NFL Week 7: October 20th – 24th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 7.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Brian Hoyer (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 6700. Hoyer’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/26th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD. Hoyer put up a line of 30/49, 302, 0:0 for a passer rating of 78.8 against Jacksonville last week. Hoyer’s fantasy points of 15.08/12.08 ranked him 18th/21st on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 46 points, with the Bears as +7.5 point road dogs.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 21st in pass yards allowed (266.6), 2nd in rush yards allowed (72.4), and 16th in points allowed (22.6). The Packers’ defense also ranks 23rd against QBs (17.84), last against WRs (28.74), 1st against RBs (11.08), and 25th against TEs (9.02) in fantasy points allowed. Green Bay gave up a line of 18/28, 247, 3:1, for a 117.4 passer rating to Dak Prescott last week in Lambeau.
Hoyer has posted 300+ yards in four straight games and has yet to throw a pick on the season. CB Sam Shields (concussion) has been placed on IR, and CBs Damarious Randall (groin) and Quinton Rollins (groin) have been ruled out for week 7, leaving Green Bay without their top three corners.
Hoyer has a choice matchup along with an implied positive game script. With Green Bay’s defensive strength coming against the run and basically not having any RBs to field, other than Knile Davis who joined the team yesterday, there is strong potential for a shootout scenario.
Kirk Cousins (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900, FanDuel (FD) – 7300. Cousins’ upcoming salary ranks him 17th/19th on DK/FD, respectively. Cousins posted a line of 18/34, 263, 2:1 for a passer rating of 85.8 against a tough Philadelphia defense. Cousins’ fantasy points of 18.32 ranked him 14th on both DK and FD. Cousins’ price per point efficiency ranked him 16th on both DK and FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Lions has the game total at 49.5 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Redskins as +1.5 point road dogs.
Detroit’s defense ranks 23rd in pass yards allowed (271.3), 21st in rush yards allowed (108.3), and 22nd in points allowed (25.5). Detroit has given up the most passing TDs (17) and allow the highest passer rating (119.3) to opposing QBs in the league. The Lions’ defense also ranks last against QBs (24.11), 28th against WRs (27.43), 7th against RBs (14.48), and 30th against TEs (12.88) in fantasy points allowed. Detroit gave up a line of 27/32, 321, 3:1 for a 126.7 passer rating to frickin’ Case Keenum last week at home.
TE Jordan Reed (concussion) did participate in Wednesday’s practice so his outlook in returning is looking up. Cousins’ has a solid matchup with an implied positive game script in a game with shootout potential.
Andy Dalton (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 8100. Dalton’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/8th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Dalton put up a line of 21/31, 254, 1:0 for a passer rating of 103.4 and 2-17-1 on the ground at New England. Dalton’s fantasy points of 21.86 ranked him 11th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Dalton’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 45.5 points, with the Bengals as -9.5 point home favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (285.3), 27th in rush yards allowed (118.0), and 29th in points allowed (29.3) per game. The Browns’ defense allows the 2nd most pass TDs with 16 and rank in the bottom-third in sacks with 9. Cleveland’s defense also ranks 30th against QBs (21.46), 11th against RBs (20.08), 20th against WRs (25.58), and last against TEs (15.37) in fantasy points allowed. Cleveland gave up a line of 17/24, 284, 3:1 for a 132.6 passer rating and 7-64-0 on the ground to Marcus Mariota last week.
Dalton gets his turn against Cleveland with a solid matchup despite the implied negative game script, and comes with a very reasonable price tag.
Marcus Mariota (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6000, FanDuel (FD) – 7900. Mariota’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Mariota recorded a line 17/24, 284, 3:1 for a 132.6 passer rating and 7-64-0 on the ground against Cleveland last week. Mariota’s fantasy points of 28.76 ranked him 6th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively. Mariota’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Colts currently has the game total at 48 points, with the Titans as -2.5 point home favorites.
Indianapolis’ defense ranks 29th in passing yards allowed (293.5), 25th in rushing yards allowed (117.7), and 28th in points allowed (29.0) per game. The Colts’ defense ranks 28th in sacks (8) and 29th in picks (2). The Colts’ defense also ranks 24th against QBs (19.12), 31st against RBs (25.75), 7th against WRs (20.63), and 22nd against TEs (8.05) in fantasy points allowed. Brock Osweiler had his only game of the season with a passer rating above 90 against the Colts last week.
Mariota has been running hot the past two weeks and the duel threat QB can potentially keep that streak going with a favorable matchup along with a very reasonable price tag.
Running Back
Jacquizz Rodgers (TB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Rodgers’ upcoming salary ranks him 28th/35th on DK/FD, respectively. In week 5 duty (week 6 bye), Rodgers put up a line of 30-101-0 and 5-28-0 on 6 targets at Carolina. Rodgers’ fantasy points of 20.9/15.4 ranked him 10th/14th on DK/FD, respectively. Rodgers’ price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/9th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Niners has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Bucs as -2 point road favorites.
The 49ers’ defense ranks last in rushing yards allowed (174.3), 7th in passing yards allowed (215.5), and 31st in points allowed (30.8) and rushing TDs allowed (9). The 49ers’ defense also ranks 30th against RBs in fantasy points allowed. The 49ers gave up a line of 19-140-3 to LeSean McCoy and a combined line of 13-87-1 with one lost fumble to RBs not named LeSean McCoy in Buffalo last week.
