Week 4 is in the books, capped off with another instance of NFL referees not knowing the rules of their own sport.
Quarterback:
Rivers put up a 23/38, 358, 3:0 line against Cleveland. Rivers ranked 1st for QBs in scoring on both DraftKings (DK) and FanDuel (FD). His salary cost per point ranked him in the top 2 on both sites.
Rivers has a solid matchup against Pittsburgh at home Monday Night with the Chargers currently -3 point favorites with a game total at 45.5 points. Pittsburgh’s Defense vs. Position (DvP) is ranked 18th.
Rivers’ salary price ranks him 11th/12th on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Rivers’ favorite red zone target, Antonio Gates returns from suspension this week and Pittsburgh’s defense has been top 5 against the run, leaving Rivers with a potential +300 yard, +35 attempt night.
McCown had a solid line of 32/41, 356, 2:0, and 1 fumble lost against a solid San Diego secondary. McCown ranked 2nd in fantasy scoring on DK and 4th on FD. McCown’s price per point efficiency ranked him in the top 3 on both sites.
McCown should be busy against Baltimore who rank 23rd in DvP and 21st overall. Baltimore is currently a -6.5 favorite with a 43.5 point game total.
McCown’s salary ranks him 21st/25th on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. It took Cleveland 4 weeks to figure it out but it is nice to see them identify and target their most productive players. It appears they have found a nice niche role for Duke Johnson, who tied for team highs in targets (10) with Travis Benjamin.
Baltimore’s defensive strength is against the run, and if the game script holds, McCown should find himself with plenty of attempts to what should now be anticipated solid targets.
Running Back:
QB Andrew Luck is likely to be ruled out which changed the line to Houston as -4.5 home favorites. The positive game script has Foster in line to possibly finish in the top 2-3 in touches for RBs this week, as he should clearly be the focal point for the Houston offense. O’Brien will feed Foster as much as he can handle. With WRs Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts both out, Foster should also have a decent floor for receptions.
Johnson’s week 4 line against San Diego led the team in touches with 17 at 8-31-0, and 9-85-1 on 10 targets. Johnson ranked 4th/6th in fantasy scoring on DK/FD, respectively. His cost per point scored ranked him at 2nd/1st for FD/DK respectively.
Baltimore is a -6.5 point favorite with defensive ranks at 6th in DvP and 21st overall. The DvP rank of 6th is more of an issue for Isaiah Crowell, as Johnson may end up being a top 3 aerial weapon for Cleveland.
Johnson’s salary ranks him 26th/37th on DK and FD respectively. With a defined role and an anticipated positive game script, Johnson does have potential to meet/exceed value here.
Hillman put up a line of 11-103-1, and 1-5-0 on 1 target against Minnesota. Hillman had the same amount of touches (12) as C.J. Anderson, but drastically out-performed him with a changing of the guard having occurred with Anderson losing his starting job to Hillman. Hillman’s scoring ranked 9th/10th on DK and FD, respectively.
Denver heads west to Oakland where the Broncos are -5 point favorites with a game total at 45. Oakland is ranked 17th in DvP and 31st overall. With increased touches and a favorable anticipated game script, Hillman has an opportunity to cement his new starting role.
Hillman’s salary ranks him 19th on DK and 20th on FD where he is priced approximately equivalent to Anderson. Anderson is the obvious fade this week.
Gurley’s coming out party occurred in an unlikely scenario on the road against a solid Arizona defense. He dropped an impressive line of 19-146-0, and 2-15-0 on 2 targets. Gurley’s scoring ranked him 8th/11th on DK and FD, respectively. Gurley’s price per point efficiency ranked him in the top 8 on both sites.
The Rams are road dogs at +9, with a game total at 46 in Green Bay. Green Bay is ranked 11th in DvP and 6th overall. Gurley’s salary ranks him 32nd/20th on DK and FD, respectively. The Rams defense has been solid ranking 9th overall, but Gurley faces a negative game script and lost touches to Tavon Austin, if the Rams find themselves getting blown out early, so there is risk involved here.
