NFL Week 10: November 10th – 14th, 2016
We’ll provide some insights and review some DFS value players for week 10.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
News updates will be made throughout the week as new information comes to light.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott (DAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6100, FanDuel (FD) – 7700. Prescott’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Prescott put up a line of 21/27, 247, 3:0 and added a 4-20-0 rushing line at Cleveland. Prescott’s fantasy points of 23.88 ranked him 8th/7th on DK/FD, respectively. Prescott’s price per point efficiency ranked him 7th on both DK/FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Steelers currently has the game total at 50 points (tied for highest on the board), with the Cowboys as +2.5 point road dogs.
Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 24th in pass yards allowed (276), 13tht in rush yards allowed (99.6), and 13th in points allowed (21.4) per game. The Steelers’ defense ranks 20th (tied) in takeaways with 9 and last (tied) in sacks with 11. Pittsburgh’s defense also ranks 11th against QBs (15.86), 29th against RBs (22.3), 4th against WRs (19.36), and 19th against TEs (7.53) in fantasy points allowed.
Dak brings a weekly solid floor option as his season scoring avg. of 20.16/19.91 rank him 13th/8th on DK/FD, respectively. Dak’s price per point efficiency averages ranks third behind only Matt Ryan and Tom Brady for full-time QBs, making him a consistent value as well. Dak is a viable red zone duel threat as his 4 rushing TDs leads all QBs.
Marcus Mariota (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5700, FanDuel (FD) – 7400. Mariota’s upcoming salary ranks him 16th/14th on DK/FD, respectively. Mariota put up a line of 27/43, 313, 3:2 and added a 14-51-1 rushing line with a lost fumble at San Diego. Mariota’s fantasy points of 31.92/27.92 ranked him 1st on both DK and FD. Mariota’s price per point efficiency ranked him 1st/2nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 49.5 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Titans as +2.5 point home dogs.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 17th in pass yards allowed (250.0), 1st in rush yards allowed (75.8), and 18th in points allowed (23.4) per game. The Packers’ defense ranks 14th (tied) in takeaways with 10 and 8th (tied) in sacks with 21. Green Bay’s defense also ranks 12th against QBs (15.93), 3rd against RBs (13.64), 23rd against WRs (25.71), and 21st against TEs (7.93) in fantasy points allowed.
Similar to Dak Prescott, Mariota brings a weekly solid floor as his season scoring avg. of 20.22/19.44 rank him 11th on both DK and FD. Mariota’s price per point efficiency averages ranks 4th/6th for full-time QBs, making him a solid value as well.
Running Back
Darren Sproles (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4300, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Sproles’ upcoming salary ranks him 33rd/46th on DK/FD, respectively. Sproles put up a line of 13-57-0 and 3-14-0 on 9 targets (2nd on team) against the Giants in New York last week. Sproles’ fantasy points of 10.1/8.6 ranked him 21st on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line with the Falcons currently has the game total at 50 points (tied for highest on the board), with the Eagles and Falcons in a pick ‘em game in Philadelphia.
The Falcons’ defense ranks 31st in pass yards allowed (289.6), 7th in rush yards allowed (91.6), and 28th in points allowed (28.8) per game. The Falcons’ defense ranks 26th DVOA to RBs against the pass. For reference, the Giants rank 5th DVOA to RBs against the pass. The Falcons’ defense also ranks 20th against RBs (19.81) in fantasy points allowed.
The Eagles’ RB1 Sproles gets a much better matchup this week as the implied game total should keep him active in both the ground and air game. HC Pederson has stated a desire for Wentz to throw less, after Wentz had attempts of 47 and 43 the past two games, both resulting in losses. Sproles gets the potential scoring bonus of returning punts but may lose goal line looks to backup Ryan Mathews. At his super cheap price tag, he makes a potential pivot off of the chalk RBs this week.
Jonathan Stewart (CAR) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4900, FanDuel (FD) – 6800. Stewart’s upcoming salary ranks him 25th/16th on DK/FD, respectively. Stewart put up a line of 15-42-0 at Los Angeles last week.
The Vegas line with the Chiefs currently has the game total at 44 points, with the Panthers as -3 point home favorites.
The Chiefs’ defense ranks 14th in pass yards allowed (244.8), 27th in rush yards allowed (124.5), and 8th in points allowed (18.9) per game. The Chiefs’ defense also ranks 19th against RBs (17.93) in fantasy points allowed. Chris Ivory/T.J. Yeldon had a combined line of 25-140-0 and 6-32-1 on 7 targets and two fumbles lost in Kansas City last week. Ivory’s fumble occurred on the goal line.
