NFL DFS Value Player Picks – Week 10
NFL Week 10: November 11 – November 15, 2021
We’ll provide some insights and review some of our DFS value players for week 10.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (11 games).
Betting lines are per the DraftKings Sportsbook as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Justin Herbert (LAC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 7300, FanDuel (FD) – 8000. Herbert’s upcoming salary ranks him 4th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) -2.5 at Minnesota Vikings (3-5) – Over/Under: 53.
Implied Team Totals:
Chargers = 27.75
Vikings = 25.25
Herbert dropped a 32/38, 356, 2:0 passing line and 5-14-1 on the ground at Philadelphia (12th vs. QBs) last week, good for the QB2 finish.
Lamar Jackson logged a 27/41, 266, 3:2 passing line and 21-120-0 on the ground against the Vikings last week, good for the QB1 finish.
The Vikings rank 19th vs. QBs in fantasy points allowed, 28th vs. QBs over the past four weeks, and 3rd in pass defense DVOA.
The Chargers O-line ranks 5th in adjusted sack rate vs. a Vikings’ defense which ranks 3rd.
Herbert, currently the QB4 on the season, offers a solid floor/potential ceiling play this week.
Running Back
James Conner (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6300, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Conner’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Line: Carolina Panthers (4-5) at Arizona Cardinals (8-1) -10 – Over/Under: 44.5
Implied Team Totals:
Cardinals = 27.25
Panthers = 17.25
Conner dropped a 21-96-2 rushing line (4.6 avg.) and 5-77-1 on a season high 5 targets (19.2%) with 54 snaps (77%) at San Francisco (22nd vs. RBs) last week, good for the RB1 finish.
Patriots’ RBs combined for a 33-146-1 rushing line (4.4 avg.) and 5-74-0 on 5 targets at Carolina last week.
The Panthers’ defense ranks 4th vs. RBs in fantasy points allowed and 19th in rush defense DVOA. The Cardinals’ O-line ranks 18th in adjusted line yards vs. the Panthers’ defense which ranks 10th.
With Chase Edmonds (ankle) leaving the game after his first snap, Conner took over the full-time role last week. Edmonds is expected to miss multiple weeks.
Even if QB Kyler Murray (ankle) were to return this week, any potential rush attempts would likely be removed from the game plan. Conner already leads the NFL in red zone TDs (10) and inside-the-5 TDs (7), and should see most, if not all those carries.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Johnson (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Johnson’s upcoming salary ranks him 69th/66th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-2) -9.5 at Washington Football Team (2-6) – Over/Under: 51. The both teams are coming off their byes.
Implied Team Totals:
Buccaneers = 30.25
Washington = 20.75
Johnson posted a 5-65-0 line on a season high 6 targets (14.6%) with 39 snaps (64%) at New Orleans (29th vs. WRs) last week.
Broncos’ WRs combined for a 9-143-0 line on 11 targets against Washington in Week 8.
Washington ranks 31st vs WRs in fantasy points allowed and 31st in pass defense DVOA.
Assuming Antonio Brown (ankle) is out again this week, Johnson offers a reliable receiving option, with a great matchup, for a near minimum price.
Jerry Jeudy (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Jeudy’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/26th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Philadelphia Eagles (3-6) at Denver Broncos (5-4) -3 – Over/Under: 44
Implied Team Totals:
Broncos = 23.5
Eagles = 20.5
Jeudy posted a 6-69-0 line on a team high 8 targets (32%) with 47 snaps (60%), at Dallas (24th vs. WRs) last week.
Chargers’ WRs combined for a 17-203-0 line on 22 targets at Philadelphia last week.
The Eagles rank 4th vs. WRs in fantasy points allowed and 21st in pass defense DVOA.
The Eagles’ secondary is strong on the perimeter, however against the slot, a different story. Against slot WRs, they have given up usable receiving lines to Keenan Allen (12-104-0), Hunter Renfrow (7-58-0), Chris Godwin (5-43-0), Tyreek Hill (11-186-3), and Ceedee Lamb (3-66-0).
Tight End
Tyler Conklin (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 5300. Conklin’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Minnesota Vikings (3-5) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3) -2.5 – Over/Under: 52.
Implied Team Totals:
Chargers = 27.25
Vikings = 24.75
Conklin posted a 5-45-0 line on 7 targets (25%) with 47 snaps (87%) at Baltimore (31st vs. TEs) last week. Conklin led the team in targets (tied) and catches last week.
Dallas Goedert logged a 3-43-0 line on 6 targets against the Chargers last week.
The Chargers rank 27th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed and 9th in pass defense DVOA.
Conklin has averaged 7 targets, 5 catches, and 51 yards in consecutive games, giving him a solid floor. The Chargers have given up 5 TDs to TEs this season, and Conklin has scored once, so there’s a chance.
Dan Arnold (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Arnold’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Line: Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) at Indianapolis Colts (4-5) -10 – Over/Under: 47.5.
Implied Team Totals:
Colts = 28.75
Jaguars = 18.75
Arnold posted a 4-60-0 line on 7 targets (25.9%) with 35 snaps (57%) against the Bills (9th vs. TEs) last week. Arnold’s targets, catches (tied), and yards led the team last week.
Jets’ TEs combined for an 8-82-1 line on 12 targets at Indy last week.
The Colts rank 28th vs. TEs in fantasy points allowed and 26th in pass defense DVOA.
Arnold has averaged 8.5 targets, 6 catches, and 64 receiving yards in the past two games, and has become the Jaguars’ defacto WR1 during this stretch. At 6’6″, he is the only receiving option with size. With the Jaguars always in a weekly passing-script, Arnold provides a stable weekly TE option since joining the team three games ago.
