NFL Week 1 DFS Value Player Picks
NFL Week 1: September 9 – 13, 2021
We’ll take an early look at some DraftKings and FanDuel salaries, provide some insights, and review some DFS value players for week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.
Salary ranks are based on the main-slate Sunday only (13 games).
Betting lines are as of the time of this writing.
Of course, anything can happen daily, so updates will be made as new info comes to light prior to Sunday kickoff.
Quarterback
Jalen Hurts (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400 (12.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7600 (12.7% of cap). Hurts’ upcoming salary ranks him 9th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Falcons has the game total at 48 points with the Eagles as +3.5 point road dogs. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 22.25 points and the Falcons are currently at 25.75 points.
Last season, the Falcons’ defense gave up the most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and allowed the most passing yards last season. The Falcons’ defense also ranked 23rd in adjusted sack rate last season. The Falcons’ defense lost S Keanu Neal to the Cowboys in the offseason, and did very little to address their bottom-3 defense heading into this season. The Falcons’ bottom-3 secondary remains a big weakness.
Hurts should end up as a top-3 rusher for the position on the season, which gives him a solid weekly floor. The Eagles’ O-line will be a strength for the offense, so the matchup against the Falcons’ D-line will be favorable.
Baker Mayfield (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7100 (11.8% of cap). Mayfield’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/13th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Chiefs has the game total at 53.5 points (highest on the board) with the Browns as +6 point road dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 29.75 points.
Last season, the Chiefs ranked 24th in fantasy points allowed to QBs.
Mayfield will have the benefit of working behind the NFL’s top O-line. The Chiefs’ defense ranked 18th in adjusted sack rate last season. In a potential shootout scenario, Mayfield may need to shoulder the load to keep pace with the Chiefs in a favorable matchup.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5500 (11% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 6600 (11% of cap). Fitzpatrick’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/22nd on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Chargers has the game total at 44.5 points with the WFT as +1.5 point home dogs. The WFT’s implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Chargers are currently at 23 points. This is an early game.
Last season, the Chargers ranked 20th in fantasy points allowed to QBs and 17th in DVOA against the pass. However, the healthy return of S Derwin James this season will boost this secondary.
The WFT added some WR depth this season, bringing in Curtis Samuel, Adam Humphries, and 3rd round rookie Dyami Brown. Along with WR Terry McLaurin and TE Logan Thomas, both top 10 players at their respective positions, FitzMagic is surrounded by a nice arsenal, and brings an underpriced cost in a very winnable matchup. #YOLO
Running Back
James Robinson (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 6400 (12.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5900 (9.8% of cap). Robinson’s upcoming salary ranks him 13th/21st on DK/FD, respectively, making him a better relative value on FD.
The betting line with the Texans has the game total at 45 points, with the Jaguars as -3 point road favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Texans are currently at 21 points.
The Texans’ defense ranked last vs. RBs in FPs allowed, last in rush yards allowed, and 29th in rush DVOA. The Texans’ D-line is the worst in the league, as well as their defense overall.
The Jaguars O-line ranked 11th in adjusted line yards vs. the Texans’ D-line which ranked 28th. The Jaguars’ O-line isn’t good by any means, but they are better than the Texans’ D-line 🤮.
Last season’s fantasy RB6, Robinson gets a usage bump with the news that 1st round rookie RB Travis Etienne (Lisfranc) is out for the season. Robinson’s targets and catches ranked him in the top 10 for RBs last season. He should remain the 3rd-down option here.
Antonio Gibson (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 5900 (11.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 7000 (11.7% of cap). Gibson’s upcoming salary ranks him 17th/10th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Chargers has the game total at 44.5 points with the WFT as +1.5 point home dogs. The WFT’s implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Chargers are currently at 23 points.
Last season, the Chargers ranked 18th in fantasy points allowed to RBs and 26th in DVOA against the run.
Washington’s O-line ranked 16th in adjusted line yards vs. the Chargers’ D-line which ranked 22nd.
Gibson projects to flirt with 300 touches this season, and may have an increased passing role. He should see solid volume in this close, home matchup.
Wide Receiver
Rondale Moore (ARI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3000 (6% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 4900 (8.2% of cap). Moore’s upcoming salary ranks him 91st/78th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Titans has the game total at 51.5 points (2nd highest on the board) with the Cardinals as +3 point road dogs. The Cardinals’ implied team total is currently at 24.25 points and the Titans are currently at 27.25 points.
Last season, the Titans’ defense ranked 31st vs. WRs, and 29th in pass yards allowed. The Titans’ defense also ranked last in adjusted sack rate and 31st in pressure % last season. The addition of LB Bud Dupree may help the pass rush some.
