NFL Week 7: October 20th – 24th, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 7. These defenses were value targeted mostly outside the top five chalk defenses for this week.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Tennessee Titans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Tennessee’s salary ranks them 20th/8th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Colts at 48.5 points with the Titans as -2.5 point home favorites.
Tennessee’s defense ranks 7th in rushing yards allowed (88.5), 11th in passing yards allowed (235.5), and 12th in points allowed (21.2). Tennessee ranks 5th in sacks (18) and tied for 6th in picks (6). Tennessee also ranks 5th against QBs (13.09), 8th against RBs (14.78), 9th against WRs (21.27), and 14th against TEs (6.33) in fantasy points allowed. Tennessee registered 6 sacks against Cleveland last week.
The Indianapolis offense leads the league in sacks given up (23), but rank 7th in points scored (26.7). The Colts offense ranks 13th in yards gained (364.2). The last place Colts (2-4) are winless in the division and Tennessee has a good shot to keep that streak going and comes with a cheap DK price tag.
Baltimore Ravens – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. Baltimore’s salary ranks them 12th/4th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Jets at 41.5 points (3rd lowest on the board) with the Ravens in a pick ‘em spread game on the road.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 1st in rush yards allowed (69.7), 9th in pass yards allowed (225.2), 9th in points allowed (19.2), and 3rd in picks (8). Baltimore’s defense also ranks 12th against QBs (15.26), 2nd against RBs (11.6), 29th against WRs (27.53), and 5th against TEs (4.2) in fantasy points allowed. Baltimore registered 3 turnovers and a sack against the Giants last week.
The Jets’ offense ranks in the bottom third for passing and rushing yards and dead last in points scored (15.8). These are Ryan Fitzpatrick’s current QB ranks through week 6: TDs (5) – tied for 27th, interceptions (11) – 1st, yards per attempt (6.46) – tied for 26th, passer rating (63.4) – 31st.
Fitzpatrick was pulled in the 4th quarter for Geno Smith who then got sacked and threw a pick on 6 attempts for a passer rating of 39.6. Fitz is tentatively set to start, but it won’t matter who ends up taking snaps for the hot mess, cellar-holding Jets (1-5), as Baltimore gets to face perhaps the most dysfunctional offense in the league.
Update – QB Geno Smith has been announced as the starter.
New England Patriots – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. New England’s salary ranks them 11th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Steelers at 45.5 points with the Patriots as -7 point road favorites.
New England’s defense ranks 9th in rushing yards allowed (92.0), 18th in passing yards allowed (255.0), 2nd in points allowed (15.2), and 5th against RBs (17.32) in fantasy points allowed. New England catches a huge break as Ben Roethlisberger (knee) will miss this game with Landry Jones filling in, which is a tremendous downgrade at the position.
Philadelphia Eagles – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. Philadelphia’s salary ranks them 8th/14th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Vikings at 40 points (lowest on the board) with the Eagles as +2.5 point home dogs.
Philadelphia’s defense ranks 4th in passing yards allowed (207.4), 18th in rushing yards allowed (104.6), and 3rd in points allowed (15.6). Philadelphia also ranks 1st against QBs (11.56), 4th against WRs (19.56), 18th against RBs (18.18), and 2nd against TEs (3.06) in fantasy points allowed.
Minnesota ranks 24th in passing yards (232.0), last in rushing yards (70.6), and 14th in points scored (23.8). The point average is skewed by 4 DST TDs, however. This game projects to be a low scoring, defensive slugfest. Philadelphia is coming off a week with two DST TDs and was the top scoring DST with 14 points at Washington.
Check out the Week 7 DFS value player picks here.
Check out the Week 7 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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