NFL Week 12: November 24th – 28th, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 12.
The two early Thursday games (Minnesota @ Detroit, Washington @ Dallas) are excluded from the salary rankings as these games are not included in this week’s full slate on either DraftKings or FanDuel. These games are available on separate Thursday slates.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Tennessee Titans – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Tennessee’s salary ranks them 12th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Bears at 42 points (3rd lowest on the board) with the Titans as -5 point road favorites.
Tennessee’s defense ranks 7th in rushing yards allowed (92.1), 24th in passing yards allowed (266.2), and 23rd in points allowed (25.0). Tennessee ranks tied for 20th in takeaways (11) but tied for 3rd in sacks (30). Tennessee also ranks 22nd against QBs (18.3), 10th against RBs (15.9), 22nd against WRs (24.61), and 23rd against TEs (8.09) in fantasy points allowed. Tennessee recorded 2 sacks and a pick against Andrew Luck last week.
Chicago’s offense ranks 20th in rush yards gained (98.8), 19th in pass yards gained (245.3), and 31st in points scored (15.7). Chicago also ranks 26th (tied) in turnover differential at -6. The Giants recorded four sacks, a pick, and held the Bears to 16 points last week.
With QB Jay Cutler (shoulder) possibly done for the rest of the season, and with the Bears, noodle-armed Matt Barkley will get the start. With WR1 Alshon Jeffery (PED suspension) out until week 15 and TE1 Zach Miller (broken foot) out for the rest of the season, Chicago (2-8) will spend the rest of the season evaluating for 2017 and competing for draft picks. Opposing defenses against Chicago will be popular plays for the rest of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4300. Pittsburgh’s salary ranks them 12th/15th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Colts at 47.5 points with the Steelers as -9 point (widest on the board) road favorites.
Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 9th in rushing yards allowed (95.7), 26th in passing yards allowed (267.9), and 12th (tied) in points allowed (21.5). Pittsburgh ranks tied for 17th in takeaways (12) and tied for 16st in sacks (21). Pittsburgh also ranks 9th against QBs (15.68), 30th against RBs (22.71), 4th against WRs (19.32), and 18th against TEs (7.44) in fantasy points allowed. Pittsburgh recorded 8 sacks, 2 turnovers, a defensive TD, and gave up 9 points at Cleveland last week in leading the league in defensive fantasy points scored with 22.
Indianapolis’ offense ranks 24th in rush yards gained (95.8), 12th in pass yards gained (260.8), and 7th in points scored (26.3), with Andrew Luck under center. The Colts also give up the second most sacks with 35.
Andrew Luck (concussion) is in the protocol, and with the short week, it is expected that Scott Tolzien will make the start. With the implied game script, Tolzien may not be able to hide entirely behind Frank Gore, which should give the Steeler defense ample opportunity to rack up points.
Baltimore Ravens – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Baltimore’s salary ranks them 8th/10th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Bengals at 40.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Ravens as -4.5 point home favorites.
Baltimore’s defense ranks 1st in rushing yards allowed (76.0), 7th in passing yards allowed (219.1), and 5th (tied) in points allowed (18.7). Baltimore ranks tied for 5th in takeaways with 17 and tied for 12th in sacks with 23. Baltimore also ranks 10th against QBs (15.77), 2nd against RBs (12.7), 29th against WRs (26.8), and 2nd against TEs (3.53) in fantasy points allowed.
Cincinnati’s offense ranks 12th in rush yards gained (113.3), 14th in pass yards gained (259.4), and 25th (tied) in points scored (19.9). Cincinnati also ranks 11th (tied) in giveaways with 11. The Bills recorded one sack, two picks, and held the Bengals to 12 points last week.
A.J. Green (hamstring) and Gio Bernard (torn ACL) have been ruled out this week, leaving the Bengals very short on viable offensive weapons, leaving Tyler Eifert and Jeremy Hill with awful matchups.
New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. The Giants’ salary ranks them 3rd/5th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Browns at 44.5 points with the Giants as -7 point road favorites.
The Giants’ defense ranks 8th in rushing yards allowed (92.2), 20th in passing yards allowed (262.7), and 11th in points allowed (20.0). New York ranks tied for 5th in interceptions (10) but 29th in sacks (18). New York also ranks 2nd against QBs (12.95), 17th against RBs (17.02), 10th against WRs (22.25), and 11th against TEs (6.69) in fantasy points allowed. The Giants logged four sacks, a pick, and held the Bears to 16 points last week.
Cleveland’s offense ranks 25th in rush yards gained (93.0), 27th in pass yards gained (218.1), and 30th in points scored (16.7). The Browns also give up the most sacks with 38 and give up the 3rd (tied) most picks with 12. Pittsburgh dropped 8 sacks, a pick, recovered a fumble for a TD, and gave up 9 points at Cleveland last week.
Cody Kessler (concussion) has been ruled out so the Browns are going back to Josh McCown. The Giants get their turn against the winless Browns, and although not a relatively cheap play, the G-Men should potentially bring one of the top two safest floors if the salary cap will allow.
Check out the Week 12 DFS value player picks here.
Check out the Week 12 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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