NFL Week 13: December 1st – 5th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 13.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Colin Kaepernick (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7800. Kaepernick’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/12th on DK/FD, respectively. Kaepernick put up a line of 29/46, 296, 3:1 and 10-113-0 on the ground at Miami last week. Kaepernick’s fantasy points of 37.14/34.14 ranked him first on both DK/FD. Kaepernick’s price per point efficiency ranked him first on both DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Bears currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the 49ers as +1.5 point road dogs.
Chicago’s defense ranks 12th in pass yards allowed (239.8), 18th in rush yards allowed (103.4), and 18th (tied) in points allowed (24.0) per game. The Bears’ defense ranks 29th (tied) in takeaways with 8 and 15th (tied) in sacks with 24. Chicago’s defense also ranks 15th against QBs (17.11), 6th against RBs (15.29), 29th against WRs (26.93), and 7th against TEs (5.84) in fantasy points allowed. Marcus Mariota registered a line of 15/23, 226, 2:0 and 4-46-0 on the ground at Chicago last week.
San Francisco’s offense ranks 30th in passing yards gained (198.2), 4th in rushing yards gained (126.5), and 22nd in points scored (20.7).
Kaepernick is the second highest scoring QB the past four weeks, behind only Aaron Rodgers. His 113 rushing yards ranked third highest for all players in week 12. Kaepernick had completions to nine different targets, all of whom finished with double-digit receiving yards. The dual-threat QB brings a solid floor and could potentially return a higher value than some of the higher priced QBs ahead of him this week.
Russell Wilson (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Wilson’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Wilson put up a line of 17/33, 151, 0:2 and 8-80-0 on the ground at Tampa Bay last week. Wilson’s fantasy points of 12.04 ranked him 30th on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line with the Panthers currently has the game total at 44.5 points, with the Seattle as -7 point home favorites.
Carolina’s defense ranks 29th in pass yards allowed (275.2), 2nd in rush yards allowed (79.4), and 24th in points allowed (25.5) per game. The Panthers’ defense ranks 10th (tied) in takeaways with 16 and 3rd in sacks with 32. Carolina’s defense also ranks 23rd against QBs (18.31), 4th against RBs (14.87), 24th against WRs (25.27), and 31st against TEs (11.14) in fantasy points allowed. Derek Carr went 26/38, 315, 2:1 for a 100.2 passer rating with a lost fumble against Carolina last week.
Seattle’s offense ranks 14th in passing yards gained (253.0), 27th in rushing yards gained (88.9), and 23rd in points scored (20.4). Seattle also ranks 35th (tied) in fewest giveaways with 9, 12th (tied) in most sacks allowed (26), and 6th (tied) in fewest interceptions thrown (5).
Wilson had a rough outing last week, absorbing six sacks which clearly through him off his game. He does face another tough scenario with his problematic O-line against Carolina’s pass rush, but his 80 rushing yards was a season high, and his health bar does appear full now. Wilson should keep busy in a dual-threat role throughout as this particular matchup should neutralize the implied negative game script. Wilson has cleared 25 fantasy points in three of the last four games, and is in a nice bounce-back spot at home.
Running Back
Carlos Hyde (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Hyde’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Hyde put up a line of 13-65-0 and 5-30-1 on 6 targets at Miami last week. Hyde’s fantasy points of 20.5/18 ranked him 8th on both DK/FD. Hyde’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Bears currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the 49ers as +1.5 point road dogs.
Chicago’s defense ranks 12th in pass yards allowed (239.8), 18th in rush yards allowed (103.4), and 18th (tied) in points allowed (24.0) per game. Chicago’s defense also ranks 6th against RBs (15.29) in fantasy points allowed. DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined for a line of 25-103-1 and 5-41-0 on 5 targets in Chicago last week.
San Francisco’s offense ranks 30th in passing yards gained (198.2), 4th in rushing yards gained (126.5), and 22nd in points scored (20.7).
Hyde should provide a safe floor where his game flow involvement remains steady. Hyde ranks third in the league in red zone rushing yards with 102. Currently, the weather in Chicago projects for rain and snow showers, which sets up nicely for a pound-the-rock day with Hyde.
Jordan Howard (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6900, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Howard’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th/7thnd on DK/FD, respectively. Howard put up a line of 18-84-0 and 3-43-0 on 5 targets against Tennessee last week. Howard’s fantasy points of 15.7/14.2 ranked him 11th on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the 49ers currently has the game total at 43.5 points (2nd lowest on the board), with the Bears as -1.5 point home favorites.
The Niners’ defense ranks 15th in pass yards allowed (252.6), last in rush yards allowed (171.8), and last in points allowed (31.3) per game. The Niners’ defense ranks 12th (tied) in takeaways with 15 and 29th (tied) in sacks with 19. The Niners’ defense also ranks last against running backs (27.52) in fantasy points allowed and 22nd in DVOA to opposing backs against the pass. Jay Ajayi put up a line of 18-45-1 and 1-11-0 on 2 targets against them last week.
Chicago’s offense ranks 15th in passing yards gained (251.7), 21st in rushing yards gained (98.5), and 31st in points scored (16.2).
Howard should have a busy afternoon with a great positional matchup, weather, QB play, and a positive game script all leaning in his favor.
