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NFL Week 10: November 10th – 14th, 2016
We’ll provide some details and insights on some potential daily fantasy defense/special team value plays for week 10.
Vegas lines are as of the time of this writing.
Defense
Los Angeles Rams – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2900, FanDuel (FD) – 4600. Los Angeles’ salary ranks them 12th/8th on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Jets at 39.5 points (lowest on the board) with the Rams as +2 point road dogs.
Los Angeles’ defense ranks 11th in rushing yards allowed (98.6), 9th in passing yards allowed (232.3), and tied for 11th in points allowed (20.9). Los Angeles also ranks 9th against QBs (15.72), 7th against RBs (14.95), 18th against WRs (24.04), and 11th against TEs (6.61) in fantasy points allowed.
The Jets’ offense ranks 12th in rush yards gained (113.4), 26th in pass yards gained (226.3), and tied for 27th in points scored (19.2). The Jets lead the league in interceptions thrown with 14 and rank 10th in sacks given up (20).
Ryan Fitzpatrick (MCL) is projected to get the start which is fine by the Rams. Miami dropped 3 sacks and 2 picks on Fitzpatrick last week and also added a kickoff return TD. The Rams sacked Cam Newton five times last week and have a solid matchup, despite the west-to-east coast travel date.
Washington Redskins – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000, FanDuel (FD) – 4400. Washington’s salary ranks them 9th/18th on DK/FD, respectively, making them a better relative value on FD.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Vikings at 42 points (2nd lowest on the board) with the Redskins as -3 point home favorites, returning from their bye.
Washington’s defense ranks 26th in rushing yards allowed (123.8), tied for 15th in passing yards allowed (246), and tied for 19th in points allowed (23.6). However, Washington does rank 7th in sacks (22). Washington also ranks 8th against QBs (15.36), 25th against RBs (21.23), 9th against WRs (22.2), and 15th against TEs (6.93) in fantasy points allowed. Washington recorded 3 sacks, 1 pick, and 1 lost fumble against Andy Dalton in week 8.
Minnesota’s offense ranks 31st in rush yards gained (72.6), 27th in pass yards gained (226.1), and 25th in points scored (19.4). Minnesota also gives up the 8th most sacks (21).
Minnesota may not be able to take advantage of Washington’s biggest weakness, as their RBs are bereft of talent behind possibly the worst offensive line in the league. If Washington can contain Minnesota’s run game, the positive matchup will be the potential sack opportunities on Sam Bradford.
Chalk Plays:
Baltimore Ravens – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5100. Baltimore’s salary ranks them 2nd on both DK and FD.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the Browns at 45 points with the Ravens as -10 point home favorites (2nd widest spread on the board).
Baltimore’s defense ranks 2nd in rushing yards allowed (76.1), 7th in passing yards allowed (222.6), and 9th in points allowed (19.1). Baltimore ranks tied for 8th in takeaways (14), 4th in picks (9), and 15th in sacks (18). Baltimore also ranks 13th against QBs (15.96), 1st against RBs (13.0), 29th against WRs (26.89), and 2nd against TEs (3.63) in fantasy points allowed.
The Cleveland offense ranks 20th in rush yards gained (106.3), 23rd in pass yards gained (234.7), and 29th in points scored (18.7). Cleveland also ranks 2nd highest in sacks taken with 26.
Baltimore’s 13 fantasy points last week against Pittsburgh ranked them 2nd highest. The Ravens should have an easier go at it with the Browns. The implied game script and matchup should force Cleveland into a predictable pass-funnel offense where Baltimore may have ample opportunity to tee off against a unit that gave up 4 sacks to Dallas last week.
Arizona Cardinals – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3700, FanDuel (FD) – 5200. Arizona’s salary ranks them 2nd/1st on DK/FD, respectively.
The Vegas line currently has the game total with the 49ers at 48.5 points with the Cardinals as -13.5 point home favorites (widest spread on the board).
Arizona’s defense ranks 16th in rushing yards allowed (102.1), 3rd in passing yards allowed (194.9), and tied for 4th in points allowed (17.5). Arizona ranks tied for 5th in takeaways (15), 4th in picks (9), and 8th in sacks (21). Arizona also ranks 2nd against QBs (12.33), 5th against RBs (12.33), 5th against WRs (20.05), and 1st against TEs (2.45) in fantasy points allowed.
The San Francisco offense ranks 5th in rush yards gained (124.1), 31st in pass yards gained (190.4), and tied for 21st in points scored (20.9). San Francisco QBs also rank 30th in passer rating (73.8).
Coming off their bye, Arizona gets their turn against the Niners. RB Carlos Hyde (shoulder) has missed the past two games and his current playing status is unknown. DuJuan Harris gets the start again if Hyde is ultimately a no-go. Arizona may be the safest play of the week, with perhaps the plausible risk of giving up garbage points with the game out of hand. TOP should be dictated by the Arizona offense at will with David Johnson, leaving a fresh defense to target Colin Kaepernick.
Check out the Week 10 DFS value player picks here.
Check out the Week 10 schedule with current spreads/totals/byes here.
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