranked him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Winston’s price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/6th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Panthers (6-5) lists the game total at 56.5 points (highest on the board) with the Bucs (4-7) as +3.5 point home dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 26.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 30 points.

The Panthers’ defense give up the 6th most fantasy points allowed to QBs and rank 27th in DVOA against the pass. The Panthers rank 22nd in passing yards allowed with 260.1/gm, and 20th in points allowed with 25.6/gm. Russell Wilson posted a 22/31, 339, 2:0 line at Carolina last week.

Winston averages 26 fantasy points in his two home appearances this season. This home matchup as dogs should keep Winston plenty busy in this potential shootout.

Running Back

Philip Lindsay (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Lindsay’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Lindsay posted a 14-110-1 rush line with 36 snaps (63%) against the Steelers last week. Lindsay’s fantasy points of 20/17 ranked him 12th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Bengals (5-6) has the game total at 42.5 points with the Broncos (5-6) as -4 point road favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Bengals are currently at 19.25 points.

The Bengals’ defense ranks 31st against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 28th in DVOA against the run. The Bengals also rank 31st in rush yards allowed with 147.5/gm and last in points allowed with 31.5/gm. The Bengals average one rushing TD allowed to RBs per game. The Broncos’ O-line ranks 7th in adjusted line yards while the Bengals’ D-line ranks 29th. Cleveland RBs combined for a 30-100-1 rush line and 4-67-1 on 5 targets at Cincinnati last week.

Lindsay’s 5.78 YPC ranks him 4th for RBs. With an implied positive script in the nuts draw, Lindsay has a solid pathway to go off.

Austin Ekeler (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5400, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Ekeler’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/42nd on DK/FD, respectively. Ekeler posted a 5-35-1 rush line and 10-68-0 on 11 targets with 25 snaps (36%) at Tampa Bay last week. Ekeler’s targets and catches led the team. Ekeler’s fantasy points of 26.3/21.3 ranked him 6th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Ekeler’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/4th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Steelers (7-3-1) has the game total at 51.5 points with the Chargers as +3.5 point road dogs on Sunday night. The Chargers’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Steelers are currently at 27.5 points.

The Steelers’ defense ranks 7th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 13th in DVOA against the run. The Chargers’ O-line ranks 5th in adjusted line yards while the Steelers’ D-line ranks 12th. Denver RBs combined for a 20-127-1 rush line and 1-6-0 on 2 targets against the Steelers last week.

Melvin Gordon (MCL) will miss a few weeks. Justin Jackson may sprinkle in on some early-down work, but Ekeler will be the main back here. The Chargers average over 9 targets per game to RBs, which is in Ekeler’s wheelhouse. Ekeler’s passing role will keep him script proof, especially if the implied negative script holds.

Matt Breida (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6400. Breida’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. Breida posted a 14-106-0 rush line and 3-34-0 on 4 targets with 31 snaps (48%) at Tampa Bay last week. Breida’s fantasy points of 20/15.5 ranked him 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Seahawks (6-5) has the game total at 46 points with the 49ers as +10 point road dogs. The 49ers’ implied team total is currently at 18 points and the Seahawks are currently at 18 points.

The Seahawks’ defense ranks 23rd against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 20th in DVOA against the run. The 49ers O-line ranks 10th in adjusted line yards while the Seahawks’ D-line ranks 24th. Christian McCaffrey posted a 17-125-1 rush line and 11-112-1 on 11 targets against the Seahawks last week.

Breida’s 5.81 YPC ranks him 3rd for RBs. Breida faces an implied negative game-script but gets a solid matchup this week.
Update:
WRs Marquise Goodwin (personal) and Pierre Garcon (knee) have been ruled out.

Wide Receiver

Adam Humphries (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Humphries’ upcoming salary ranks him 55th/34th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK. Humphries posted a 6-54-1 receiving line on 6 targets, with 38 snaps (52%) against San Francisco last week. Humphries’ fantasy points of 17.4/14.4 ranked him 21st/21st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.