Wide Receiver
Malcolm Mitchell (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Mitchell’s upcoming salary ranks him 70th/45th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Mitchell put up a line of 5-42-2 on 7 targets against the Jets last week. Mitchell’s fantasy points of 21.2/18.7 ranked him 16th/14th on DK and FD, respectively. Boyd’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Rams currently has the game total at 44.5 points, with the Patriots as -13.5 point (widest spread on the board) home favorites.
Los Angeles’ defense ranks 7th in pass yards allowed (227.5), 20th in rush yards allowed (112.3), and 12th (tied) in points allowed (21.5) per game. Los Angeles’ defense also ranks 12th against QBs (16.51), 19th against WRs (24.35), 19th against RBs (18.21), and 9th against TEs (6.25) in fantasy points allowed. Los Angeles gave up 29 receptions for 360 yards and 5 receiving TDs to New Orleans last week.
New England’s offense ranks 6th in passing yards gained (270.4), 7th in rushing yards gained (115.8), and 6th in points scored (26.6).
Mitchell has scored over 19 fantasy points and caught three TDs over the past two games. Rob Gronkowski’s (back) playing status is unknown as he may end up as a game-time decision. It wouldn’t be shocking if Gronk sits this one out, as it would make a lot of sense to get their star tight end healthy. In missing a game that New England clearly does not need him to play, he may be better served getting his back/lung right for the playoff run, but this is purely conjecture at this point. Martellus Bennett (ankle/shoulder) missed Wednesday’s practice as well. His playing status is also unclear but there aren’t any serious indications that he would miss this game.
Mitchell’s 47% of snaps was fourth on the team, and he may be an up-trending option for the Patriots to play with. The Rams’ positional matchup is a non-issue as New England should roll as they see fit, but for the cheap price with a potential ceiling, he may be worth a shot.
Update – Gronkowski (ruptured disk) is scheduled for surgery this Friday, and may tentatively miss the next eight weeks. New England receiving options will get a bump across the board.
Taylor Gabriel (ATL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 5700. Gabriel’s upcoming salary ranks him 59th/42nd on DK/FD, respectively. Gabriel put up a line of 4-75-2 on 5 targets and 1-27-0 on the ground against Arizona last week. Gabriel’s fantasy points of 26.2/24.2 ranked him 10th/8th on DK and FD, respectively. Gabriel’s price per point efficiency ranked him second on both DK and FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Chiefs currently has the game total at 49 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Falcons as -3.5 point home favorites.
Kansas City’s defense ranks 20th in pass yards allowed (260.5), 29th in rush yards allowed (121.4), and 8th in points allowed (19.5) per game. Kansas City’s defense also ranks 22nd against QBs (18.3), 31st against WRs (27.5), 13th against RBs (16.44), and 4th against TEs (4.62) in fantasy points allowed. Kansas City gave up 20 catches for 368 yards and 3 receiving TDs to Denver last week.
Atlanta’s offense ranks 3rd in passing yards gained (303.1), 15th in rushing yards gained (108.4), and first in points scored (32.5).
Gabriel has averaged 18.8 fantasy points over the past four games, catching a TD in each game, and has scored at least 14 points (DK scoring) in each of these games. He has outscored Julio Jones who has averaged 17 points during this time span. Gabriel logged 50% of the offensive snaps last week but the speedster gets a friendly matchup in the home dome, and could potentially assume a bigger role. At his cheap cost and big-play potential, the speedster may well be worth a shot.
Tight End
Lance Kendricks (LA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Kendricks’ upcoming salary ranks him 19th/18th on DK/FD, respectively. Kendricks put up a line of 4-51-1 on 7 targets (2nd on team) at New Orleans last week. Kendricks’ fantasy points of 15.1/13.1 ranked him 6th/5th on DK/FD, respectively. Kendricks’ price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Patriots currently has the game total at 44.5 points, with the Rams as +13.5 point road dogs.
New England’s defense ranks 14th against TEs (6.9) in fantasy points allowed. Kendricks has logged 7 targets and 4 receptions in each of the past two games that Jared Goff has started. The 7 targets have him in the top two on the team for those two games. Goff should have ample attempts in this game and Kendricks would be a good candidate for garbage-time stats as Goff’s security option.
Vance McDonald (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. McDonald’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/18th on DK/FD, respectively. McDonald put up a line of 4-60-0 on 8 targets (team high) at Miami last week. McDonald’s fantasy points of 10/8 ranked him 13th on both DK/FD.
The Vegas line with the Bears currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the 49ers as +1.5 point road dogs.
Chicago’s defense ranks 7th against TEs (5.84) in fantasy points allowed. Delanie Walker put up a line of 3-50-1 on 4 targets at Chicago last week.
McDonald has averaged 12.5 fantasy points the past four games receiving at least 6 targets in all of them. McDonald is second on the team in receiving yards (382) and leads the team with four receiving TDs. Chicago’s decimated defense will lose ILB Danny Trevathan (patellar tendon) for the year and ILB Jerrell Freeman (PED suspension) for the next four games. McDonald makes for a safe/cheap play as his consistent role with Kaepernick should continue with healthy Bear defenders now virtually extinct.
Check out the Week 13 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 13 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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