NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 15
NFL Week 15: December 16 – 20, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 15.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Hill’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: New York Jets (3-10) at Miami Dolphins (6-7) -10 – Over/Under: 42.5. The Dolphins are coming off their bye.
Implied Team Totals:
Dolphins = 23.75
Jets = 18.75
Tua posted a 30/41, 244, 2:0 passing line against the Giants (21st vs. QBs) in Week 13.
The Jets ranks 25th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, 32nd in pass defense DVOA, and 32nd in dropback EPA.
The Dolphins’ O-line ranks 21st in adjusted sack rate vs. the Jets’ defense which ranks 15th.
The entire Dolphins RB backfield is currently on the COVID list, but it is possible they could return this week if the protocols are passed. Regardless, the Dolphins field a bottom-three run game, and their success will hinge on Tua. He is in a good spot, and his price makes him a nice value.
UPDATE:
WR1 Jaylen Waddle (COVID) is out. Definitely not good if further outbreaks occur.
Running Back
Devonta Freeman (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 21st/23rd on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Green Bay Packers (10-3) at Baltimore Ravens (8-5) +5 – Over/Under: 43.5
Implied Team Totals:
Packers = 24.25
Ravens = 19.25
Freeman logged a 13-64-0 rushing line (4.9 avg.) and 5-8-0 on 5 targets (12.5%) with 49 snaps (66%) at Cleveland (11th vs. RBs) last week.
Bears’ RBs combined for a 13-58-0 rushing line (4.5 avg.) and 7-43-0 on 8 targets at Green Bay last week.
The Packers’ defense ranks 12th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 24th in rush defense DVOA, and 25th in rush defense EPA. The Ravens’ O-line ranks 29th in adjusted line yards vs. the Packers’ defense which ranks 29th.
This play is contingent that QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) misses this week. Freeman logged 18 of the possible 19 RB touches last week, but caught a bad break and was vultured on the 1 yard line by Latavius Murray.
Wide Receiver
Gabriel Davis (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Davis’ upcoming salary ranks him 60th/74th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Carolina Panthers (5-8) at Buffalo Bills (7-6) -11 – Over/Under: 44.5
Implied Team Totals:
Bills = 27.75
Panthers = 16.75
Davis posted a 5-43-1 line on 8 targets (15.7%) with 65 snaps (83%), at Tampa Bay (28th vs. WRs) last week.
Falcons’ WRs (Russell Gage/Tajae Sharpe) combined for a 5-71-0 line on 8 targets at Carolina last week.
The Panthers’ defense ranks 6th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 6th in pass defense DVOA, and 5th in dropback EPA.
WR Emmanuel Sanders (knee) exited last week, and likely misses this week, elevating potential opportunities for Davis. Davis logged a season high in targets last week, and has scored in consecutive weeks. Davis provides a cheap receiving option on the 10th highest pass % team.
Tight End
Brevin Jordan (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Jordan’s upcoming salary ranks him 24th/18th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Houston Texans (2-11) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11) -4 – Over/Under: 39.5
Implied Team Totals:
Jaguars = 21.75
Texans = 17.75
Jordan posted a 4-26-1 line on 7 targets (14.6%) with 29 snaps (36%), against the Seahawks (30th vs. TEs) last week.
Titans’ TEs combined for an 8-84-0 line on 12 targets against the Jaguars last week.
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 19th vs. TEs in fantasy points, 31st in pass defense DVOA, and 30th in dropback EPA.
Jordan leads the team in red zone TDs with 3, despite appearing in only 6 games on the year. The next closest Texan has 1. Jordan makes for a cheap value punt play in the AFC Suck Bowl.
