NFL Week 11: November 17th – 21st, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 11.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Oakland Raiders – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2800, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. Oakland’s salary ranks them 12th/14th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Texans at 46 points with the Raiders as -6 point favorites in Mexico City, returning from their bye.
Oakland’s defense ranks 21st in rushing yards allowed (114.8), 30th in passing yards allowed (283.2), and 21st in points allowed (24.8). Oakland does rank tied for 8th in takeaways (15) but tied for 31st in sacks (13). Oakland also ranks 25th against QBs (18.72), 23rd against RBs (20.26), 25th against WRs (25.7), and 25th against TEs (8.92) in fantasy points allowed. Oakland recorded 2 sacks, 1 pick, and 1 lost fumble against Trevor Siemian in week 9.
Houston’s offense ranks 5th in rush yards gained (121.4), last in pass yards gained (187.1), and 29th in points scored (17.9). Brock Osweiler ranks last (for starting QBs) in yards per attempt (5.61), 31st in passer rating (74.1) and tied for the 7th most picks (9).
Houston’s only potential offensive strength will be Lamar Miller in this matchup, but he faces an implied negative game script, which should pass-funnel with Osweiler. The Raiders defense has faced a tough opposing offensive schedule thus far, but will have their easiest matchup of the season with Houston. The most similar matchup the Raiders have had to date was a 33-16 win in Jacksonville where the Raiders recorded three turnovers and a sack.
Miami Dolphins – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4800. Miami’s salary ranks them 11th/6th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Rams at 40 points (lowest on the board) with the Dolphins as -1 point road favorites).
Miami’s defense ranks 30th in rushing yards allowed (128.8), 9th in passing yards allowed (235.6), and tied for 14th in points allowed (22.9). Miami ranks tied for 6th in picks (9), and 11th in sacks (22). Miami also ranks 16th against QBs (17.2), 11th against RBs (15.8), 26th against WRs (25.78), and 23rd against TEs (8.27) in fantasy points allowed. Miami recorded the second highest fantasy points last week with 17 against San Diego.
The Los Angeles offense ranks 29th in rush yards gained (82.6), 25th in pass yards gained (225.4), and last in points scored (15.4).
NFL ready or not, QB Jared Goff will make his debut this week. The one benefit here for the Rams, is that Miami won’t have any game film on him. That ends the positives for the Rams offense. Miami has averaged three sacks and three turnovers the past two games, with potential for similar production against the rookie.
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3100, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Arizona’s salary ranks them 8th/2nd on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on DK.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Vikings at 40.5 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the game as a pick ‘em in Minnesota.
Arizona’s defense ranks 12th in rushing yards allowed (100.0), 2nd in passing yards allowed (195.2), and tied for 3rd in points allowed (17.8). Arizona ranks tied for 6th in takeaways (16), and 8th in sacks (24). Arizona also ranks 5th against QBs (13.62), 2nd against RBs (12.59), 5th against WRs (20.04), and 1st against TEs (2.73) in fantasy points allowed.
The Minnesota offense ranks last in rush yards gained (69.8), 23rd in pass yards gained (232.6), and 26th in points scored (19.4). Sam Bradford has taken the 5th (tied) most sacks with 24.
Arizona gets a plus matchup across the board. Minnesota potentially should have a difficult time moving the ball in any fashion, with their best bet possibly coming from Stephon Diggs. Arizona’s potential of getting to the QB against one of the worst offensive lines could pay dividends here with a three sack floor.
New York Giants – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3500, FanDuel (FD) – 4700. New York’s salary ranks them 4th/7th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Bears at 45.5 points with the Giants as -7 point home favorites.
New York’s defense ranks 7th in rushing yards allowed (92.1), 22nd in passing yards allowed (267.2), and 11th in points allowed (20.4). New York ranks tied for 6th in picks (9) but 30th in sacks (14). New York also ranks 2nd against QBs (13.01), 16th against RBs (16.67), 12th against WRs (23.18), and 10th against TEs (6.09) in fantasy points allowed. The Giants logged three sacks and a pick against Andy Dalton in week 10.
Chicago’s offense ranks 21st in rush yards gained (99.4), 19th in pass yards gained (247.9), and 31st in points scored (15.7). Jay Cutler gave up 4 sacks, 2 picks (one was returned for a TD), and a lost fumble against Tampa Bay last week. Removing Cutler’s deflected Hail Mary 50 yard TD pass to Cam Meredith just before halftime, his line was 15/29, 132, 0:2.
Cutler’s favorite target hog, Alshon Jeffery, has been suspended four games for PEDs. If the Giants’ can contain Jordan Howard, which shouldn’t be a daunting endeavor by any means, another potential Cutler meltdown awaits the defense in New Jersey.
Check out the Week 11 DFS value player picks here.
Check out the Week 11 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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