NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 5
NFL Week 5: October 7 – October 11, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 5.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (12 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Trey Lance (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 6900. Lance’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: San Francisco 49ers (2-2) at Arizona Cardinals (4-0) -5.5 – Over/Under: 49.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cardinals = 27.5
49ers = 22
Lance posted a passing line of 9/18, 157, 2:0, and 7-41-0 on the ground, all in the 2nd half, against the Seahawks (25th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB15 finish.
Matthew Stafford recorded a 26/41, 280, 2:2 passing line and 6-21-0 on the ground against the Cardinals last week, good for the QB16 finish.
The Cardinals rank 8th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed.
The Cardinals O-line ranks 7th in adjusted sack rate vs. a 49ers’ defense which ranks 17th.
Assuming Lance gets the start for Jimmy Garoppolo (calf), he provides for a cheap, solid floor with upside play.
UPDATE:
Garoppolo has not practiced all week. Garoppolo has been ruled out on Friday. TE George Kittle (calf) has been placed on IR.
Daniel Jones (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: New York Giants (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) -7 – Over/Under: 52.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cowboys = 29.75
Giants = 22.75
Jones posted a passing line of 28/40, 402, 2:1, and 4-27-0 on the ground, at New Orleans (7th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB4 finish.
Sam Darnold recorded a 26/39, 301, 2:2 passing line and 6-35-2 on the ground at Dallas last week, good for the QB1 finish.
The Cowboys rank 30th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed.
The Giants O-line ranks 13th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Cowboys’ defense which ranks 21st.
Jones is the overall QB6, ranks 3rd in QB rush yards, and 4th in QB rush TDs. This game’s projected up-paced tempo aids the scoring environment. He’ll get an implied passing scenario in a good matchup.
Running Back
Leonard Fournette (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 6400. Fournette’s upcoming salary ranks him 27th/21ston DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Miami Dolphins (1-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) -10 – Over/Under: 48
Implied Team Totals:
Buccaneers = 29
Dolphins = 19
Fournette posted a 20-91-0 rushing line and 3-47-0 on 5 targets (11.6%) with 64 snaps (82%) at New England (2nd vs. RBs) last week.
Colts’ RBs combined for a 28-131-0 rushing line (4.7 avg.) and 6-17-0 on 7 targets at Miami last week. The Bucs’ O-line ranks 4th in adjusted line yards vs. the Dolphins’ defense which ranks 12th.
The Dolphins’ defense ranks 31st vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed.
Despite losing a rushing TD to Ronald Jones (17% snaps) last week, Lenny has solidified himself as the Bucs’ RB1. Giovani Bernard (knee) missed last week, and his status is currently unknown. Without Bernard, Fournette would be a value with his role/usage as a big favorite with a great matchup.
UPDATE:
Bernard practiced Friday, and is expected to suit up. Bernard would assume passing-down situations if needed, but the Bucs could get up big early.
Damien Williams (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 21st/28th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Chicago Bears (2-2) at Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) -5 – Over/Under: 44
Implied Team Totals:
Raiders = 24.5
Bears = 19.5
Williams posted an 8-55-1 rushing line (6.9 avg.) and 2-15-0 on 2 targets (11.8%) with 19 snaps (33%) against the Lions (29th vs. RBs) last week.
Chargers’ RBs combined for a 29-144-1 rushing line (4.97 avg.) and 7-45-1 on 9 targets against the Raiders last week. The Bears’ O-line ranks 20th in adjusted line yards vs. the Raiders’ defense which ranks 14th.
The Raiders’ defense ranks 26th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed.
RB David Montgomery (knee) racked up a 23-106-2 rushing line last week, but exited and will miss multiple weeks. Montgomery accounted for 63% of the team rushing attempts (5th in the NFL), and logged a 72.6% snap rate (6th in the NFL). Williams will likely step into a 3-down role, as he is adept in the passing game.
Wide Receiver
Kadarius Toney (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Toney’s upcoming salary ranks him 62nd/48th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: New York Giants (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) -7 – Over/Under: 52.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cowboys = 29.75
Giants = 22.75
Toney posted a 6-78-0 line on a team high 9 targets (25%) with 49 snaps (78%) at New Orleans (22nd vs. WRs) last week.
Panthers’ WRs combined for a 16-224-2 line on 28 targets at Dallas lsat week.
The Cowboys rank 30th vs WRs in fantasy points allowed.
At this point, WRs Sterling Shepherd (hamstring) and Darius Slayton (hamstring) are both looking to miss again, leaving Toney in play as a cheap option, in an expected passing-script, with a solid matchup.
UPDATE:
WRs Sterling Shepherd and Darius Slayton ruled out.
Jakobi Meyers (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Meyers’ upcoming salary ranks him 25th/33rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: New England Patriots (1-3) -8.5 at Houston Texans (1-3) – Over/Under: 39.5
Implied Team Totals:
Patriots = 24
Texans = 15.5
Meyers posted an 8-70-0 line on a team high 12 targets (28.6%) with 56 snaps (95%), including a 2/2, 45 0:0 passing line against the Bucs (32nd vs. WRs) last week.
Bills’ WRs combined for a 14-204-0 line on 20 targets against the Texans last week.
The Texans rank 11th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed.
The Patriots should be able to choose their path to success here, but any route through the air will go through Meyers. Meyers leads the team in all receiving stats by far, except for TDs. He’s due to hit.
Tight End
Dalton Schultz (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Schultz’ upcoming salary ranks him 8th/4th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: New York Giants (1-3) at Dallas Cowboys (3-1) -7 – Over/Under: 52.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cowboys = 29.75
Giants = 22.75
Schultz posted a 6-58-1 line on a team high 8 targets (36.4%) with 48 snaps (79%) against the Panthers (15th vs. TEs) last week.
Saints’ TEs combined for a 3-23-1 line on 4 targets against the Gaints last week.
The Giants rank 29th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed.
Schultz is the TE4 on the year, and has been on fire averaging 21.9 fantasy points over his past two games. He also gets the best positional matchup against the Giants this week.