The betting line with the Panthers (6-5) lists the game total at 56.5 points (highest on the board) with the Bucs (4-7) as +3.5 point home dogs. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 26.75 points and the Panthers are currently at 30 points.

The Panthers’ defense ranks 22nd against WRs in fantasy points allowed and 27th in DVOA against the pass. The Seahawks’ WRs combined for a 15-268-2 line on 19 targets at Carolina last week.

Humphries’ snap share (68.5%) and catches (46) both rank him 2nd on the team. Humphries has largely delivered for the Bucs with four scores over his past four games.
Update:
WR DeSean Jackson (thumb) has been ruled out for week 13. Chris Godwin also makes for a solid value option with Jackson now out for 3900/5400 on DK/FD, respectively.

Josh Reynolds (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Reynolds’ upcoming salary ranks him 37th/38th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Reynolds posted a 6-80-1 receiving line on 8 targets and 78 snaps (98%) against Kansas City in week 11. Reynolds’ fantasy points of 20/17 ranked him 15th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Reynolds’ price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with Lions (4-7) lists the game total at 55 points (3rd highest on the board) with the Rams (10-1) as -10 point road favorites. The Rams’ implied team total is currently at 32.5 points and the Lions are currently at 22.5 points.

The Lions’ defense ranks 21st against WRs in fantasy points allowed and 31st in DVOA against the pass. The Bears’ WRs combined for a 13-134-0 line on 17 targets with Chase Daniel under center against the Lions last week.

Having replaced Cooper Kupp (IR) in week 11, Reynolds’ snaps, catches and receiving yards ranked 2nd on the team behind Brandin Cooks in week 11. Reynolds averaged 14 fantasy points in the three games Cooper Kupp has missed. The Lions’ DVOA ranks against WR1s (29th), WR2s (31st), and WR3s (32nd) overall are the worst in the league. All Ram WRs are in play, but Reynolds is a cheap way to get a piece of this high-powered offense.

Tight End

Matt LaCosse (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. LaCosse’s upcoming salary ranks him 36th/31st on DK/FD, respectively for the position. LaCosse posted a 3-34-1 receiving line on 4 targets and 27 snaps (47%) against the Steelers last week. LaCosse’s fantasy points of 12.4/10.9 ranked him 10th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. LaCosse’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/5th on DK/FD, respectively.

The betting line with the Bengals (5-6) has the game total at 42 points with the Broncos (5-6) as -3.5 point road favorites. The Broncos’ implied team total is currently at 22.75 points and the Bengals are currently at 19.25 points.

The Bengals’ defense ranks 31st against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 14th in DVOA against TEs. Cleveland TEs combined for a 6-69-2 line on 6 targets at Cincinnati last week.

Jeff Heuerman (ribs/lung) will miss the remainder of the season. Heuerman’s 76.9% snap share and 12.2% target share are now available. Heuerman and LaCosse were the only Denver TEs to see snaps last week. LaCosse should have an opportunity for increased volume, especially on a week after his best game this season.

Eric Ebron (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Ebron’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/11th on DK/FD, respectively for the position. Ebron posted a 5-45-2 receiving line on 7 targets and 49 snaps (71%) against the Dolphins last week.

The betting line with the Jaguars lists the game total at 47.5 with the Colts as -4 point road favorites. The Colts’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Jaguars are currently at 21.75 points.

The Jaguars’ defense ranks 20th against TEs in fantasy points allowed and 17th in DVOA against TEs. Buffalo TE Jason Croom posted a 2-16-0 line on 3 targets against the Jags last week.

Jack Doyle (kidney) has been placed on IR. Ebron is now the unquestioned TE1 in Indianapolis. Ebron’s 11 receiving TDs are tied for first among all positions. He’ll have ample opportunity to add to that total for the rest of the season.
Update:
TE Mo Alie-Cox (calf) has been ruled out.

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