NFL Best Bets – Week 14
All game lines are from the DraftKings Sportsbook.
This will be updated throughout the week as new plays are posted.
On December 7, 2021:
The Line: Buffalo Bills at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3
The Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-115)
The Bucs’ offense ranks 1st in DVOA by a wide margin (10.1% difference), and ranks 1st in EPA. The Bucs’ offense also ranks 1st in adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate. Either way, it’s a pick-your-poison problem for the Bills.
The Line: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers -11.5
The Pick: Packers -11.5 (-110)
Aaron Rodgers is 20-7 ATS career vs. the Bears, and the Packers are 10-2 ATS on the season (best in the NFL).
The Bears’ pass offense ranks 28th in DVOA, 29th in dropback EPA, and last in adjusted sack rate. The Packers’ pass defense ranks 10th, 11th, and 15th in these same respective categories. As two score dogs in this matchup, the Bears should get owned yet again.
On December 8, 2021:
The Line: New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers -10
The Pick: Giants +10 (-115)
The Chargers are likely to be without WRs Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and SCB Chris Harris, thus far, due to COVID.
On December 10, 2021:
The Line: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns -3
The Pick: Ravens +3 (-120)
The Ravens are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a road dog. The Browns are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a bye.
Despite a -2 turnover differential against the Browns in Week 12, the Ravens still won by 6 points and covered ATS.
The Line: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns – O/U = 42.5
The Pick: Under 42.5 (-110)
The under is 4-0 in the Ravens’ last four games. The under is also 4-1 in the Browns’ last five games as a home favorite.
The under hit in this Week 12 matchup, where the two teams totaled 26 points.
The Line: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team +4.5
The Pick: Cowboys -4.5 (-110)
The Cowboys are 9-3 ATS this season and Dak Prescott is 19-8 ATS against the NFC East.
The Cowboys’ pass offense should be firing on all cylinders as the receiving skill positions are all healthy. The Cowboys’ pass offense ranks 8th in DVOA vs. Washington’s pass defense which ranks 30th.
Scorecard: NFL Best Bets
Last Week: 3-1
Cumulative: 25-26
Legend:
ATS = Against the spread
SU = Straight up
O/U = Over/Under
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