NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 9
NFL Week 9: October 28 – November 1, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 9.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Derek Carr (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7500. Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) -3 at New York Giants (2-6) – Over/Under: 46.5. The Raiders are coming off their bye and the Giants are getting a short week.
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 24.75
Giants = 21.75
Patrick Mahomes logged a 29/48, 275, 1:1 passing line against the Giants last week.
The Giants rank 21st vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed and 11th in pass defense DVOA.
The Raiders O-line ranks 20th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Giants’ defense which ranks 8th.
Carr is the current QB10 on the season, ranking 2nd in pass yards/gm. (324.1). Carr has been successful going deep (3rd in big-time throw rate), and the Giants have been susceptible to the deep pass. Carr is in a decent spot for sub $6K, assuming Darren Waller (ankle) is good to go following the bye.
UPDATE:
Waller is not on the injury report.
Running Back
Zack Moss (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Moss’ upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/25th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Buffalo Bills (5-2) -14 at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-6) – Over/Under: 49
Implied Team Totals:
Bills = 31.5
Jaguars = 17.5
Moss posted an 8-19-0 rushing line (2.4 avg.) and 6-39-0 on a season high 7 targets (17.1%) with 47 snaps (64%) against the Dolphins (24th vs. RBs) last week.
Seahawks’ RBs combined for a 22-66-0 rushing line (3.0 avg.) and 1-3-0 on 1 target against the Jaguars last week. The Bills’ O-line ranks 6th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jaguars’ defense which ranks 13th.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 17th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed.
Moss has assumed the majority of the RB snaps over Devin Singletary (34% last week) as well as the backfield receiving work. As two TD favorites, the Bills could be in a favorable run-heavy script at some point.
Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Renfrow’s upcoming salary ranks him 38th/39th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Las Vegas Raiders (5-2) -3 at New York Giants (2-6) – Over/Under: 46.5. The Raiders are coming off their bye and the Giants are getting a short week.
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 24.75
Giants = 21.75
Chiefs’ WRs combined for a 19-187-1 line on 29 targets against the Giants last week.
The Giants rank 20th vs WRs in fantasy points allowed and 11th in pass defense DVOA.
WR Henry Ruggs (DUI w/death arrest) is out indefinitely. Ruggs was the Raiders’ leader in receiving yards (20.7%). The Raiders are now down to three active WRs with no transactions prior to the trade deadline. Renfrow should see a volume bump. Renfrow leads Raider WRs in target % (20.1%), red zone target % (21.9%), catches (38), and YAC (186).
Amari Cooper (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Cooper’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Denver Broncos (4-4) at Dallas Cowboys (6-1) -9.5 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cowboys = 29.5
Broncos = 20
Cooper posted an 8-122-1 line on 13 targets (31.7%) with 63 snaps (86%), at Minnesota (27th vs. WRs) last week, good for the WR4 finish, with QB Cooper Rush under center. Cooper’s receiving line led the team in all categories last week. Cooper leads the team in red zone target % (26.47%), end zone targets (6), TDs (5), air yards % (31.7%), and WOPR (.55).
Washington WRs combined for a 10-151-1 line on 20 targets at Denver last week.
The Broncos rank 9th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 21st in pass defense DVOA. The Broncos’ defense have faced weak WR matchups all season, excluding the Giants and the Steelers.
They will now get a system shock against the Cowboys’ WR unit, and WR Michael Gallup is expected back this week as well. The Cowboys’ offense ranks 3rd in scoring, pass yards, and pass offense DVOA. The Broncos loss of their best pass-rusher Von Miller (traded to the Rams for picks), doesn’t help either. QB Dak Prescott (calf) is also expected to return this week.
UPDATE:
Gallup was not activated from IR. TE Blake Jarwin (hip) has been placed on IR.
Tight End
Tyler Conklin (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Conklin’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Minnesota Vikings (3-4) at Baltimore Ravens (5-2) -6 – Over/Under: 50. The Ravens are coming off their bye.
Implied Team Totals:
Ravens = 28
Vikings = 22
Conklin posted a 5-57-0 line on 7 targets (21.2%) with 54 snaps (82%) against the Cowboys (22nd vs. TEs) last week. Conklin’s targets, catches, and yards all ranked 2nd on the team last week.
C.J. Uzomah dropped a 3-91-2 line on 3 targets at Baltimore in Week 7.
The Ravens rank 32nd vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed and 23rd in pass defense DVOA.
Conklin has exceeded 10 fantasy points over the past two games, and gets a great matchup for cheap.
Dallas Goedert (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Goedert’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Los Angeles Chargers (4-3) -2 at Philadelphia Eagles (3-5) – Over/Under: 50.
Implied Team Totals:
Chargers = 26
Eagles = 24
Goedert posted a 6-72-0 line on 7 targets (43.8%) with 44 snaps (68%) at Detroit (12th vs. TEs) last week, good for the TE4 finish. Goedert’s receiving line led the team in all categories last week.
Patriots’ TEs combined for a 3-46-0 line on 5 targets at the Chargers last week.
The Chargers rank 30th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed and 4th in pass defense DVOA.
Goedert has averaged 6 targets and 71 receiving yards in the two games since the Zach Ertz trade to the Cardinals.
