NFL Week 12: November 24th – 28th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 12.
The two early Thursday games (Minnesota @ Detroit, Washington @ Dallas) are excluded from the salary rankings as these games are not included in this week’s full slate on either DraftKings or FanDuel. These games are available on separate Thursday slates.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Derek Carr (OAK) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7900. Carr’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Carr put up a line of 21/31, 295, 3:1 against Houston last week. Carr’s fantasy points of 22.6 ranked him 6th on both DK and FD. Carr’s price per point efficiency ranked him 9th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Panthers currently has the game total at 49 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Raiders as -3 point home favorites.
Carolina’s defense ranks 27th in pass yards allowed (271.7), 2nd in rush yards allowed (81.8), and 22nd in points allowed (24.6) per game. The Panthers’ defense ranks 12th (tied) in takeaways with 14 and 3rd (tied) in sacks with 30. Carolina’s defense also ranks 24th against QBs (18.41), 3rd against RBs (14.42), 24th against WRs (25.07), and 30th against TEs (11.09) in fantasy points allowed. Drew Brees went 35/44, 285, 2:1 for a 99.3 passer rating at Carolina last week.
Oakland’s offense ranks 4th in passing yards gained (275.5), 9th in rushing yards gained (118.0), and 5th in points scored (27.2). Oakland also ranks 3rd in turnover differential at +10, 1st in fewest sacks allowed (11), and 5th (tied) in fewest interceptions thrown (4).
Carr gets a solid matchup at home in what potentially may be a pass-funnel scenario for Oakland. Carr brings a solid floor with upside this week.
Colin Kaepernick (SF) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 7200. Kaepernick’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Kaepernick put up a line of 16/30, 206, 2:0 and 4-32-0 on the ground against New England last week. Kaepernick’s fantasy points of 19.44 ranked him 11th/10th on DK/FD, respectively. Kaepernick’s price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/9th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Dolphins currently has the game total at 44.5 points, with the 49ers as +7.5 point (tied for 2nd widest on the board) road dogs.
Miami’s defense ranks 8th in pass yards allowed (224.5), 30th in rush yards allowed (126.1), and 15th in points allowed (21.6) per game. The Dolphins’ defense ranks 14th (tied) in takeaways with 13 and 12th (tied) in sacks with 23. Miami’s defense also ranks 13th against QBs (16.13), 8th against RBs (15.58), 19th against WRs (24.23), and 16th against TEs (7.28) in fantasy points allowed.
San Francisco’s offense ranks 31st in passing yards gained (189.8), 5th in rushing yards gained (119.8), and 23rd (tied) in points scored (20.4).
Kaepernick has averaged 23.52 points in his previous three games and leads all QBs with 43.3 rush yards per game for the season. The dual-threat QB brings a safe floor and has an implied positive game script which potentially should keep his opportunities high throughout the game.
Running Back
Frank Gore (IND) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5200, FanDuel (FD) – 6500. Gore’s upcoming salary ranks him 20th/19th on DK/FD, respectively. Gore put up a line of 18-50-0 and 4-71-0 on 4 targets against Tennessee last week. Gore’s fantasy points of 16.1/14.1 ranked him 13th/12th on DK/FD, respectively. Gore’s price per point efficiency ranked him 13th/14th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Steelers currently has the game total at 48 points, with the Colts as +8.5 point home dogs.
The Steelers’ defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed (267.9), 9th in rush yards allowed (95.7), and 12th (tied) in points allowed (21.5) per game. The Steelers’ defense ranks 17th (tied) in takeaways with 12 and 16th (tied) in sacks with 21. The Steelers’ defense also ranks 30th against RBs (22.71) in fantasy points allowed and 16th in DVOA to RBs against the pass.
Scott Tolzien will get the start for Andrew Luck (concussion) and WR Donte Moncrief (hamstring) has been added to the injury report as Questionable. Moncrief may end up being a game-time decision. Moncrief leads the Colts with four red zone receiving TDs, while Gore leads the team with seven total red zone TDs. The implied negative game script for Gore should not have a major effect on him as he should be heavily relied upon by Tolzien regardless, in both run and passing scenarios.
Wendell Smallwood (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 6200. Crowell’s upcoming salary ranks him 35th/28th on DK/FD, respectively. Smallwood put up a line of 13-48-0 and 4-31-0 on 5 targets at Seattle last week in relief duty.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 47.5 points, with the Eagles as -4 point home favorites on Monday night.
The Packers’ defense ranks 23rd in pass yards allowed (265.6), 6th in rush yards allowed (91.1), and 27th in points allowed (27.6) per game. The Packers’ defense ranks 23rd (tied) in takeaways with 10 and 10th (tied) in sacks with 24. The Packers’ defense also ranks 18th against RBs (17.18) in fantasy points allowed. Fat Rob dropped a line of 24-137-3 with a 5.7 average against the Packers last week.
Philadelphia’s offense ranks 25th in passing yards gained (222.1), 6th (tied) in rushing yards gained (118.3), and 13th in points scored (24.1). Philly also ranks 11th in rushing TDs scored.
Green Bay has given up an average of 38.25 points over the past four games and remains an enticing target for offenses. Ryan Mathews (MCL sprain) and Darren Sproles (broken rib) suffered injuries last week and neither has practiced yet this week. If neither can go, Smallwood should be involved on all three downs with a solid matchup. Adding the implied positive game script and his cheap price tag, Smallwood should provide a safe value floor.
