NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 6
NFL Week 6: October 14 – October 18, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 6.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (10 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6700, FanDuel (FD) – 7900. Stafford’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/6th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Los Angeles Rams (4-1) -10.5 at New York Giants (1-4) – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Rams = 29
Giants = 18.5
Stafford posted a passing line of 25/37, 365, 1:1, at Seattle (25th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB13 finish.
Dak Prescott recorded a 22/32, 302, 3:1 passing line and 2-6-0, on the ground, with a lost fumble, against the Giants last week, good for the QB7 finish.
The Giants rank 27th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed.
The Rams O-line ranks 1st in adjusted sack rate vs. a Giants’ defense which ranks 30th. The Rams passing offense ranks 2nd in DVOA vs. a Giants’ defense which 22nd.
Stafford should be able to dissect from a clean pocket, with favorable matchups across the board. The one aspect that could limit Stafford’s ceiling this week is their own run-game.
Running Back
Darrell Henderson Jr. (LAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7300. Henderson’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Los Angeles Rams (4-1) -10.5 at New York Giants (1-4) – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Rams = 29
Giants = 18.5
Henderson posted a 17-82-1 rushing line (4.8 avg.) and 1-17-0 on 1 target with 44 snaps (66%) at Seattle (30th vs. RBs) last week.
Cowboys’ RBs combined for a 35-185-1 rushing line (5.29 avg.) and 6-30-1 on 7 targets against the Giants’ last week. The Rams’ O-line ranks 8th in adjusted line yards vs. the Giants’ defense which ranks 32nd.
The Giants’ defense ranks 27th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 29th in rush defense DVOA.
As two-score favorites, with a tissue-soft matchup, Henderson smash potential for a value is in play.
Kareem Hunt (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6200, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Hunt’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Arizona Cardinals (5-0) at Cleveland Browns (3-2) -3 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Browns = 26.25
Cardinals = 23.25
Hunt posted a 12-61-2 rushing line (5.1 avg.) and 5-28-0 on 6 targets (20.7%) with 32 snaps (44%) at the Chargers (28th vs. RBs) last week.
49ers’ RBs combined for an 11-50-0 rushing line (4.55 avg.) and 5-54-0 on 6 targets at Arizona last week. QB Trey Lance added 16-89-0 on the ground himself however.
The Browns’ O-line ranks 2nd in adjusted line yards vs. the Cardinals’ defense which ranks 25th.
The Cardinals’ defense ranks 7th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 13th in rush defense DVOA. DE Chandler Jones’ (Covid) tested positive and his status is currently uncertain. If he is vaccinated, he has a shot to get cleared for Sunday. If he’s not, he’s out.
Hunt leads the team in fantasy points scored, narrowly edging out teammate Nick Chubb (93.4 to 89.8), despite a lower snap ratio (44.8% to 51.3%). Hunt also leads the team in targets (21), catches (17), TDs (5), and inside-the-5 TDs (3). Hunt also costs $1000 less than Chubb on DK.
UPDATE:
Chubb (calf) has been ruled out.
Wide Receiver
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Pittman’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/27th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Houston Texans (1-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-3) -9.5 – Over/Under: 42.5
Implied Team Totals:
Colts = 26
Texans = 16.5
Pittman posted a 6-89-1 line on a team high 7 targets (20.6%) with 61 snaps (88%) at Baltimore (7th vs. WRs) last week, good for the WR15 finish.
Patriots’ WRs combined for a 11-123-0 line on 14 targets at Houston last week.
The Texans rank 8th vs WRs in fantasy points allowed and 9th in pass defense DVOA.
The Texans have only faced two true WR1s thus far, D.J. Moore (8-126-0) in Week 3, and Stefon Diggs (7-114-0) in Week 4. They will see their third WR1 in Pittman this week, and the TD mean regression is coming at some point.
Tee Higgins (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300, FanDuel (FD) – 6400. Higgins’ upcoming salary ranks him 23rd/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Cincinnati Bengals (3-2) -3.5 at Detroit Lions (0-5) – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Bengals = 25.5
Lions = 22
Higgins posted a 5-32-0 line on 7 targets (18.9%) with 47 snaps (70%) with a 2-point score, against the Packers (10th vs. WRs) last week.
Vikings’ WRs combined for a 15-196-0 line on 19 targets against the Lions last week.
The Lions rank 11th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 27th in pass defense DVOA.
Higgins (shoulder) survived his return since his Week 2 appearance. Ja’Marr Chase is getting the all the deserved attention, but Higgins has top 10 upside against a Lions’ defense that has been scorched by peer WRs Deebo Samuel (9-189-1), Davante Adams (8-121-0), Darnell Mooney (5-125-0), and Justin Jefferson (7-124-0).
Tight End
Ricky Seals-Jones (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 18th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Kansas City Chiefs (2-3) -7 at Washington Football Team (2-3) – Over/Under: 55.5
Implied Team Totals:
Chiefs = 31
WFT = 24.5
RSJ posted a 5-41-0 line on 8 targets (20%) (2nd on team), with 82 snaps (99%), both league highs for TEs, against the Saints (9th vs. TEs) last week.
Bills’ TEs combined for a 4-118-1 line on 5 targets at Kansas City last week.
The Chiefs rank 29th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed and 31st in pass defense DVOA.
RSJ has stepped into Logan Thomas’ every-down role. As TD dogs, and never leaving the field, RSJ is underpriced for the ample opportunities coming his way.
