NFL Week 8: October 26 – 30, 2017
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 8. With six teams on bye this week, the player pool be a little more scarce than usual.
Salary ranks are based on the full-slate.
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Updates will be made throughout the week as new info comes to light.
Quarterback
Tyrod Taylor (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7600. Taylor’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Taylor recorded a 20/33, 268, 1:0 line and 6-53-0 on the ground against the Bucs last week. Taylor’s fantasy points of 20.02 ranked him 11th/10th for QBs on DK/FD, respectively. Taylor’s price per point efficiency also ranked him 10th/9th on DK/FD for the position. Taylor ranks 3rd in rushing yards for QBs with 174 ground yards.
The betting lines with the Raiders has the game total at 45.5 points with the Bills as -2.5 point home favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Raiders are currently at 21.5 points.
Alex Smith dropped a 25/36, 342, 3:0 line at Oakland last week. Oakland ranks 20th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 31st in DVOA against the pass. Oakland also ranks 26th in pass yards allowed with 360.6/gm and 28th in total takeaways with 5.
Taylor brings a safe floor with a cheap price tag in a decent matchup. Taylor had 6 rushing TDs last season, but none yet this year, so positive regression should have him running one in sooner rather than later.
Kirk Cousins (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400, FanDuel (FD) – 7800. Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 9th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Cousins recorded a 30/40, 303, 3:1 line and 3-18-0 on the ground at Philadelphia last week. Cousins’ fantasy points of 27.92/24.92 ranked him 7th for QBs on both DK/FD. Cousins’ price per point efficiency also ranked him 8th/6th on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Cowboys has the game total at 50.5 points (highest on the board) with the Redskins as +2.5 point home dogs. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 24 points while the Cowboys are currently at 26.5 points.
C.J. Beathard posted a 22/38, 235, 0:0 line and 5-30-1 on the ground against the Cowboys last week. Dallas ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 20th in DVOA against the pass.
Cousins has averaged 27.53 DK fantasy points over his past four games. Washington may be without G Brandon Scherff this week, however, due to an MCL sprain suffered in week 7.
Update: Serious O-line injury situation – C Spencer Long (knee) and OT Ty Nsekhe (core) have been ruled out. G Tyler Catalaina (concussion), RT Morgan Moses (ankle), RG Brandon Scherff (mcl), and LT Trent Williams (knee) are all listed as questionable. Scherff and Williams did not practice this week. Downgrade Cousins accordingly.
Russell Wilson (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6500, FanDuel (FD) – 7900. Wilson’s upcoming salary ranks him 7th/6th on DK/FD, respectively. Wilson recorded a 27/39, 334, 3:0 line and 2-10-0 on the ground at the New York Giants last week. Wilson’s fantasy points of 29.36/26.36 ranked him 4th for QBs on both DK/FD. Wilson’s price per point efficiency also ranked him 5th/7th on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Texans has the game total at 45.5 points with the Seahawks as -5.5 point home favorites. The Seahawks’ implied team total is currently at 25.5 points while the Texans are currently at 20 points. The Texans are coming off a bye.
Houston ranks 18th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 7th in DVOA against the pass. After losing both JJ Watt and Whitney Mercilus in week 5, their statistical rankings should negatively shift. Wilson should be in a nice spot at home as the offense will need to rely on him to carry offensive production.
Running Back
Chris Thompson (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5800, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Thompson’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. Thompson put up a line of 7-38-0 and 5-26-1 on 5 targets against Washington last week. Thompson’s fantasy points of 17.4/14.9 ranked him 9th on both DK/FD for the position. Thompson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 11th on both DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Cowboys has the game total at 50.5 points (highest on the board) with the Redskins as +2.5 point home dogs. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 24 points while the Cowboys are currently at 26.5 points.
Dallas ranks 17th in fantasy points allowed to RBs, 31st in DVOA against the run, and 30th in DVOA against passing RBs.
Thompson leads Washington in rushing yards, receiving yards, and total touchdowns. Thompson should be a major part of the offense and is script-proof due to his multiple roles in a solid matchup with an under-priced cost.
Joe Mixon (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Mixon’s upcoming salary ranks him 27th/24th on DK/FD, respectively. Mixon put up a line of 7-48-0 and 3-20-0 on 3 targets against Washington last week. Mixon’s fantasy points of 9.8/8.3 ranked him 28th/29th on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Colts has the game total at 41.5 points with the Bengals as -10 point (2nd widest on the board) home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Colts are currently at 15.75 points.
Jacksonville backs combined for a 33-177-2 ground line and 4-57-0 on 4 targets. The Colts rank 29th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 21st in DVOA against the run. The Colts also rank 26th in rush yards allowed with 124.7/gm and last in points allowed with 31.7/gm.