Update – Sproles got in a full practice on Thursday but Mathews did not. Mathews has been ruled out and Sproles is expected to play. Sproles should see his usual third-down snap counts with Smallwood expected to work on the early downs.
Rashad Jennings (NYG) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5600, FanDuel (FD) – 6600. Jennings’ upcoming salary ranks him 14th/17th on DK/FD, respectively. Jennings put up a line of 21-85-1 and 5-33-0 on 6 targets against Chicago last week. Jennings’ fantasy points of 23.9/21.4 ranked him 4th/12th on both DK and FD. Jennings’ price per point efficiency ranked him 2nd on both DK and FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 44 points, with the Giants as -7 point road favorites.
The Browns’ defense ranks 31st in rush yards allowed (143.9), 22nd in pass yards allowed (265.5), and 31st in points allowed (29.5) per game. The Browns’ defense ranks 23rd (tied) in takeaways with 10 and 31st in sacks with 16. The Browns’ defense also ranks 31st against RBs (24.68) in fantasy points allowed and 19th in DVOA to RBs against the pass. Le’Veon Bell dropped a line of 28-146-1 and 8-55-0 in the air against the Browns last week.
Jennings gets his turn against Cleveland in the second best running back matchup available this week. Jennings has surpassed 100+ scrimmage yards the past two games against tougher run-defenses and should be able to safely match that output in this cakewalk.
Wide Receiver
Tyler Boyd (CIN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Boyd’s upcoming salary ranks him 54th/43rd on DK/FD, respectively. Boyd put up a line of 6-54-1(all team highs) on 8 targets against Buffalo last week. Boyd’s fantasy points of 17.4/14.4 ranked him 13th on both DK and FD. Boyd’s price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/4th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Ravens currently has the game total at 40.5 points (2nd lowest on the board), with the Bengals as +4 point road dogs.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 7th in pass yards allowed (219.1), 1st in rush yards allowed (76.0), and 5th (tied) in points allowed (18.7) per game. Baltimore’s defense also ranks 29th against WRs (26.8), 1st (tied) against RBs (12.7), and 2nd against TEs (3.53) in fantasy points allowed.
The Bengals offensive skill positions got decimated with the injury bug last week as WR1 A.J. Green (hamstring) and RB Gio Bernard (ACL tear) are both out. WR Brandon LaFell missed Wednesday’s practice with a knee issue as well. Green and Bernard account for 41.9% of team targets, 45.1% of team receptions, and 45.5% of team receiving TDs, leaving a massive hole of production to account for. Adding to this scenario that TE Tyler Eifert and RB Jeremy Hill have awful matchups, and the possibility that LaFell may be limited or out, Boyd is left as the only viable play with a positive matchup, implied game script, and snap opportunity as a starter, with a dirt-cheap price tag.
Update – LaFell put in a full practice on Thursday and is expected to start.
Jordan Matthews (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5000, FanDuel (FD) – 5600. Matthews’ upcoming salary ranks him 34th/43rd on DK/FD, respectively. Matthews put up a line of 5-59-0 on 10 targets (2nd on team) at Seattle last week.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 47.5 points, with the Eagles as -4 point home favorites on Monday night.
The Packers’ defense ranks 23rd in pass yards allowed (265.6) and 27th in points allowed (27.6) per game. The Packers’ defense also ranks 23rd against QBs (18.34) and last against WRs (28.43) in fantasy points allowed. Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder both exceeded 100+ receiving yards and each also had a receiving TD against this unit last week.
Matthews has been Carson Wentz’ weekly target hog, and the possible loss of Darren Sproles (broken rib), who ranked third in team receptions, only opens the door for more target opportunities. This game has shootout potential, and Matthews will likely be Philly’s main beneficiary in a great matchup along with a cheap cost.
Tight End
Zach Ertz (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5000. Ertz’ upcoming salary ranks him 9th/15th on DK/FD, respectively. Ertz put up a line of 6-35-1 on 11 targets (team high) at Seattle last week. Ertz’ fantasy points of 15.5/12.5 ranked him 4th/5th on DK/FD, respectively. Ertz’ price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd on both DK and FD, respectively for the position.
The Packers’ defense ranks 27th against TEs (9.66) in fantasy points allowed. Jordan Reed recorded a 5-79-0 line against them last week. With the possible losses of Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles, the emphasis on the pass game could see a bump, making Eagle receiving options with positive matchups solid plays this week.
C.J. Fiedorowicz (HOU) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3300, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Fiedorowicz’ upcoming salary ranks him 11th/13th on DK/FD, respectively. Fiedorowicz put up a line of 6-82-0 on 10 targets (team high) against Oakland last week. Fiedorowicz’ fantasy points of 14.2/11.2 ranked him 6th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Fiedorowicz’ price per point efficiency ranked him 6th/8th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Chargers currently has the game total at 46.5 points, with the Texans as +1.5 point home dogs.
San Diego’s defense ranks 12th against TEs (6.79) in fantasy points allowed. Fiedorowicz is averaging 7.3 targets, 4.8 catches, and 55.3 yards per game over the previous six games. It turns out that he is the one target Brock Osweiler can hit. He should be a safe floor/limited ceiling option this week.
Check out the Week 12 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 12 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
Submit your review | |