Doug Martin (hamstring) has been ruled out, leaving Rodgers with the every-down back role once again in this week’s best RB matchup.
Giovani Bernard (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4800, FanDuel (FD) – 6300. Bernard’s upcoming salary ranks him 22nd/27th on DK/FD, respectively. Bernard put up a line of 15-49-0 and 4-45-0 on 5 targets at New England last week. Bernard’s fantasy points of 13.4/11.4 ranked him 17th/19th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 45.5 points, with the Bengals as -9.5 point home favorites (widest spread on the board).
Cleveland’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (285.3), 27th in rush yards allowed (118.0), and 29th in points allowed (29.3) per game. The Browns’ defense is a middling unit in rushing TDs allowed (5). Cleveland’s defense also ranks 11th against RBs in fantasy points allowed and 18th in DVOA to RBs against the pass. Cleveland allowed DeMarco Murray/Derrick Henry a combined line of 23-72-1 and Marcus Mariota a line of 7-64-0 last week.
Gio out-touched Jeremy Hill 19 to 14 and outgained him 94 to 41 in scrimmage yards. Look for Gio to maintain his lead in touches for the Bengals in a more favorable matchup with a positive game script this week.
Wide Receiver
Ty Montgomery (GB) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Montgomery’s upcoming salary ranks him 81st/54th on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on DK. Montgomery put up a line of 10-98-0 on 12 targets (targets/catches/yards all team highs) and 3-6-0 on the ground with one lost fumble against Dallas. Montgomery’s fantasy points of 19.4/13.4 ranked him 12th/17th on DK/FD, respectively. Montgomery’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th/10th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Bears has the game total at 46 points, with the Packers as -7.5 point home favorites. Chicago’s defense ranks 10th in pass yards allowed (233.5) and 19th in points allowed (23.8). The Bears’ defense also ranks 19th against WRs (25.27) in fantasy points allowed.
Green Bay finds itself in an unusually precarious situation this week as both their top two RBs (Eddie Lacey, James Starks) are out and having to trade for Kansas City RB Knile Davis yesterday. Montgomery had 3 carries to Lacey’s 17 while Lacey was hurting with apparently serious ankle issues. Montgomery could potentially see his backfield snaps drastically increase as well as lining up anywhere in the formation.
With WR Davante Adams (concussion) questionable and uncertain to play on the short week, out of sheer lack of bodies, Montgomery could see a heavy workload where the implied game script may get rendered irrelevant.
Cameron Meredith (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4700, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Meredith’s upcoming salary ranks him 39th/43rd on DK/FD, respectively. Meredith put up a line of 11-113-0 on 15 targets (targets/catches/yards all team highs) against Jacksonville. Meredith’s fantasy points of 25.3/16.8 ranked him 9th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Meredith’s price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/8th on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 46 points, with the Bears as +7.5 point road dogs.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 21st in pass yards allowed (266.6), 2nd in rush yards allowed (72.4), and 16th in points allowed (22.6). The Packers’ defense also ranks 23rd against QBs (17.84), last against WRs (28.74), and 1st against RBs (11.08) in fantasy points allowed.
With Green Bay’s secondary woes previously mentioned above, and with WR Eddie Royal (toe) ruled out with his previous week line of 4-54-0 on 6 targets also freed up, Meredith is sitting on a prime scenario to go along with a positive game script. This game has the potential for a huge pass-to-run ratio for both sides.
Tight End
Charles Clay (BUF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Clay’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. Clay put up a line of 5-52-0 on 7 targets (targets/catches/yards all team highs) against San Francisco. Clay’s fantasy points of 10.2/7.7 ranked him 14th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Dolphins currently has the game total at 44 points, with the Bills as -3 point road favorites.
Miami’s defense ranks 13th in pass yards allowed (236.7), 31st in rush yards allowed (147.0), and 15th in points allowed (22.3). The Dolphins’ defense also ranks 23rd against TEs (8.37) in fantasy points allowed and 18th in DVOA against TEs.
Clay leads the Bills in red zone targets (4), receptions (2), and yards (19) but has yet to score. In regards to the 5 yard TD pass to Robert Woods, on listening to Rex Ryan’s mic, that play was supposed to be a fade to Clay on the first read. He’s due. Clay remains the top receiving value in Buffalo and potentially brings a solid floor for a cheap price.
Hunter Henry (SD) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Henry’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Henry put up a line of 6-83-1 on 8 targets (all team highs) against Denver. Henry’s fantasy points of 20.3/17.3 ranked him 4th on both DK and FD. Henry’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4h/3rd on DK/FD, respectively, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Falcons currently has the game total at 53.5 points (highest on the board), with the Chargers as +6.5 point road dogs.
Atlanta’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (285.3) and in points allowed (27.7). The Falcons’ defense also ranks 29th against TEs (12.63) in fantasy points allowed and 22nd in DVOA against TEs.
Henry is the 2nd highest scoring TE the past four weeks (DK scoring), behind only Greg Olsen. Look for his production to continue in this favorable matchup with a positive game script.
Check out the Week 7 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 7 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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