NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 14
NFL Week 14: December 9 – 13, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 14.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Taysom Hill (NO) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Hill’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: New Orleans Saints/a> (5-7) at New York Jets (3-9) +5 – Over/Under: 42.5
Implied Team Totals:
Saints = 23.75
Jets = 18.75
Hill posted a 19/41, 264, 2:4 passing line and 11-101-0 on the ground against the Cowboys (27th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB4 finish.
Gardner Minshew logged a 20/25, 242, 2:0 passing line and 4-11-0 on the ground at the Jets last week, good for the QB11 finish.
The Jets ranks 19th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, and 32nd/30th in pass/rush defense DVOA.
The Saints’ O-line ranks 20th in adjusted line yards vs. the Jets’ defense which ranks 20th.
RB Mark Ingram (COVID) is likely out and WR Deonte Harris (suspended) is out, elevating Hill’s rushing floor. The Jets’ defense gives up the 3rd most rushing yards and the most points.
Running Back
Javonte Williams (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Williams’ upcoming salary ranks him 16th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Detroit Lions (1-10-1) at Denver Broncos (6-6) -8 – Over/Under: 42
Implied Team Totals:
Broncos = 25
Lions = 17
Williams logged a 23-102-0 rushing line (4.4 avg.) and 6-76-1 on 9 targets (25%) with 60 snaps (78%) at Kansas City (19th vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB1 finish. His targets and catches led the team.
Vikings’ RBs combined for a 24-90-1 rushing line (3.8 avg.) and 6-57-0 on 7 targets at Detroit last week.
The Lions’ defense ranks 29th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed, 23rd in rush defense DVOA, and 17th in rush defense EPA. The Broncos’ O-line ranks 12th in adjusted line yards vs. the Lions’ defense which ranks 26th.
RB Melvin Gordon (hip) missed last week, but will likely make his return. Any limitations to Gordon’s snaps would have Williams in a good spot. Since DFS salaries were released before the Denver @ Kansas City Sunday Night game concluded, Williams’ salary wasn’t adjusted.
Wide Receiver
Hunter Renfrow (LV) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Renfrow’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Las Vegas Raiders (6-6) at Kansas City Chiefs (8-4) -9.5 – Over/Under: 47.5
Implied Team Totals:
Chiefs = 28.5
Raiders = 19
Renfrow posted a 9-102-0 line on 10 targets (23.1%) with 54 snaps (92%), against Washington (31st vs. WRs) last week, good for the WR9 finish.
Broncos’ WRs combined for an 8-108-0 line on 18 targets at Kansas City last week.
The Chiefs’ defense ranks 6th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed, 20th in pass defense DVOA, and 20th in dropback EPA.
Henfrow recorded 19 targets, 17 catches, and 236 yards over his past two games. TE Darren Waller (knee) did not practice Wednesday and his status is currently unknown. As two score dogs, Renfrow should likely be the Raiders’ offensive focal point.
Tight End
Austin Hooper (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Moreau’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/16th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Baltimore Ravens (8-4) at Cleveland Browns (6-6) -2.5 – Over/Under: 42
Implied Team Totals:
Browns = 22.25
Ravens = 19.75
Steelers’ TEs combined for a 5-36-0 line on 6 targets against the Ravens last week.
The Ravens’ defense ranks 29th vs. TEs in fantasy points, 27th in pass defense DVOA, and 24th in dropback EPA.
TEs David Njoku (COVID) and Harrison Bryant (ankle) are likely out, leaving Hooper as the last man standing in what typically is a 3-man TEBC in Cleveland. The Browns’ TEs combine for a 29% target share and 8.8 targets/gm. Hooper offers a nice volume and matchup combo for cheap.
UPDATE:
Njoku and Bryant have been ruled out.
