NFL Week 9: November 3rd – 7th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 9.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Prescott’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th on both DK and FD. Prescott put up a line of 19/39, 287, 2:1 and added a 7-38-1 rushing line against Philadelphia. Prescott’s fantasy points of 28.28 ranked him 5th on both DK and FD. Prescott’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 48.5 points, with the Cowboys as -7 point road favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 25th in pass yards allowed (277.8), 31st in rush yards allowed (143.8), and 30th in points allowed (29.8) per game. The Browns’ defense allows the most (tied) pass TDs with 19 and rank 21st (tied) in sacks with 14. Cleveland’s defense also ranks 29th against QBs (20.44), 30th against RBs (24.93), 29th against WRs (27.19), and 30th against TEs (11.73) in fantasy points allowed.
Dak gets his turn against Cleveland, where he leads all QBs in rushing TDs (4) and this total is tied for the team lead with Ezekiel Elliott in red zone rushing TDs scored. The Cowboys’ offense should not have issues moving the ball in any fashion. The duel threat QB brings a solid floor with upside in a great draw along with a cheap price tag.
Jameis Winston (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Winston’s upcoming salary ranks him 10th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Winston put up a line of 16/32, 180, 2:0 and added a 3-16-0 rushing line against Oakland. Winston’s fantasy points of 18.8 ranked him 14th on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line with the Falcons currently has the game total at 51 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Bucs as +4 point home dogs on Thursday night.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 27th (tied) in pass yards allowed 285.4), 11th in rush yards allowed (93.9), and 29th in points allowed (28.9) per game. The Falcons’ defense allows the most pass TDs with 19. Atlanta’s defense also ranks last against QBs (22.24), 24th against RBs (20.95), 26th against WRs (26.6), and 28th against TEs (10.15) in fantasy points allowed. Aaron Rodgers went ham with a 28/38, 246, 4:0 line and added 6-60-0 on the ground at Atlanta for the second highest QB fantasy score (33.84) in week 8.
It is looking like Tampa Bay will be without both Jacquizz Rodgers and Doug Martin, leaving a committee of Antone Smith and Peyton Barber in the backfield. This potential downgrade does not hurt Winston’s current outlook. Winston ranks tied for 6th in red zone pass TDs (10) and he’ll get a sweet draw along with an implied positive game script.
Running Back
Charcandrick West (KC) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4400, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. West’s upcoming salary ranks him 26th/32nd on DK/FD, respectively. In relief duty for Spencer Ware (concussion), West put up a line of 14-52-0 and 2-8-0 on 3 targets at Indianapolis last week.
The Vegas line with the Jaguars currently has the game total at 44 points, with the Chiefs as -7.5 point home favorites (tied for widest spread on the board).
The Jaguars’ defense ranks 8th in pass yards allowed (224.6), 27th in rush yards allowed (124.7), and tied for 26th in points allowed (28.0) per game. The Jaguars’ defense allows the 7th (tied) most rushing TDs with 9. The Jaguars’ defense also ranks 18th against RBs (18.67) in fantasy points allowed. Jacksonville got lit up by DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry for a combined line of 37-183-2 and 4-42-0 on 7 targets last week.
Ware’s playing status is currently unknown as he is still in the concussion protocol. You can check out the NFL injury report later in the week for his updated status. If Ware is unable to play, West should operate as the every-down back with an implied positive game script. Nick Foles is starting for Alex Smith (concussion) which may not add to West’s potential outlook since Foles has the propensity for deeper looks than Smith. Last week, Foles averaged 10.1 yards per attempt as compared to Smith’s 6.7.
Update – Spencer Ware (concussion) has been ruled out. Recently signed Bishop Sankey is the only other RB currently on the roster. West will get the start.
Theo Riddick (DET) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6600. Riddick’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Riddick put up a line of 11-56-0 and 8-77-1 on 11 targets (team high) at Houston last week. Riddick’s fantasy points of 27.3/23.3 ranked him 2nd on both DK and FD. Riddick’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/2nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Vikings currently has the game total at 41 points, with the Lions as +6 point road dogs.
