NFL Week 14: December 8th – 12th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 14.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Trevor Siemian (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5100, FanDuel (FD) – 7000. Siemian’s upcoming salary ranks him 26th/23rd on DK/FD, respectively. Siemian (foot) put up a line of 20/34, 368, 3:0 and 5-23-0 on the ground against Kansas City in week 12, his last game played. Siemian’s fantasy points of 32.02/29.02 ranked him 4th on both DK and FD that week.
The Vegas line with the Titans currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Broncos as +1 point road dogs.
Tennessee’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (270.3), 7th in rush yards allowed (92.3), and 21st in points allowed (24.7) per game. The Titans’ defense ranks 20th (tied) in takeaways with 13 and 7th in sacks with 30. The Titans’ defense also ranks 27th against QBs (18.49), 10th against RBs (15.83), 29th against WRs (26.12), and 18th against TEs (7.53) in fantasy points allowed. Matt Barkley went 28/54, 316, 3:2 against Tennessee in week 12.
Denver’s offense ranks 24th in passing yards gained (226.3), 23rd in rushing yards gained (100.2), and 13th in points scored (23.8). Denver also ranks 19th (tied) in interceptions throw with 8 and 6th in most sacks allowed (33).
Siemian (foot) looks like he’s on track to return this week, which would make him a solid upgrade over Paxton Lynch and the Denver offensive skill players across the board. This matchup should potentially feature Siemian as the primary focus of offense, as Denver’s underwhelming ground game gets the tough matchup. The good matchup this week could give Siemian a safe 16 point floor and his cheap salary allows for a much easier roster construction.
Update – Local reports have Siemian getting the start.
Andy Dalton (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Dalton’s upcoming salary ranks him 15th on both DK/FD. Dalton put up a line of 23/31, 332, 2:0 and 2-9-0 on the ground against Philadelphia last week. Dalton’s fantasy points of 25.18/22.18 ranked him 5th on both DK/FD. Dalton’s price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd/4th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 43 points, with the Bengals as -5.5 point road favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 21st in pass yards allowed (259.4), 31st in rush yards allowed (140.6), and 31st in points allowed (29.3) per game. The Browns’ defense ranks 26th (tied) in takeaways with 11 and last in sacks with 17. Cleveland’s defense also ranks 31st against QBs (19.8), 31st against RBs (23.31), 30th against WRs (26.79), and 29th against TEs (10.57) in fantasy points allowed. Eli Manning registered a line of 15/27, 194, 3:0 for a 115.4 passer rating at Cleveland in week 12.
Cincinnati’s offense ranks 7th in passing yards gained (265.6), 14th in rushing yards gained (106.4), and 23rd (tied) in points scored (20.4). Cincinnati throws the 8th (tied) fewest interceptions (6) and gives up the 7th most sacks with 32. Dalton scored over 23 fantasy points (DK scoring) against Cleveland in week 7.
Dalton and co. get a great matchup this week, and pairing him with Tyler Eifert would make for a solid stack. The one potential adverse issue with this game, however, is that the current weather projection calls for 1-3 inches of snow fall in Cleveland. Welcome to December football.
Running Back
Thomas Rawls (SEA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Rawls’ upcoming salary ranks him 14th/21st on DK/FD, respectively. Rawls put up a line of 15-106-2 and 1-12-0 on 1 target against Carolina last week. Rawls’ fantasy points of 27.8/24.3 ranked him 4th on both DK and FD. Rawls’ price per point efficiency ranked him 5th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Seahawks as -3 point road favorites.
The Packers’ defense ranks 17th in pass yards allowed (254.3), 9th in rush yards allowed (92.9), and 23rd in points allowed (25.2) per game. The Packers’ defense ranks 25th in takeaways with 12 and 7th (tied) in sacks with 30. The Packers’ defense also ranks 7th against running backs (15.26) in fantasy points allowed and 7th in DVOA to opposing backs against the pass. Green Bay gave up a 4.6 avg. to Houston ground attempts last week.
Seattle’s offense ranks 14th in passing yards gained (256.4), 20th in rushing yards gained (101.5), and 20th in points scored (22.0).
Rawls looked explosive last week and basically put up his stat line in the first half, as he was in the concussion protocol in the second half but ultimately returned to the game. Rawls should potentially be a major factor as Green Bay’s defense takes another hit with OLB Nick Perry (hand) possibly missing the rest of the season, and Clay Matthews (shoulder) not at 100%, possibly limiting his snap counts. The weather currently projects snowfall at about 1” at Lambeau.
Latavius Murray (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Murray’s upcoming salary ranks him 21st/18th on DK/FD, respectively. Murray put up a line of 20-82-2 and 3-23-1 on 5 targets against Buffalo last week. Murray’s fantasy points of 25.5/24 ranked him 7th/5th on DK/FD, respectively. Murray’s price per point efficiency ranked him 4th on both DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Chiefs currently has the game total at 46 points, with the Raiders as +3 point road dogs on Thursday night.
