NFL Week 8: October 27th – 31st, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 8.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Jameis Winston (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Winston’s upcoming salary ranks him 19th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Winston put up a line of 21/30, 269, 3:1 for a passer rating of 117.2 at San Francisco. Winston’s fantasy points of 21.66 ranked him 7th/6th on DK/FD, respectively. Winston’s price per point efficiency ranked him 8th/5th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Raiders currently has the game total at 49.5 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Bucs as -1 point home favorites.
Oakland’s defense ranks last in pass yards allowed (302.1), 28th in rush yards allowed (128.3), and 22nd in points allowed (25.6) per game. The Raiders’ defense allows the 7th (tied) most pass TDs with 13 and rank 28th (tied) in sacks with 9. Oakland’s defense also ranks 26th against QBs (19.2), 24th against RBs (21.27), and 27th against WRs (26.74), and against TEs (9.66) in fantasy points allowed.
Tampa Bay’s offense should not have major issues moving the ball in any fashion. Winston ranks 7th in red zone pass TDs (8) and he’ll get a plus draw with a cheap price tag.
Derek Carr (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7800. Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th/8th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Carr put up a line of 23/37, 200, 1:0 for a passer rating of 85.4 at Jacksonville. Carr’s fantasy points of 12.4 ranked him 20th on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line with the Bucs currently has the game total at 49.5 points, with the Raiders as +1 point road dogs.
Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 13th in pass yards allowed (237.5), 20th in rush yards allowed (113.2), and 25th in points allowed (26.5) per game. The Bucs also rank 15th against QBs (16.57), 25th against RBs (22.33), and 16th against WRs (23.3) in fantasy points allowed.
The Raiders stayed in Florida after the Tampa Bay game so the west to east coast time zone issues are irrelevant here as Oakland looks to extend their undefeated streak on the road to five games. Carr ranks tied for 4th in red zone TDs with 9. Being priced in the bottom half for QBs this week, Carr should bring a safe floor with solid value.
Running Back
Devontae Booker (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Booker’s upcoming salary ranks him 36th/33rd on DK/FD, respectively. Booker put up a line of 17-83-1 and 1-4-0 on 2 targets against Houston last week. Booker’s fantasy points of 15.7/15.2 ranked him 18th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Booker’s price per point efficiency ranked him 11th/12th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Chargers currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Broncos as -5.5 point home favorites.
San Diego’s defense ranks 24th in pass yards allowed (276.3), 8th in rush yards allowed (90.1), and 25th in points allowed (26.4) per game. The Chargers’ defense ranks tied at 28th in rushing TDs allowed (9). San Diego’s defense also ranks 27th against RBs (23.33) in fantasy points allowed and 22nd in DVOA to RBs against the pass. San Diego allowed Devontae Freeman/Tevin Coleman a combined line of 23-122-1 and 6-52-0 on 7 targets last week.
Booker split the backfield workload evenly with C.J. Anderson last week, but Anderson’s current playing status likely has him out for an extended period of time, possibly the rest of the season with a bone bruise to his knee. Booker has been named the starter and his projected workload in a run-first offense elevates him to RB1 status in a favorable matchup with a positive game script this week.
Chris Thompson (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Thompson’s upcoming salary ranks him 36th/39th on DK/FD, respectively. Thompson put up a line of 12-73-0 and 7-40-0 on 7 targets (3rd highest on team) at Detroit last week. Thompson’s fantasy points of 18.3/14.8 ranked him 14th/17th on DK/FD, respectively. Thompson’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
Rob Kelley (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Kelley’s upcoming salary ranks him last/42nd on DK/FD, respectively. Kelley put up a line of 4-15-0 and 1-1-1 on one target at Detroit last week.
The Vegas line with the Bengals currently has the game total at 47 points, with the Redskins as +3 point dogs in London.
Cincinnati’s defense ranks 12th in pass yards allowed (236.1), 24th in rush yards allowed (118.4), and 18th in points allowed (23.1) per game. Cincinnati’s defense also ranks 12th against RBs (20.27) in fantasy points allowed and 26nd in DVOA to RBs against the pass.
