NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 4
NFL Week 4: September 30 – October 4, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 4.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Sam Darnold (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000 (12% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7200 (12% of cap). Darnold’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1) -4 – Over/Under: 50.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cowboys = 27.25
Panthers = 23.25
Darnold posted a passing line of 23/34, 304, 0:0, and 8-11-2 on the ground at Houston (24th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB5 finish.
Jalen Hurts recorded a 25/39, 326, 2:2 passing line and 9-35-0 on the ground at Dallas last week, good for the QB7 finish.
The Cowboys rank 29th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed after facing Philly, the Chargers, and Tampa Bay.
The Panthers O-line ranks 14th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Cowboys’ defense which ranks 31st.
Darnold surprisingly is currently the QB10, ahead of Russ, Herbert, and Dak. He provides for cheaper salary relief with a passing-script, in a good matchup.
Running Back
David Montgomery (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800 (11.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7500 (12.5% of cap). Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 18th/8th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on DK.
The Line: Detroit Lions (0-3) at Chicago Bears (1-2) -3 – Over/Under: 42
Implied Team Totals:
Bears = 22.5
Lions = 19.5
Montgomery posted a 10-34-0 rushing line and 2-21-0 on 4 targets (20%) with 37 snaps (82%) at Cleveland (3rd vs. RBs) last week.
Ravens’ RBs combined for a 15-58-0 rushing line and 1 missed target at Detroit last week. Lamar Jackson added 7-58-0 on his own. The Bears’ O-line ranks 28th in adjusted line yards vs. the Lions’ defense which ranks 26th.
The Lions’ defense ranks 24th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed after facing Baltimore, Green Bay, and San Francisco.
Montgomery should be the offensive focus this week, with a high touch volume, and an implied positive-script.
Bears’ HC Nagy killed it in his “Adam Gase” impersonation last week. The Bears ended up with 47 yards of total offense. He couldn’t possibly encore this again, right? If the reincarnation of Gase re-emerges this week against a winless Lions’ team, all Bears become unplayable.
Trey Sermon (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000 (10% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.8% of cap). Sermon’s upcoming salary ranks him 32nd/24th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Seattle Seahawks (1-2) at San Francisco 49ers (2-1) -3 – Over/Under: 52
Implied Team Totals:
49ers = 27.5
Seahawks = 24.5
Sermon posted a 10-31-1 rushing line and 2-3-0 on 3 targets (7.9%) with 41 snaps (59%) against the Packers (6th vs. RBs) last week.
Vikings’ RBs combined for a 33-138-0 rushing line and 6-59-0 on 8 targets against the Seahawk last week. The 49ers’ O-line ranks 15th in adjusted line yards vs. the Seahawks’ defense which ranks 16th.
The Seahawks’ defense ranks last vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed after facing Minnesota, Tennessee, and Indy.
The rookie provides a cheap option in a good matchup with a positive script. He’ll remain the 49ers best option, assuming Elijah Mitchell (SF) (shoulder) misses this week.
UPDATE:
Mitchell logged a limited practice on Wednesday, and looks on track for a return. If this is the case, he would be the pivot to get at the Seahawks’ run defense.
Wide Receiver
Terrace Marshall Jr. (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000 (8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Marshall’s upcoming salary ranks him 62nd/72nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1) -4 – Over/Under: 50.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cowboys = 27.25
Panthers = 23.25
Marshall posted a 4-48-0 line on 5 targets (15.2%) with 45 snaps (62%) at Houston (9th vs. WRs) last week.
Eagles’ WRs combined for a 11-142-1 line on 17 targets at Dallas .
The Cowboys rank 27th vs WRs in fantasy points allowed after facing Philly, the Chargers, and Tampa Bay.
With the losses of RB Christian McCaffrey (hamstring) and TE Dan Arnold (traded to Jacksonville), 27.5% of the team target share opens up. RB Chuba Hubbard will get some of this, but not at the McCaffrey level. Arnold’s departure may factor more towards Marshall as the slot WR. Facing a negative-script, unlike last week, Marshall offers a potential cheap volume option.
Emmanuel Sanders (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900 (9.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.7% of cap). Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 41st/35th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Houston Texans (1-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-1) -16 – Over/Under: 48
Implied Team Totals:
Bills = 32 (highest on the board)
Texans = 16 (lowest on the board)
Sanders posted a 5-94-2 line on 6 targets (14%) with 63 snaps (80%) against Washington (31st vs. WRs) last week, good for the WR5 finish.
Panthers’ WRs combined for a 14-207-0 line on 20 targets at Houston last week.
The Texans rank 24th vs. QBs and 9th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed after facing Carolina, Cleveland, and Jacksonville.
The Bills rank 4th in pass attempts, 2nd in plays/gm, and 4th in seconds/play. They are a pass-happy bunch that plays fast, which provides for a great environment for all Bills’ receivers to eat.
Tight End
Noah Fant (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300 (8.6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5700 (9.5% of cap). Fant’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Baltimore Ravens (2-1) at Denver Broncos (3-0) -1 – Over/Under: 45
Implied Team Totals:
Broncos = 23
Ravens = 22
Fant posted a 2-15-0 line on 3 targets (12.5%) with 58 snaps (87%) against the Jets (7th vs. TEs) last week. In the 26-0 drubbing of the Jets, it was all ground and pound with a 37 to 25 rush vs. pass attempts disparity.
Lions’ TEs combined for a 4-45-0 line on 5 targets against the Ravens last week.
The Ravens rank 32nd vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed after facing, Detroit, Las Vegas, and Kansas City.
WR K.J. Hamler (ACL) is now out for the season, along with his 10.8% target share. Fant is in a nice bounce-back spot.
Dalton Schultz (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5000 (8.3% of cap). Schultz’ upcoming salary ranks him 16th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Carolina Panthers (3-0) at Dallas Cowboys (2-1) -4 – Over/Under: 50.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cowboys = 27.25
Panthers = 23.25
Schultz posted a 6-80-2 line on 7 targets (28%) with 53 snaps (69%) against the Eagles (26th vs. TEs, because of Schultz) last week, good for the TE1 finish.
Jordan Akins logged a 4-32-0 line on 5 targets against the Panthers last week.
The Panthers rank 6th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed, however, they have not yet been tested at TE as they have previously faced weak TE teams Houston, New Orleans, and the Jets.
Schultz gets a price discount, as the Cowboys played Sunday night, after salaries were already released. There’s a lot of weapons on the Cowboys, but Schultz is in the mix.