Wide Receiver:
Hopkins is the only other Houston skill player that gets a perfect storm. Teammates Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts are out. The Colts’ CB1 Vontae Davis is most likely out. Hopkins should easily lead all WRs in targets this week and bring with that a very high floor at minimum.
Hankerson put up a line of 6-103-1 on 8 targets (all team highs), in the blowout against Houston. Hankerson’s points ranked him 6th on both DraftKings and FanDuel, for WRs last week. His price per point efficiency ranked him 4th on both sites as well.
Washington heads to the Georgia Dome as +7.5 dogs with a game total at 48. Washington is ranked 23rd in DvP. Hankerson’s salary is ranked 33rd/48th on FD and DK, respectively, making him a better WR value on DK.
Hankerson had overtaken Roddy White’s starting spot a couple of weeks ago and has justified the change as he is now the 3rd weapon in this high-powered offense.
Hurns put up a line of 11-116-1 on 15 targets (all team highs) in the win against the Colts. Hurns’ scoring ranked him in the top 3 on both DK and FD. His price per point efficiency ranked him in the top 2 on both sites as well.
Jacksonville is a +3 dog at Tampa Bay with a game total at 42. Tampa Bay ranks 20th in DvP. Hurns’ salary ranks him 31st/34th on FD and DK, repectively. Tampa Bay’s secondary offers nothing scary against Jacksonville’s air game which gives Hurns a decent floor at cheap price.
Snead registered a line of 6-89-0 on 6 targets in the win against Dallas. Snead’s scoring ranked him 22nd/26th on DK and FD, respectively. New Orleans heads to Philadelphia where the Eagles are -4.5 favorites with the 2nd highest game total at 49.
The Eagles are ranked 28th in DvP, and with a hurting Byron Maxwell likely on Brandin Cooks, Snead with his at/near bottom-barreled price, makes for a possible deep flier.
Tight End:
Clay remains in this space this week, after putting up a solid line of 9-111-0 on 13 targets against the Giants. Clay’s scoring ranked him 3rd/4th on DK and FD, respectively and his price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/4th on DK/FD. If Sammy Watkins’ (calf) remains out again this week, consider Clay the top target option for Taylor. Monitor Watkins’ status by week’s end.
Buffalo is currently favored by -2.5 with a 42 game total. Tennessee ranks 28th in DvP. Clay’s salary ranks him 5th/10th on FD/DK, respectively, making him a better value on DraftKings. With Watkins potentially missing this week, and a thin receiving corps to begin with, Clay could potentially come through this week again.
The Raiders have given up 388 yards and 6 TDs to the TE through 4 weeks. They are ranked last in DvP and are currently averaging Gronkowski type fantasy points/game to opposing TEs.
Next in line, Daniels, who had a TD of his own last week against Minnesota. Especially with Demaryius Thomas and Manny Sanders coming to town as well, there simply is nothing the over-matched Raiders can do about this matchup nightmare at this point.
Daniel’s salary ranks him 24th/27th on FD/DK. Expect ownership percentages to be very high.
Kicker:
Santos was one of the top fantasy scorers on FanDuel last week, hitting 7/7 with a couple of 50+ kicks as well. Plus, you’ve got to love a coach who’d rather go to his kicker when down by multiple scores. With his near bottom-barreled cost against a hapless Chicago team, at home, as -9.5 favorites, what’s not to like?
Defense:
San Francisco travels east where the Giants get their turn to tee-off. San Francisco are +7 dogs with a game total at 43, and are the 7th worst in DvP. The game script should have San Francisco needing to go aerial with Kaepernick’s 2:5 ratio, and Pro Football Focus’ 37th worst QB grade (out of a possible 38). Kaepernick is also the 3rd most sacked QB with 14 through 4 weeks.
Green Bay’s defense last week held San Francisco to under 200 yards, 1 FG, caused 1 INT and 6 sacks, in the Niners’ house. With the Giants’ salary ranked 9th/18th on DK/FD, there is a lot of upside, with a reasonable cost, especially on FanDuel.
Check out the Week 5 schedule with spreads/totals/byes here.
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