Starter Matt Jones logged a measly 10-27-0 line with a lost fumble, leading to Thompson’s increased role last week. Jones missed Wednesday’s practice with knee pain, and HC Jay Gruden previously mentioned this week that Jones may lose time due to his constant fumbling issues.
Already the third-down back, the implied negative game script wouldn’t be relevant to Thompson, who gets a favorable matchup and comes at a cheap price. Kelley may potentially get the start in the two-down role if Jones is a no-go, but this could end up in a committee. Based on last week’s production, Thompson would appear to offer the higher floor here. Kelley could make for a potentially low-owned GPP punt play.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6600. Adams’ upcoming salary ranks him 34th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Adams put up a line of 13-132-2 on 16 targets (all team highs) against Chicago. Adams’ fantasy points of 41.2/31.7 ranked him 1st on both DK and FD. Adams’ price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK and FD, for the position.
Ty Montgomery (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5300, FanDuel (FD) – 6400 as RB. Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 29th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Montgomery’s position classification has been changed to RB on FD starting this week. Montgomery put up a line of 9-60-0 and 10-66-0 on 13 targets against Chicago. Montgomery’s fantasy points of 22.6/17.4 ranked him 13th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Montgomery’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/10th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Falcons has the game total at 53 points (highest on the board), with the Packers as +3 point road dogs
Atlanta’s defense ranks 31st in pass yards allowed (294.3), 9th in rush yards allowed (91.9), 27th in points allowed (28.4) per game, and 29th in pass TDs allowed (15). Atlanta’s defense also ranks 26th against RBs (23.21) and 17th against WRs (23.5) in fantasy points allowed. Atlanta comes in 17th in DVOA to WRs and 28th to RBs against the pass. Philip Rivers registered a line of 27/44, 371, 1:1 with a lost fumble in Atlanta last week.
Aaron Rodgers tossed up 56 pass attempts last week against Chicago and with Green Bay’s running game currently an unknown variable, this game has shootout potential for both sides. All Green Bay receivers have potential for ample targets.
Tight End
Gary Barnidge (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Barnidge’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/20th on DK/FD, respectively. Barnidge put up a line of 6-66-0 on 7 targets (all team highs) with Cody Kessler/Ryan Hogan under center at Cincinnati. Barnidge’s fantasy points of 12.6/9.6 ranked him 5th on both DK and FD. Barnidge’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/6th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Jets has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Browns as +3.5 point home dogs.
The Jets’ defense ranks 27th in pass yards allowed (282.7), 2nd in rush yards allowed (74.1), and 23rd in points allowed (25.7) per game. The Jets’ defense also ranks 21st against TEs (23.21) in fantasy points allowed and 24th in pass TDs allowed (13).
QB Josh McCown is tentatively projected to return this week, bumping up Barnidge’s value as McCown’s favorite target. Barnidge brings a safe floor in a positive script, solid matchup, and is priced in the TE2 range.
Jack Doyle (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 4900. Doyle’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/21st on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD. Doyle recorded a line of 9-78-1 on 10 targets (2nd on team) at Tennessee. Doyle’s fantasy points of 22.8/18.3 ranked him 1st on both DK and FD. Doyle’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st on both DK and FD, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Chiefs has the game total at 50 points (2nd highest on the board), with the Colts as +2.5 point home dogs.
The Chiefs’ defense ranks 14th in pass yards allowed (257.0), 21st in rush yards allowed (114.3), and 11th in points allowed (20.5) per game. The Chiefs’ defense also ranks 9th against TEs (4.53) in fantasy points allowed and 20th in pass TDs allowed (11).
Doyle ranks tied for first in red zone catches (7) and TDs (3) for TEs and leads Indianapolis in all red zone receiving categories. Doyle ranks second on the team in targets (33) and catches (29) and is tied with T.Y. Hilton for the lead with 4 TDs. Dwayne Allen (ankle) did not practice on Wednesday, and if he sits again, Doyle returns as the Colts’ top red zone threat. WR Donte Moncrief (shoulder) is expected to return this week, possibly cutting into Doyle’s workload, but the value price tag keeps him in play this week.
Check out the Week 8 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 8 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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