Kansas City’s defense ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed (263.0), 27th in rush yards allowed (124.8), and 9th in points allowed (20.2) per game. Kansas City’s defense also ranks 16th against RBs (17.35) in fantasy points allowed and 13th in DVOA to opposing backs against the pass. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman combined for a line of 27-105-2 and 4-49-0 on 7 targets last week.
Oakland’s offense ranks 4th in passing yards gained (277.1), 7th in rushing yards gained (114.6), and 3rd in points scored (28.8).
Murray is 3rd in the league (tied with David Johnson) with 11 rushing TDs and ranks 2nd (tied) in red zone rushing TDs with 10. Murray has scored six times in his past five games since returning from injury. What was once a committee in Oakland’s backfield is no longer the case as Murray has emerged as the lead dog, with Jalen Richard working as the change-of-pace back. Murray’s snaps, touches, and receiving routes have all been trending upward, and at his current price tag, should potentially return a nice value with a 20+ touch workload.
Update – G Keleche Osemele (illness) is a late scratch. Ouch. Losing one of the league’s elite guards on that formidable left side is going to hurt.
Wide Receiver
Malcolm Mitchell (NE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Mitchell’s upcoming salary ranks him 55th/31st on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better relative value on DK. Mitchell put up a line of 8-82-0 on 10 targets (2nd on team behind Edelman) against the Rams last week. Mitchell’s fantasy points of 16.2/12.2 ranked him 16th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively. Mitchell’s price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Ravens currently has the game total at 45.5 points, with the Patriots as -7 point home favorites.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 7th in pass yards allowed (222.3), 1st in rush yards allowed (73.8), and 2nd (tied) in points allowed (17.3) per game. Baltimore’s defense also ranks 7th against QBs (14.79), 26th against WRs (25.09), 1st against RBs (12.51), and 2nd against TEs (4.43) in fantasy points allowed.
New England’s offense ranks 5th in passing yards gained (270.3), 6th in rushing yards gained (117.3), and 6th in points scored (26.6).
Mitchell’s targets and receptions have increased in each of the past three games and he has scored three TDs in the same span. With Rob Gronkowski out, New England has run more 3-wide sets and Mitchell’s snap percentage spiked to 85% last week. Mitchell has emerged as Tom Brady’s #2 air target.
Adversely for Mitchell’s outlook, New England faces one of the toughest defenses, and Monday night’s weather forecast projects a mix of rain and snow in Foxboro. However, Mitchell’s cheap price tag is hard to ignore and his involvement in the offense is for real.
Emmanuel Sanders (DEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 5900. Sanders’ upcoming salary ranks him 26th/41st on DK/FD, respectively, making him a much better value on FD. In Sanders last game with Trevor Siemian under center, he put up a line of 7-162-1 on 10 targets against Kansas City in week 12. Siemian is expected to return this week.
The Vegas line with the Titans currently has the game total at 43.5 points, with the Broncos as +1 point road dogs.
Tennessee’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (270.3), and 21st in points allowed (24.7) per game. The Titans’ defense also ranks 29th against WRs (26.12) in fantasy points allowed.
Sanders will have a positive matchup and should be heavily involved in a pass-heavy game script. His low salary cost for a WR1A/B could potentially return a decent value with a solid floor.
Tight End
Ladarius Green (PIT) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Green’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Green put up a line of 6-110-1 on 11 targets (all team highs) against the Giants last week. Green’s fantasy points of 26/20 ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD. Green’s price per point efficiency also ranked him 3rd on both DK/FD, for the position.
The Vegas line with the Bills currently has the game total at 47 points, with the Steelers as -2 point road favorites.
Buffalo’s defense ranks 14th against TEs (6.72) in fantasy points allowed and 26th in DVOA against TEs. Oakland TEs combined for a line of 4-75-0 on 8 targets last week.
Green has seen a steady increase in snap percentage to possibly become Pittsburgh’s third receiving option behind Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell. His bottom end TE1 price and big upside makes him a solid value investment.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3900, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Fiedorowicz’s upcoming salary ranks him 11th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Fiedorowicz put up a line of 6-44-0 on 9 targets (team high) at Green Bay last week. Fiedorowicz’s fantasy points of 10.4/7.4 ranked him 11th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line with the Colts currently has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Texans as +6 point road dogs.
The Colts defense ranks 25th against TEs (8.64) in fantasy points allowed and last in DVOA against TEs.
Fiedorowicz gets a good matchup, game script, and provides Houston with perhaps its most reliable offensive weapon. His price makes for a potentially viable pivot off of the top tier TE plays like Tyler Eifert and Travis Kelce.
Check out the Week 14 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 14 schedule with current spreads/totals here.
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