The matchup for Carolina should potentially be better on the ground where Stewart dominates touches along with an implied positive game script.
Wide Receiver
Rishard Matthews (TEN) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4200, FanDuel (FD) – 5800. Matthews’ upcoming salary ranks him 47th/37th on DK/FD, respectively. Matthews put up a line of 6-63-2 on 10 targets (team high) at San Diego last week. Matthews’ fantasy points of 24.3/21.3 ranked him 6th/3rd on DK/FD, respectively. Matthews’ price per point efficiency ranked him 3rd/1st on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The Vegas line with the Packers currently has the game total at 49.5 points (3rd highest on the board), with the Titans as +2.5 point home dogs.
Green Bay’s defense ranks 17th in pass yards allowed (250.0), 1st in rush yards allowed (75.8), and 18th in points allowed (23.4) per game. Green Bay’s defense also ranks 23rd against WRs (25.71) in fantasy points allowed.
Tennessee’s top two receiving options have season-to-date lines of 33-447-4 on 51 targets and 33-420-5 on 48 targets. These stat lines respectively belong to Delanie Walker and Matthews. However, in the red zone Matthews ranks second on the team in targets (7) and catches (7) to DeMarco Murray and first in red zone TDs (5). Matthews gets a solid home matchup where DeMarco Murray’s matchup isn’t ideal. This could lead to ample opportunities for Matthews in a potential shootout against Aaron Rodgers and co.
Steve Smith Sr. (BAL) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Smith’s upcoming salary ranks him 30th/50th on DK/FD, respectively. Smith posted a line of 4-47-0 on 7 targets (team high) against Pittsburgh last week in his first game back after missing multiple weeks with an ankle injury.
The Vegas line with the Browns currently has the game total at 45 points, with the Ravens as -9.5 point home favorites.
Cleveland’s defense ranks 23rd in pass yards allowed (275.2), 31st in rush yards allowed (146.4), and 31st in points allowed (30.3) per game. Cleveland’s defense ranks 23rd (tied) in takeaways (8) and 26th (tied) in sacks (14). Cleveland’s defense also ranks 25th against WRs (26.0) in fantasy points allowed.
Smith looks to have recovered from his ankle issue as he led all Raven receivers with 83% of the offensive snaps. He’ll get a solid matchup against a bad defense that’s especially susceptible to slot receivers. Despite the implied negative game script, the price tag and matchup should have Smith as a viable value option.
Tight End
Lance Kendricks (LA) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 4500. Kendricks’ upcoming salary ranks him 20th/27th (tied) on DK/FD, respectively. Kendricks posted a line of 7-90-0 on 12 targets (team high) against Carolina last week. Kendricks’ fantasy points of 16.0/12.5 ranked him 7th/9th on DK/FD, respectively. Kendricks’ price per point efficiency ranked him 5th on both DK and FD for the position.
The Vegas line with the Jets currently has the game total at 39.5 points (lowest on the board), with the Rams as +2 point road dogs.
The Jets’ defense ranks 22nd in pass yards allowed (272.2), 4th in rush yards allowed (81.0), and 24th in points allowed (26.1) per game. The Jets’ defense ranks 23rd (tied) in takeaways (8) and 21st (tied) in sacks (16). The Jets’ defense also ranks 20th against TEs (7.82) in fantasy points allowed.
RB Todd Gurley looks to have another long day ahead of him, which should lead to another pass-funnel scenario for Case Keenum. In the past two games under similar circumstances against the Giants and Panthers, Keenum made 46 and 53 attempts for over 290 yards in each of those games. Kendricks had targets of 12 and 9 for 14 total catches during these games. This matchup should setup for similar results.
Zach Miller (CHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600, FanDuel (FD) – 5400. Miller’s upcoming salary ranks him 12th/11th on DK/FD, respectively. Miller posted a line of 7-88-0 on 10 targets (team high) against Minnesota in week 8 (week 9 bye)..
The Vegas line with the Bucs currently has the game total at 46 points, with the Bears as -1 point road favorites.
The Bucs’ defense ranks 27th in pass yards allowed (281.0), 25th in rush yards allowed (117.9), and 29th in points allowed (29.0) per game. Tampa Bay’s defense ranks 11th (tied) in takeaways (11) and 18th (tied) in sacks (17). Tampa Bay’s defense also ranks 23rd against TEs (8.11) in fantasy points allowed.
Miller’s season-to-date stat line of 40-393-3 on 55 targets has him ranked first in TDs and receptions and second in yards and targets on the team. Miller has a solid matchup on deck along with an inexpensive price tag.
Check out the Week 10 Defense value picks here.
Check out the Week 10 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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