The Vikings’ defense ranks 3rd in pass yards allowed (204.6), 8th in rush yards allowed (92.6), and first in points allowed (14.9) per game. The Vikings’ defense ranks 23rd DVOA to RBs against the pass. For reference, Houston ranks 17th DVOA to RBs against the pass. The Vikings’ defense also ranks 13th against RBs (16.29) in fantasy points allowed. Minnesota gave up a line of 26-153-1 and 4-49-0 on 4 targets to Jordan Howard last week.
Riddick leads Detroit in red zone catches (7) and receiving TDs (4). The implied negative game script should not affect Riddick and his relative cheap price tag should have him returning decent value.
Wide Receiver
Corey Coleman (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Coleman’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/38th on DK/FD, respectively. In Coleman’s last game (week 2), he registered a line of 5-104-2 on 8 targets with Josh McCown starting that week.
The Vegas line with the Cowboys has the game total at 48.5 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Browns as +7 point home dogs (2nd widest spread on the board).
Dallas’ defense ranks 18th in pass yards allowed (255.9), 9th in rush yards allowed (92.9), 7th in points allowed (18.6) per game, and tied for 21st in sacks (14). Dallas’ defense also ranks 16th against QBs (16.38), 2nd against RBs (13.59), and 14th against WRs (22.86), and 24th against TEs (8.87) in fantasy points allowed.
The Dallas secondary lost CB Morris Claiborne (groin) and SS Barry Church (broken arm) last week and both are expected to miss multiple weeks, leaving this unit now very vulnerable. Coleman (hand) will make his return this week along with QB Cody Kessler (concussion) who is projected to start. The implied positive game script should force a pass-funnel offense for the Browns, giving Coleman upside at a dirt cheap price.
Michael Thomas (NO) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 30th/35th on DK/FD, respectively. Thomas put up a line of 6-63-0 on 6 targets against Seattle last week. Thomas’ fantasy points of 12.3/9.3 ranked him 34th/37th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the 49ers currently has the game total at 52 points (2nd highest on the board), with the Saints as -3.5 point road favorites.
San Francisco’s defense ranks 7th in pass yards allowed (222.4), last in rush yards allowed (185.1), and last in points allowed (31.4) per game. San Francisco’s defense ranks tied for 25th in pass TDs allowed (15) and sacks (13). San Francisco’s defense also ranks 21st against QBs (17.57) and 20th against WRs (25.57) in fantasy points allowed.
New Orleans’ offense ranks 1st in passing yards, (326.9), 25th in rushing yards (88.1), and 2nd in points scored (28.7) per game. Brandin Cooks and Thomas are basically the 1A and 1B receiving options in New Orleans. Thomas’ season to date stat line is 42-500-3 on 55 targets compared to Cooks’ 36-530-5 on 56 targets. The red zone looks for these two are nearly identical as well with Thomas having a line of 5-38-3 on 7 targets with Cooks’ line at 6-42-3 on 6 targets. Cooks’ DK salary of 7500 ranks him the 8th most expensive WR this week. Thomas is the obvious value play here.
San Francisco’s pass yards rankings are misleading as they are not a good pass defense, but more so that anyone can run against them. It will be a dealers-choice scenario for the Saints on how they attack the Niners.
Update – Starters CB Rashard Robinson (MCL) and OLB Aaron Lynch (ankle) and have been ruled out. Drew Brees and his receiving corps get a slight bump. The New Orleans’ spread has currently moved to -4.
Thomas has now appeared on the injury report as a limited practice participant with an ankle issue but he claims it is an illness. His situation just got murky and will require monitoring if considering playing him.
Tight End
Cameron Brate (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Brate’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Brate put up a line of 3-22-1 on 5 targets against Oakland. Brate’s fantasy points of 11.2/9.7 ranked him 12th/13th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Falcons currently has the game total at 51 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Bucs as +4 point home dogs.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 27th (tied) in pass yards allowed 285.4), and 29th in points allowed (28.9) per game. The Falcons’ defense allows the most pass TDs with 19. Atlanta’s defense also ranks last against QBs (22.24), and 28th against TEs (10.15) in fantasy points allowed.
WR Russell Shepard (hip) is doubtful this week, which should slightly add to Brate’s outlook along with what could potentially be a shootout with Atlanta. Brate is second on the team in red zone targets (7), catches (4), and TDs (3) behind Mike Evans. Brate has a solid matchup and provides a potential red zone threat for Jameis Winston.
Check out the Week 9 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 9 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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