The potential WR2/a for last season’s #2 fantasy QB, Moore offers a stone-minimum DK priced option with a solid matchup.
DeVonta Smith (PHI) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4500 (9% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5300 (8.8% of cap). Smith’s upcoming salary ranks him 45th/54th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Falcons has the game total at 48 points with the Eagles as +3.5 point road dogs. The Eagles’ implied team total is currently at 22.25 points and the Falcons are currently at 25.75 points.
Last season, the Falcons’ defense gave up the most fantasy points to opposing WRs and ranked 17th in DVOA against the pass.
The rookie projects to be the Eagles’ top WR this season on a very thin unit. Smith gets a very favorable matchup against a weak Falcons’ secondary and also provides for a cheap WR option.
Marvin Jones Jr. (JAX) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3600 (7.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5800 (9.7% of cap). Jones’ upcoming salary ranks him 72nd/31st on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a much better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Texans has the game total at 45 points, with the Jaguars as -3 point road favorites. The Jaguars’ implied team total is currently at 24 points and the Texans are currently at 21 points.
Last season, the Texans’ defense ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 29th in DVOA against the pass. The Texans should be fielding the worst overall defense in the NFL this season. The Texans will also be without one of their top defensive players in RCB Bradley Roby (PEDs), who is suspended for week 1.
The Jaguars starting 3 WRs project to produce similarly this season, but the veteran is the unit leader, and is priced grossly less than the other two in week 1 on DK.
UPDATE:
Jones (AC sprain) is expected to be available in week 1.
Marquez Callaway (NO) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 3400 (6.8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5200 (8.7% of cap). Callaway’s upcoming salary ranks him 79th/58th on DK/FD, respectively for the position, making him a better relative value on DK.
The betting line with the Packers has the game total at 50 points with the Saints as +3 point road dogs. The Saints’ implied team total is currently at 23.5 points and the Packers are currently at 26.5 points.
Last season, the Packers’ defense ranked 4th in fantasy points allowed to WRs and 14th in DVOA against the pass.
Until WR Michael Thomas (ankle) returns, Callaway may very well be the temporary WR1 for the Saints, and is priced much less than teammate Tre’Quan Smith (35th on DK).
UPDATE:
WR Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring) has been placed on IR.
Tight End
Logan Thomas (WAS) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4600 (9.2% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5600 (9.3% of cap). Thomas’ upcoming salary ranks him 6th/7th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Chargers has the game total at 44.5 points with the WFT as +1.5 point home dogs. The WFT’s implied team total is currently at 21.5 points and the Chargers are currently at 23 points.
Last season, the Chargers ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Last season’s overall fantasy TE3, Thomas led Washington in all red zone receiving categories. Thomas projects as their 3rd receiving option, behind WRs Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel. Not a bad spot for when the FitzMagic game hits.
UPDATE:
WR Curtis Samuel (groin) has now been placed on IR.
Austin Hooper (CLE) – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 4000 (8% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 5100 (8.5% of cap). Smith’s upcoming salary ranks him 14th/15th on DK/FD, respectively for the position.
The betting line with the Chiefs has the game total at 53.5 points (highest on the board) with the Browns as +6 point road dogs. The Browns’ implied team total is currently at 23.75 points and the Chiefs are currently at 29.75 points.
Last season, the Chiefs ranked 26th in fantasy points allowed to TEs and 16th in DVOA against the pass.
If the implied negative-script holds for the Browns, a volume bump along with a favorable matchup makes Hooper a potential value in a possible shootout scenario.
Defense – DST
Buffalo Bills – Salaries: DraftKings (DK) – 2500 (5% of cap), FanDuel (FD) – 3600 (6% of cap). The Bills’ salary ranks them 16th/18th on DK/FD, respectively.
The betting line with the Steelers has the game total at 50.5 points with the Bills as -7 point home favorites. The Bills’ implied team total is currently at 28.75 points and the Steelers are currently at 21.75 points.
The Steelers’ field the league’s worst O-line. And after having lost C Maurkice Pouncey, G David DeCastro, and LT Alejandro Villanueva in the offseason, are wide open for problems (sacks, holding penalties). The Bills’ front-7 projects as average but the secondary is strong.
If the game-script holds for the Bills, for better or worse, Big Ben would be forced to shoulder the offense behind this turnstile O-line. Ben had the shortest time to throw in the league at 2.3 seconds last season. He also had the 4th lowest completed air yards (4.6) behind only Brandon Allen, Jimmy G, and the WFT QBs (D. Haskins/A. Smith). The Bills’ defense shouldn’t have issues against a one-dimensional offense playing on a shortened field.
