On July 21st, 2015, FanDuel already released their NFL week 1 salaries for the Sept. 13th opening weekend. FanDuel has already offered up over $6.5 Million in guaranteed tournaments and action is already being taken.
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Although the NFL season doesn’t kickoff for another seven weeks, let’s take an early look at FanDuel’s week 1 pricing and potential plays:
Quarterback:
Aaron Rodgers (GB):
Rodgers comes in as the most expensive QB at $9,700 at Chicago. How on earth would playing the most expensive player make for a good value play? This would only make sense if the return was massive, and that is what the potential again is here.
The current over/under in this game is 50 points, the second highest total on the board for week 1, with Green Bay giving a -5.5 point spread. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded out the Chicago secondary as the 5th worst in the league while Green Bay’s passing offense was graded #1 last season. Chicago also gave up the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs last season.
Green Bay’s offense returns unchanged and Chicago’s defense is still primed for getting a new orifice torn open. Weather will not be a factor in Chicago since it will be early September.
Rodgers’ top 2 highest scoring games last season both came against Chicago for a combined point total of 65.48 points. With an avg. salary in those games of $9,700, that returns a very low 296.27 salary cost per point.
Rodgers’ will be a solid cash play and the safest play in week 1 at any position.
Matt Ryan (ATL):
Ryan is the 6th most expensive QB at $8,800. His matchup at home vs. Philadelphia has the highest over/under on the board at 53 points in a virtual pick ’em game.
Philadelphia’s defense gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to QBs last season, and although the defense is overall solid, their weakness is the secondary.
The Eagles lead the league in offensive snaps, which in turn will also provide a lot of opportunities for the pass-first Falcons, in what is expected to be a high scoring shootout on the Georgia Dome turf.
Ryan Tannehill (MIA):
Tannehill has the 12th highest salary at $8,000. Tannehill has a great matchup at Washington with this defense being graded out the worst in the league by PFF in pass coverage, run defense, and overall defense. Washington’s defense also gave up the most fantasy points to QBs last season.
Tannehill’s receiving corps has been improved from last season and this offense is primed to put up points in a great matchup.
Carson Palmer (ARI):
Palmer checks in as the 15th highest salaried QB at $7,700. Palmer’s matchup vs. New Orleans has a total of 47 points with the Cardinals favored by 2.5.
PPF graded New Orleans’ defense as the 2nd worst in both pass coverage and overall. The Saints also gave up the 4th highest fantasy points to QBs last season.
This game has shootout potential, and assuming Palmer’s health is not an issue, he could return value in this matchup.
Sam Bradford/Mark Sanchez (PHI):
Bradford costs $7,500 and Sanchez is at $6,600 with a great matchup vs. Atlanta. This matchup has a week high total of 53 points in a pick ’em game. Either QB would make a solid play in a potential shootout game, especially Sanchez at his price point if Bradford isn’t ready to go.
Atlanta’s defense had the 4th worst PFF pass coverage grade and gave up the 10th most points to QBs last season. The potential value return here seems likely in an efficient passing offense in an expected high scoring game.
Running Back:
Alfred Blue (HOU):
Currently Arian Foster’s backup, if Blue remains so, will get starter looks at a backup price.
Lamar Miller (MIA):
Miller checks in as the 18th highest salary at $7,300. Miller’s matchup at Washington is favorable since PFF’s grade for Washington’s defense is the worst in the league in both run defense and overall defense.
Washington’s defense actually gave up the 3rd least fantasy points to RBs last season, but that shouldn’t be the case this week as Miller, a three-down back, should have enough scoring potential for his price.
Jonathan Stewart (CAR):
Stewart is the 21st highest salaried back at $7,100. Stewart has a choice matchup in Jacksonville as Carolina comes in as 4 point favorites.
Jacksonville’s run defense has PFF’s 6th worst grade and also gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to RBs last season. With DeAngelo Williams gone, Stewart has the three down role to himself, and should be kept busy with Carolina nursing a lead.
Stewart risks losing goal-line looks to QB Cam Newton but the potential against Jacksonville could return value here.
Wide Receiver:
Jordan Matthews (PHI):
Matthews ranks as the 27th highest salaried receiver at $6,800. Matthews matchup at Atlanta has the highest total on the board at 53 in what could be the shootout of the week.
Atlanta’s pass coverage had the 4th worst PFF grade and gave up the 8th most fantasy points to WRs last season. Matthews is the Eagles WR1 and should see plenty of targets in this one.
Charles Johnson (MIN):
Johnson has the 41st highest salary at $5,600. Johnson is Minnesota’s WR1 and could immediately make an impact against the 49ers no long imposing defense.
Johnson’s salary should rise throughout the season, so this cheap price would definitely make taking a shot on him early.
Tight End:
Jordan Cameron (MIA):
Cameron is the 9th highest salaried TE at $5,500. Cameron has a great matchup vs. Washington’s terrible defense which gave up the 3rd most fantasy points to the TE last season.
Cameron, when healthy, could be Tannehill’s best red zone target and this particular matchup couldn’t be any better.
Defense:
Kansas City Chiefs:
With Arian Foster now out, the Chiefs defense faces Houston without their top offensive player but priced as if they were.
Updates will be made through the pre-season as new info arises.
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