NFL Week 8: October 27th – 31st, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 8.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2700, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Arizona’s salary ranks them 15th/6th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Panthers at 48 points with the Cardinals as +3 point road dogs.
Arizona’s defense ranks 13th in rushing yards allowed (96.6), 3rd in passing yards allowed (193.0), and 5th in points allowed (15.7). Arizona ranks tied for 2nd in takeaways (14). Arizona also ranks 4th against QBs (12.27), 2nd against RBs (12.47), 8th against WRs (20.53), and 1st against TEs (2.64) in fantasy points allowed.
The Carolina offense ranks 7th in rush yards gained (121.0), 8th in pass yards gained (273.3), and 5th in points scored (26.8). Carolina ranks 2nd for most interceptions thrown (10) and giveaways (16). New Orleans registered two turnovers and two sacks against Carolina in week 6.
Arizona does head east for an early game while Carolina is coming off a bye, but Arizona’s defense has been solid with the 1-5 Panthers on the brink of a total meltdown.
Tennessee Titans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Tennessee’s salary ranks them 12th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Jaguars at 43.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Titans as -3.5 point home favorites.
Tennessee’s defense ranks 6th in rushing yards allowed (87.4), 18th in passing yards allowed (250.6), and 17th in points allowed (23.0). Tennessee ranks tied for 3rd in sacks (20) and tied for 7th in picks (6). Tennessee also ranks 11th against QBs (15.19), 9th against RBs (15.03), 10th against WRs (21.71), and 22nd against TEs (8.13) in fantasy points allowed.
The Jacksonville offense ranks 30th in rush yards gained (76.7), 17th in pass yards gained (247.3), and 24th in points scored (19.5). Jacksonville is tied for the 4th most interceptions thrown (9) and gave up 3 turnovers and a sack to the Raiders at home last week.
Blake Bortles ranks in the bottom six in passer rating (76.4), yards per attempt (6.64), and completion percentage (59.7). Bortles and co. are not benefiting from last season’s garbage time points to pad their stats, leaving them as just garbage. The matchup should force Jacksonville into a pass-funnel game, potentially leaving Tennessee’s defense with a one pick, two sack floor with upside.
New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. New England’s salary ranks them 4th/8th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Bills at 47.5 points with the Patriots as -6.5 point road favorites (widest spread on the board).
New England’s defense ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed (92.3), 20th in passing yards allowed (258.7), and 4th in points allowed (15.3). New England also ranks 17th against QBs (16.74), 8th against RBs (14.46), 10th against WRs (21.71), and 18th against TEs (7.21) in fantasy points allowed. The Buffalo offense ranks 2nd in rush yards gained (152.3), 31st in pass yards gained (175.1), and 6th in points scored (26.7).
New England catches an injury riddled Buffalo team likely missing their top two receivers in Robert Woods (foot) and Marquise Goodwin (concussion) as well as potentially their top offensive weapon LeSean McCoy (hamstring). An injured McCoy unwisely played last week, posting an ineffective 8-11-0 line against Miami. Buffalo’s offense managed a total of 67 rushing yards for a 3.0 avg. This basically leaves Tyrod Taylor with Charles Clay, and Mike Gillislee filling in for McCoy. New England’s defense shouldn’t have any issues dealing with just this, in what should be a pass-funnel, positive game script for them.
You can check the updated NFL injury report later in the week for the current playing status of the aforementioned.
New York Jets – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. New York’s salary ranks them 3rd/5th on DK/FD, respectively.
There currently is no Vegas line for this game due to the unknown circumstances of Cleveland’s QB situation. The Jets should be favored when the line comes out after the injury reports are filed.
The Jets defense ranks 2nd in rushing yards allowed (74.1), 27th in passing yards allowed (282.7), and 23rd in points allowed (25.7). The Jets also rank 23rd against QBs (18.1), 15th against RBs (16.09), 28th against WRs (27.14), and 21st against TEs (7.86) in fantasy points allowed. The Jets registered 3 turnovers and a sack against Baltimore last week while holding the Ravens to 6 total rushing yards on 12 carries.
Cleveland’s offense ranks in the bottom third in offensive statistics, except for rushing, where they rank in the top third in yards and TDs. It may be likely that Cleveland is forced to start their fourth string QB, someone named Kevin Hogan, who threw 2 picks and gave up 2 sacks in relief duty for Cody Kessler last week. Hogan did manage 104 rushing yards and a rush TD against Cincinnati. With their turn against Cleveland, the Jets should have an easier time this week.
Update -QB Josh McCown (collarbone) put in a full practice on Wednesday, giving him him a good shot to make the start. Cleveland’s offensive players would get an upgrade across the board. The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Jets at 43.5 points with the Browns as +3.5 point home dogs, but the line could change shortly.
Check out the Week 8 value player picks here.
Check out the Week 8 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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