Mixon out-touched Bernard/Hill 10 to 8, and out-produced them in yardage, 68 to 14. Most of Mixon’s production came in just the first half, when Lewis abandoned the successful run game in the second half.
LB John Simon (stinger) is on a week-to-week timetable and will miss this game. The ideal opportunity is right there, with a two possession implied lead and an ideal matchup. Given the opportunity, Mixon should crush his value price point.
Wide Receiver
Nelson Agholor (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 6000. Agholor’s upcoming salary ranks him 28th/32nd on DK/FD, respectively. Agholor put up a line of 4-45-1 on 5 targets against Washington last week. Agholor’s fantasy points of 14.5/12.5 ranked him 17th/19th on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the 49ers has the game total at 47.5 points with the Eagles as -13 point (widest on the board) home favorites. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 30.25 points while the 49ers are currently at 17.25 points.
San Francisco ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 29th in DVOA against the pass. San Francisco gave up an air line of 16/25, 234, 3:0 to Dak Prescott last week.
Agholor leads Eagle WRs in yards (366) and TDs (5). Agholor has scored in three straight games and this Sunday’s home matchup provides a great matchup opportunity to keep this streak going.
Brandon LaFell (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. LaFell’s upcoming salary ranks him 60th/85th on DK/FD, respectively. LaFell put up a line of 4-28-1 on 7 targets (team high) at Pittsburgh last week. LaFell’s fantasy points of 12.8/10.8 ranked him 21st/23rd on DK/FD for the position. LaFell’s price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/13th on DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Colts has the game total at 41.5 points with the Bengals as -10 point (2nd widest on the board) home favorites. The Bengals’ implied team total is currently at 25.75 points and the Colts are currently at 15.75 points.
The Colts rank 30th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and in DVOA against the pass. The Colts also rank 31st in pass yards allowed with 300.7/gm and last in points allowed with 31.7/gm. The Colts made Blake Bortles the 10th highest scoring QB last week (DK scoring). Just sayin’…
Adding insult to injury, FS first-round pick Malik Hooker (ACL/MCL) went down last week and is out for the season. LaFell delivered a reasonable performance against the top passing defense last week, and now gets the opposite scenario in a pristine matchup at a dirt cheap price.
Tight End
Cameron Brate (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Brate’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Brate put up a line of 6-60-0 on 9 targets (2nd highest on team) at Buffalo last week. Brate’s fantasy points of 12/9 ranked him 11th/14st on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Panthers has the game total at 44.5 points with the Bucs as -2 point home favorites. The Bucs’ implied team total is currently at 23.25 points and the Panthers are currently at 21.25 points.
Carolina ranks 11th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 17th in DVOA against TEs. Luke Kuechly (concussion) is still in the protocol so his availability is still unknown.
Brate ranks 1st in red zone targets, yards, and 2nd in TDs for tight ends. Brate also ranks 2nd in catches and tied for 1st in TDs on the team. Brate brings a value price tag and the matchup is nothing scary.
Kyle Rudolph (MIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Rudolph’s upcoming salary ranks him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Rudolph put up a line of 5-43-0 on 7 targets against Baltimore last week. Rudolph’s fantasy points of 9.3/6.8 ranked him 19th/21st on DK/FD for the position.
The betting lines with the Browns has the game total at 37.5 points with the Vikings as -9.5 point home favorites. The Vikings’ implied team total is currently at 23.5 points and the Browns are currently at 14 points.
Tennessee TEs combined for a 9-85-0 line last week at Cleveland. Cleveland ranks 30th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and DVOA against TEs. Rudolph is currently 2nd on the team in targets, catches, and receiving TDs. Rudolph also ranks 2nd (tied) in red zone catches. Cleveland’s defense is more pass-funnel and Rudolph, with a great matchup, should get enough opportunities to deliver value.
Jordan Reed (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 6100. Reed’s upcoming salary ranks him 6th on both DK/FD. Reed put up a line of 8-64-2 on 10 targets (highest on team) at Philadelphia last week. Reed’s fantasy points of 26.4/22.4 ranked him 2nd on both DK/FD for the position. Reed’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/2nd on DK/FD.
The betting lines with the Cowboys has the game total at 50.5 points (highest on the board) with the Redskins as +2.5 point home dogs. The Redskins’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Cowboys are currently at 26.5 points.
The Cowboys rank 8th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 31st in DVOA against TEs.
Reed leads Washington in targets (34) and catches (26). Kirk Cousins has mostly targeted TEs and RBs over WRs this season, and possibly missing to O-linemen may elevate this target distribution. Reed brings a reasonable price and has a solid matchup with blow up potential.
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